No surprise that countries with the most oppressive internet surveillance and censorship also rank highly in self reported satisfaction. Chinese citizens probably got a boost to their social credit score for answering positively on this survey.
I was just in Beijing and Shanghai for a few weeks and almost everyone I talked to in private admitted that they expect an economic crash in the near future. So this survey is essentially useless for countries where privacy on the internet is not expected and dissent is punished.
> almost everyone I talked to in private admitted that they expect an economic crash in the near future
That is currently the same in every country I talked to citizens. Not a very good way of measuring.
Your observations about China might very well be correct, but this is not an interesting point imho. When I speak to my friends in China they worry about the economy but they do actually believe their country is going in the right direction generally. Ofcourse my sample of the populous is limited: I speak to tech people only, but they do not care about the things you or I think they care or should care about. They are content with the way it is going.
There are techniques to ask sensitive questions on a survey without implicating individual respondents and still obtain useful answers on the aggregate [1]. I can only imagine Ipsos, being a survey firm, would have used some of these techniques.
I would be careful about generalizing from anecdata. Unless the people you talk to come from every strata in society and your sample is representative, your conclusion may be prone to sample bias.
> No surprise that countries with the most oppressive internet surveillance and censorship also rank highly in self reported satisfaction. Chinese citizens probably got a boost to their social credit score for answering positively on this survey.
How would the Chinese government determine what citizens vote on in anonymous internet polls? Supposedly, Ipsos Online Panel uses https connections and encrypts them using tls. More importantly, does Chinese citizens believe what they vote on in anonymous surveys affects their credit scores?
Many Chinese people will respond with positive results knowing the survey is held by a foreign agency, not because they are being oppressed, but because they get suspicious and defensive when being asked, and they don't like to see their country "lose face".
Also the majority of Chinese people do think China is on the right path, especially after seeing what's happening now in the US and Europe.
An average Chinese person doesn't think about current oppressive scheme as "bad", because we've had worse no more than 2 generations ago. They may even think an authoritative regime is better than your democracy. Normally they don't feel oppressed in their daily life.
The well educated, and those who have the privilege, opportunity, and capability to talk to a foreigner like you, have different opinions of course.
> No surprise that countries with the most oppressive internet surveillance and censorship also rank highly in self reported satisfaction
You can look at other sources, like the "Global Livability Index" [1] - it's voted on by the residents of each city, and does a great job of ranking what it's actually like to live in various countries and cities.
One may also conclude that not all the people around the world care about the things that Westerners care about.
People are generally happy if they have growing wages and access to good infrastructure.
> The remaining 11 countries surveyed: Brazil, Chile, China, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Peru, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey have lower levels of internet penetration and so these samples should instead be considered to represent a more affluent, connected population
I would extend that consideration to most of the countries shown in the results.
The survey is conducted monthly in 28 countries around the
world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries
included are Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada,
Chile, China, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, India,
Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Russia,
Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain,
Sweden, Turkey and the United States of America.
An international sample of 20,787 adults aged 18-64 in
Canada, Israel and the US, and aged 16-64 in all other
countries, were interviewed between August 24th 2018 and
September 7th 2018.
Approximately 1000+ individuals participated on a country by
country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel with the exception of
Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Peru,
Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea,
Sweden and Turkey, where each have a sample of
approximately 500+.
What worries me is that global warming is not one of the five major worries. Of course I understand that when you're unemployed, struggling to make ends meet, global warming is the least of your concerns.
The US results are strange. A lot fewer worry about healthcare and inequality/poverty than you would expect. In fact only Sweden worries less about the latter.
How many would you expect to worry? In a rich country with ample jobs and cheap food,I don't worry about it much either. I've seen poverty abroad, so maybe I just don't see what Americans call poverty as poverty.
Among the issues included on the survey, the four major concerns for Americans are:
- Healthcare (41%). This is up from May (36%).
- Crime & Violence (31%). This is down slightly from May (33%).
- Immigration Control (28%). This is up from May (24%).
- Moral Decline (24%). This is up slightly from May (22%).
The note about Sweden seems a bit off. It is now January and we still don't have a government formed since the election in September. The politicians have all showed their worst sides in not getting along and the trust in them has plummeted. At the same time there are clear signs of a recession coming.
Things are as gloomy as a Bergman-movie in Sweden. Sort of.
Seems this reflects to a large degree societal values and current debates rather than the"real" impact. Eg US has a lot bigger inequality and higher proportion of destitute people than most of Western/Northern Europe, so the only way to explain the German & Swedish vs US numbers would be by pointing to the values/expectations and ongoing discourse.
China... You have got to wonder is it that the past was so bad? That people aren't aware of how bad problems of eg corruption are? Or are they too scared to say their true opinion ..?
China has lifted 500 million people out of poverty in a generation. They're absolutely going in the net right direction, even accounting for corruption.
> China... You have got to wonder is it that the past was so bad? That people aren't aware of how bad problems of eg corruption are? Or are they too scared to say their true opinion ..?
I imagine it's more about the citizens feeling like the government and its leaders have a strong vision and mission for the future of china.
I think the same thing can be seen with the M.A.G.A. movement. Lots of people are ignoring problems they face on a daily basis and vote against their interests because they'd rather believe in an ideal that is bigger than themselves (even if that ideal is a farce).
Already in the November study, Brazil's confidence is up 22 percentage points, so yes things are happening. My confidence in Brazil has taken a dive, but I'm not voting there...
Parent makes the point glibly, but it is very serious.
I have considerable experience talking to people from one of the top places mentioned and the freedom to answer a survey is far from guaranteed.
To give you an idea of the scale of this (these are real, actual and exact numbers):
In that country (which I'll name as Northern East Soumania, a small autonomous island belonging to an African republic, or a similar African country) the President recently put in a bid to be able to stay President for life. This required constitutional changes, which were passed by the annual sitting of parliament.
The vote on this bid was 2,859 votes supporting lifting the term limit, 2 votes against lifting the term limit and 4 abstaining.
Can you imagine that? Can you imagine an American president at the end of their second term wanting to lift the term limit congressionally and out of 535 members of congress (435 in the house of representatives and 100 in the senate) 530 voting to remove the term limits, 2 voting against and 4 abstaining? (Actually since the basis is
535 instead of 2,859, I should divide the against and abstaining voted by 5.5)
I would personally not be surprised if the 2 "against" votes had serious consequences for their personal life, I mean things like not being able to travel and so forth. (Despite being members of parliament in that country.)
If I were a member of that country, I probably wouldn't feel free to say in a survey that the country was not headed in the right direction.
Weighting is done to make the sample more representative, because voluntary samples are always demographically biased. You can argue that the way they weight is wrong in some way, but it’s purpose is exactly to address representativeness of the survey.
So? No one said it was. Why make up a strawman just to reply?
We could come up with a long list of other things that also weren't claimed and rebut those as well but I don't really see how it helps advance the discussion.
Polls like this are not useful for anything. They are, at best, measuring the temperament of the citizens of a country, and some of them will be overly negative or positive about anything. It would be interesting if pollsters attempted to "correct for temperament"
[+] [-] ciguy|7 years ago|reply
I was just in Beijing and Shanghai for a few weeks and almost everyone I talked to in private admitted that they expect an economic crash in the near future. So this survey is essentially useless for countries where privacy on the internet is not expected and dissent is punished.
[+] [-] tluyben2|7 years ago|reply
That is currently the same in every country I talked to citizens. Not a very good way of measuring.
Your observations about China might very well be correct, but this is not an interesting point imho. When I speak to my friends in China they worry about the economy but they do actually believe their country is going in the right direction generally. Ofcourse my sample of the populous is limited: I speak to tech people only, but they do not care about the things you or I think they care or should care about. They are content with the way it is going.
[+] [-] shanghaiaway|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wenc|7 years ago|reply
I would be careful about generalizing from anecdata. Unless the people you talk to come from every strata in society and your sample is representative, your conclusion may be prone to sample bias.
[1] https://imai.fas.harvard.edu/talk/files/PolMeth10.pdf
[+] [-] bjourne|7 years ago|reply
How would the Chinese government determine what citizens vote on in anonymous internet polls? Supposedly, Ipsos Online Panel uses https connections and encrypts them using tls. More importantly, does Chinese citizens believe what they vote on in anonymous surveys affects their credit scores?
[+] [-] gastlygem|7 years ago|reply
Also the majority of Chinese people do think China is on the right path, especially after seeing what's happening now in the US and Europe.
An average Chinese person doesn't think about current oppressive scheme as "bad", because we've had worse no more than 2 generations ago. They may even think an authoritative regime is better than your democracy. Normally they don't feel oppressed in their daily life.
The well educated, and those who have the privilege, opportunity, and capability to talk to a foreigner like you, have different opinions of course.
[+] [-] grecy|7 years ago|reply
You can look at other sources, like the "Global Livability Index" [1] - it's voted on by the residents of each city, and does a great job of ranking what it's actually like to live in various countries and cities.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Liveability_Ranking
[+] [-] zachguo|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] stevespang|7 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] politelemon|7 years ago|reply
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/what-worries-world-se...
> The remaining 11 countries surveyed: Brazil, Chile, China, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, Peru, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey have lower levels of internet penetration and so these samples should instead be considered to represent a more affluent, connected population
I would extend that consideration to most of the countries shown in the results.
[+] [-] FrankDixon|7 years ago|reply
without actual details on its methodology, a study doesn‘t find anything.
- how are the surveyed chosen? - how do you make sure they are from the country they claim - what possible answers can they chose from - etc.
[+] [-] hliyan|7 years ago|reply
The survey is conducted monthly in 28 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries included are Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States of America.
An international sample of 20,787 adults aged 18-64 in Canada, Israel and the US, and aged 16-64 in all other countries, were interviewed between August 24th 2018 and September 7th 2018.
Approximately 1000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel with the exception of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey, where each have a sample of approximately 500+.
[+] [-] Farradfahren|7 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] mathieubordere|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] zachguo|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] the_mitsuhiko|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] yostrovs|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] zachguo|7 years ago|reply
- Healthcare (41%). This is up from May (36%). - Crime & Violence (31%). This is down slightly from May (33%). - Immigration Control (28%). This is up from May (24%). - Moral Decline (24%). This is up slightly from May (22%).
From the same source(2018 Dec Version): https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/what-worries-the-worl...
[+] [-] erikstarck|7 years ago|reply
Things are as gloomy as a Bergman-movie in Sweden. Sort of.
[+] [-] Jolter|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tuukkah|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dang|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] daureg|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pergadad|7 years ago|reply
China... You have got to wonder is it that the past was so bad? That people aren't aware of how bad problems of eg corruption are? Or are they too scared to say their true opinion ..?
[+] [-] DevX101|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bognition|7 years ago|reply
I imagine it's more about the citizens feeling like the government and its leaders have a strong vision and mission for the future of china.
I think the same thing can be seen with the M.A.G.A. movement. Lots of people are ignoring problems they face on a daily basis and vote against their interests because they'd rather believe in an ideal that is bigger than themselves (even if that ideal is a farce).
[+] [-] marcosdumay|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Jolter|7 years ago|reply
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/...
[+] [-] yzb|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wilhil|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] throwaway190113|7 years ago|reply
I have considerable experience talking to people from one of the top places mentioned and the freedom to answer a survey is far from guaranteed.
To give you an idea of the scale of this (these are real, actual and exact numbers):
In that country (which I'll name as Northern East Soumania, a small autonomous island belonging to an African republic, or a similar African country) the President recently put in a bid to be able to stay President for life. This required constitutional changes, which were passed by the annual sitting of parliament.
The vote on this bid was 2,859 votes supporting lifting the term limit, 2 votes against lifting the term limit and 4 abstaining.
Can you imagine that? Can you imagine an American president at the end of their second term wanting to lift the term limit congressionally and out of 535 members of congress (435 in the house of representatives and 100 in the senate) 530 voting to remove the term limits, 2 voting against and 4 abstaining? (Actually since the basis is 535 instead of 2,859, I should divide the against and abstaining voted by 5.5)
I would personally not be surprised if the 2 "against" votes had serious consequences for their personal life, I mean things like not being able to travel and so forth. (Despite being members of parliament in that country.)
If I were a member of that country, I probably wouldn't feel free to say in a survey that the country was not headed in the right direction.
[+] [-] lfnoise|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] avaku|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lolc|7 years ago|reply
Is it representative in some way?
> Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
No, just the opposite.
[+] [-] thejohnconway|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Cyclone_|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] freddie_mercury|7 years ago|reply
We could come up with a long list of other things that also weren't claimed and rebut those as well but I don't really see how it helps advance the discussion.
[+] [-] buboard|7 years ago|reply