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You are correct, in that AI experts may not be the best predictors for AGI. For one, they spend their lives working towards the goal of AGI, so it would require a huge amount of cognitive dissonance for them to say that AGI is impossible or very very far on the horizon.

Philosophers and futurists are better suited to hypothesize an AGI timeline.

But you take it too far by saying it is anyone's game.

Game theory, security, and economic competition makes it impossible to globally ban AI. The incentives to automate the economy (compare AI revolution with industrial revolution) and to weaponize AI (Manhattan Project for intelligence) are just too big. We are already seeing that the US focus on fair and ethical AI puts them at a disadvantage against China and Russia. AGI must require pervasive surveillance of the populace, but the Luddites are holding this back.

I suggest you learn to stop worrying about the bomb, and start planning for its arrival.