This probably sounds crazy... I think in the next ten years there will be a cultural shift away from carrying any form of electronics on yourself. That's including mobile phones and media devices.
One of the things I find most striking when watching old movies is the general attitude of people toward tech.
If you look at movies from the 70s and 80s, conspicuous display of tech was common. Look at stereo systems of the time, and how people treated mobile phones (they were huge and conspicuously displayed). This partially echoes the "machine age" [1] of the early 20th century, a a time when tech was seen as "modern" and a force for progress.
Whereas these days, we want things to be light, invisible, and out of the way. That's a major change in attitude.
I actually feel we might see fewer "screens" in the next few years if the combination of voice and AI becomes powerful enough that most things can be done by voice or thought. I think more and more decision-making (things like which plane to book/flight to take/etc) will be made by automated systems that know our preferences and we'll be picking from fewer and fewer menus. Sort of like a human assistant, but available to the masses and more accurate. Google's Duplex is a big step in this direction. The key is ceding more decision-making authority to software.
In any case, I wouldn't be surprised if we all just have earphones, either over-the-ear, or implanted in our heads, in 15 years. The broader theme is that I think we'll want things to be invisible rather than visible.
I also think you're right that the rich will want less of this stuff. There's already a huge socioeconomic difference in how people use tech. Look at how a rich family eats in the US today vs. a poor family. Rich families put their phones away, poor families spend the entire dinner posting stuff on Snap. Just walk into a burger king vs. a fine dining restaurant to see that trend in action.
This reminds of an interesting story from Robert Caro's great biography of Robert Moses (The Power Broker). Very paraphrased from memory, but:
Robert Moses built large parts of New York City, including a lot of its roads/infrastructure. When Moses was growing up, cars were very new, and a luxury item. Driving through a scenic route was a very fun experience for most people. Therefore, Moses built the roads to emphasize these scenic routes.
This later became problematic, as he kept doing it well into the age when being in a car was considered a nuisance, rather than an attraction.
My phones been in the shop for the last week thanks to an unfortunate incident with the washing machine and it's given me some new perspectives. Many of what I'd call "vital" features of a smartphone now seem to be net negatives, others are only important because I don't have the old way anymore.
PT App: I didn't realize how frequently I checked my light rail app, telling me how long until the next one arrives. Now that I don't have it I realize it only added stress for something largely out of my control, knowing if the next one is 3 minutes or 5 minutes away doesn't affect when I'll get to work. It would still be useful in some situations but I hope to use it a lot less in future.
Clock: My phone was my watch and like the PT app this mostly cause stress about arriving to work on time which mostly involved factors beyond my control. I just try to leave this house on time and I'll get there when I get there.
Reddit: Haven't missed it. Again it's probably adding stress for no real gain.
Internet: Haven't missed it.
Alarm Clock: Miraculously I haven't slept in during the last week and most day's I'm up earlier because can't roll over and go back to sleep without the alarm clock telling me to get up. I could also buy a dedicated alarm clock, it's very rare I get any value from a portable one.
Phone: This one wouldn't generally worry me but this week I've had a sick family member and really needed it. If I had a home phone that would have been more than enough, maybe I should get an IP phone again.
Weather: Turns out the seven day forecast is just noise I don't really need. The morning news tells me if I'll need to wear another layer or not and that's enough.
Music and E-books: This is the one feature I've really missed.
Overall it's amazing how much time and money I've spent on these little devices that offer very little value.
I find it very hard to believe that we would give up the security of having cell phones for emergencies, but perhaps extremely simplified phones (several of which already exist but are not popular AFAICT) will abound.
I think you're probably right. I suspect it will get a bit worse for a while, but eventually I expect some sort of collective epiphany that our mobile devices are ruling us, instead of the other way around.
But maybe I'm letting hope sneak into my predictions.
eldavido|7 years ago
If you look at movies from the 70s and 80s, conspicuous display of tech was common. Look at stereo systems of the time, and how people treated mobile phones (they were huge and conspicuously displayed). This partially echoes the "machine age" [1] of the early 20th century, a a time when tech was seen as "modern" and a force for progress.
Whereas these days, we want things to be light, invisible, and out of the way. That's a major change in attitude.
I actually feel we might see fewer "screens" in the next few years if the combination of voice and AI becomes powerful enough that most things can be done by voice or thought. I think more and more decision-making (things like which plane to book/flight to take/etc) will be made by automated systems that know our preferences and we'll be picking from fewer and fewer menus. Sort of like a human assistant, but available to the masses and more accurate. Google's Duplex is a big step in this direction. The key is ceding more decision-making authority to software.
In any case, I wouldn't be surprised if we all just have earphones, either over-the-ear, or implanted in our heads, in 15 years. The broader theme is that I think we'll want things to be invisible rather than visible.
I also think you're right that the rich will want less of this stuff. There's already a huge socioeconomic difference in how people use tech. Look at how a rich family eats in the US today vs. a poor family. Rich families put their phones away, poor families spend the entire dinner posting stuff on Snap. Just walk into a burger king vs. a fine dining restaurant to see that trend in action.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machine_Age
edanm|7 years ago
Robert Moses built large parts of New York City, including a lot of its roads/infrastructure. When Moses was growing up, cars were very new, and a luxury item. Driving through a scenic route was a very fun experience for most people. Therefore, Moses built the roads to emphasize these scenic routes.
This later became problematic, as he kept doing it well into the age when being in a car was considered a nuisance, rather than an attraction.
flukus|7 years ago
PT App: I didn't realize how frequently I checked my light rail app, telling me how long until the next one arrives. Now that I don't have it I realize it only added stress for something largely out of my control, knowing if the next one is 3 minutes or 5 minutes away doesn't affect when I'll get to work. It would still be useful in some situations but I hope to use it a lot less in future.
Clock: My phone was my watch and like the PT app this mostly cause stress about arriving to work on time which mostly involved factors beyond my control. I just try to leave this house on time and I'll get there when I get there.
Reddit: Haven't missed it. Again it's probably adding stress for no real gain.
Internet: Haven't missed it.
Alarm Clock: Miraculously I haven't slept in during the last week and most day's I'm up earlier because can't roll over and go back to sleep without the alarm clock telling me to get up. I could also buy a dedicated alarm clock, it's very rare I get any value from a portable one.
Phone: This one wouldn't generally worry me but this week I've had a sick family member and really needed it. If I had a home phone that would have been more than enough, maybe I should get an IP phone again.
Weather: Turns out the seven day forecast is just noise I don't really need. The morning news tells me if I'll need to wear another layer or not and that's enough.
Music and E-books: This is the one feature I've really missed.
Overall it's amazing how much time and money I've spent on these little devices that offer very little value.
baddox|7 years ago
rootusrootus|7 years ago
But maybe I'm letting hope sneak into my predictions.