[carboy]

I think we passed the tipping point for the climate 25 years ago, we just didn’t know it, or even today full grasp it.

I was saying 10 years ago they by 2024-2028 we would see runaway climate changes.

I have friends and relatives that are climate related research scientists. 10, 5, and 3 years ago they thought I was crazy, last year they have all expressed concerns that I might have underestimated the speed of change. They are very scared.

I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think I am.

[KnightOfWords]

Depends what you mean by 'runaway climate change'. It takes some time for climate to stabilize, even if we stopped all carbon emission now it would take a few decades for the planet to reach equilibrium. We've certainly reached the point where significant impacts are going to be felt but not necessarily to the point where, say, the Earth loses all polar ice and remains hot for tens of thousands of years.

> I was saying 10 years ago they by 2024-2028 we would see runaway climate changes.

> 10, 5, and 3 years ago they thought I was crazy, last year they have all expressed concerns that I might have underestimated the speed of change.

It's important to recognise that neither you nor I have the expertise to truly assess this. The climate models are the best we have but there are various uncertainties. I'm also concerned that they may turn out to be too conservative but it will take many years to find out.

The most optimistic scenario is that the models break in our favour, serious action is taken, technology bails us out somewhat and investment in low-carbon energy and sustainable farming provides employment. The worst case scenario is that crop yields and fisheries collapse well before the end of the century.