> Today, 99% of 32-bit and 64-bit processors are RISC
> Concluding this historical review, we can say the marketplace settled the RISC-CISC debate; CISC won the later stages of the PC era, but RISC is winning the post-PC era
It is clear that his assessment is right, but isn't the 99% number too high ? Servers, laptops and desktops still run x86 and they are CISC ( unless you are counting x86 as RISC based on microcode )
> Many researchers assume they must stop short because fabricating chips is unaffordable. When designs are small, they are surprisingly inexpensive.
> High-level, domain-specific languages and architectures, freeing architects from the chains of proprietary instruction sets, along with demand from the public for improved security, will usher in a new golden age for computer architects. Aided by open source ecosystems, agilely developed chips will convincingly demonstrate advances and thereby accelerate commercial adoption.
It will be interesting if manufacturing also gets open sourced. There already seems to be a project attempting this : http://libresilicon.com/
There's an x86 processor in your desktop, but there are many more RISC processors doing things like controlling your hard drive. If you buy an AMD processors there's even an ARM core inside the x86 processor in the Platform Security Processor.
Add in all the microwaves, routers, the many processors in your car, and so on and 99% seems a bit high to me but not unreasonable.
I feel there's a long way to go there. The economic structure of the industry is against agility because "deployment" remains stubbornly expensive, and the product culture is also much more conservative.
> manufacturing also gets open sourced.
It's one of the most capital-intensive industries in the world, so I don't quite see how this would work? Libresilicon are offering a 1000nm (not a typo) process.
I assume they’re counting them as RISC cores plus microcode that makes them compatible with older x86 CISC designs. Modern x86 is RISC under the covers by any meaningful definition-/and also shares pretty much all the problems.
I guess if you take into account micros embedded in things like washing machines, kitchen appliances, smart home devices, cars, etc... the figure could get close to 99%.
The article specifically points out that Intel/AMD took on board all the lessons from RISC as they evolved the x86 series and now it's pretty much a RISC architecture too.
I remember being excited about The Machine [1] from HP:
"The Machine will be a complete replacement for current computer system architectures. There will be a new operating system, a new type of memory (memristors), and super-fast buses/peripheral interconnects (photonics)."
"HP says it will commercialize The Machine within a few years, “or fall on its face trying.”"
While HP's "The Machine" specifically appears to never have gone beyond the marketing phase, I think your excitement about the underlying technologies - silicon photonics combined with nonvolative memory combined with resource disaggregation - is valid [0], and they are probably coming.
You can buy NVM today [1], and building systems for resource disaggregation work is an active problem [2].
I think back to the old Cat Stevens song "I Want To Live In A Wigwam", except now I think maybe one day I'd like to live in a Faraday cage.
Computers, like guns, drugs, and any other invention of man are not inherently evil. All these things can be used for good or evil. Unfortunately, the fly in the ointment is human nature. With the convergence of cheaper but increased computing power and the monetization of personal information, I fear what the future holds. I hope I'm wrong, but it looks to me that humanity is doomed to forever live in a state total surveillance and control. We're seeing it happening already. Just the other day I saw an article that said that Sweden is going to tax people on the miles they drive. The very next day I saw another article saying Los Angeles is planning to do the same thing.
This fear mongering goes on since the days of Henry Ford. Technology has been a boon for many many people. I can't imagine a world with many more people dying or without access to information.
> As the architects of the Motorola 68000 and iAPX-432 both learned, the marketplace is rarely patient.
I hope this won't mean the Mill has no chance of success, or at least influencing the industry for the better. Every video seems to introduce interesting new ideas, or new takes on old ideas[0].
I'd hardly call this a "Golden Age", precisely because of the shortcomings mentioned in the article. Regardless of how you may re-architect a processor you will still end up hitting CMOS limitations in time.
To contrast my fantasy for "Golden Age" would be multiple viable replacements for CMOS that were actively being used in a variety of processors.
Modern arch has various inefficiencies which would be solved if we shifted focus to more parallelism and less complicated processors (maybe something like Amorphous Computing). This requires a different programming model from the sequential, imperative paradigm though.
Interesting article with a lot of great historical context. I think a significant part of the tl;dr is that the end of Dennard Scaling and trouble with Moore's law may mean that the best architecture will finally win out, rather than just the one with the best semiconductor design team behind it.
I'm a bit skeptical of the promise of DSAs, though it does seem we're already going that way. Curious what others think on that point.
The article didn't well on Dark Silicon but the idea is that as you can fit more structures on a chip but can't light up them all for power dissipation reasons it makes sense to include more and more specialized structures you only use for some purposes. With the rise of GPUs and specialized co-processor for things like media decoding and encryption we're certainly well on our way there. It would be nice to have an intermediate between the two in more places, like the Hexagon VLIW DSP that Qualcomm puts in its Snapdragon DSPs. And of course there are the even more specialized matrix convolution processors that everybody is designing and NVidia is now putting in its GPU.
I think the real question is if it will make sense to have FPGAs in wider use. Certainly not until the programming model improves...
I agree, my concern is where do DSAs go in a few generations? How many efficiency/performance gains can be had before hitting the same limits hampering general purpose processors today?
Quite possibly! Or maybe at install or link time. Or maybe we're looking at a future where almost all code goes through a JIT engine and you've only got a few normal cores that run the OS that manages everything. Or possible everything will be Javascript[1].
[+] [-] simula67|7 years ago|reply
> Concluding this historical review, we can say the marketplace settled the RISC-CISC debate; CISC won the later stages of the PC era, but RISC is winning the post-PC era
It is clear that his assessment is right, but isn't the 99% number too high ? Servers, laptops and desktops still run x86 and they are CISC ( unless you are counting x86 as RISC based on microcode )
> Many researchers assume they must stop short because fabricating chips is unaffordable. When designs are small, they are surprisingly inexpensive.
> High-level, domain-specific languages and architectures, freeing architects from the chains of proprietary instruction sets, along with demand from the public for improved security, will usher in a new golden age for computer architects. Aided by open source ecosystems, agilely developed chips will convincingly demonstrate advances and thereby accelerate commercial adoption.
It will be interesting if manufacturing also gets open sourced. There already seems to be a project attempting this : http://libresilicon.com/
[+] [-] Symmetry|7 years ago|reply
Add in all the microwaves, routers, the many processors in your car, and so on and 99% seems a bit high to me but not unreasonable.
[+] [-] pjc50|7 years ago|reply
I feel there's a long way to go there. The economic structure of the industry is against agility because "deployment" remains stubbornly expensive, and the product culture is also much more conservative.
> manufacturing also gets open sourced.
It's one of the most capital-intensive industries in the world, so I don't quite see how this would work? Libresilicon are offering a 1000nm (not a typo) process.
[+] [-] ghaff|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Kurtz79|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 3chelon|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] insulanian|7 years ago|reply
"The Machine will be a complete replacement for current computer system architectures. There will be a new operating system, a new type of memory (memristors), and super-fast buses/peripheral interconnects (photonics)."
"HP says it will commercialize The Machine within a few years, “or fall on its face trying.”"
It seems later happened...
[1] https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/184165-hp-bets-it-all-on...
[+] [-] akshayn|7 years ago|reply
You can buy NVM today [1], and building systems for resource disaggregation work is an active problem [2].
[0] https://www.usenix.org/conference/fast14/technical-sessions/...
[1] https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/memory-stor...
[2] https://www.usenix.org/system/files/osdi18-shan.pdf
[+] [-] na412|7 years ago|reply
So they will deliver it, it just won't be anything like what they promised.
[+] [-] DJBunnies|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ChucklesNorris|7 years ago|reply
Computers, like guns, drugs, and any other invention of man are not inherently evil. All these things can be used for good or evil. Unfortunately, the fly in the ointment is human nature. With the convergence of cheaper but increased computing power and the monetization of personal information, I fear what the future holds. I hope I'm wrong, but it looks to me that humanity is doomed to forever live in a state total surveillance and control. We're seeing it happening already. Just the other day I saw an article that said that Sweden is going to tax people on the miles they drive. The very next day I saw another article saying Los Angeles is planning to do the same thing.
Sigh... I'm glad I'm old.
[+] [-] robin_reala|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mav3rick|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 4thaccount|7 years ago|reply
Chuck Moore's "Green Arrays" is kinda cool and so is the Parallela board.
[+] [-] mpweiher|7 years ago|reply
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transputer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XCore_Architecture
SOAR (Smalltalk On A RISC), though the conclusion there was mostly that a plain old RISC will do. I wonder if that is still true today.
Rekursiv OO computer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rekursiv
NEC dataflow processor. https://books.google.de/books?id=qRrlBwAAQBAJ&pg=PA152&lpg=P...
[+] [-] agumonkey|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] vanderZwan|7 years ago|reply
I hope this won't mean the Mill has no chance of success, or at least influencing the industry for the better. Every video seems to introduce interesting new ideas, or new takes on old ideas[0].
https://millcomputing.com/
[+] [-] gbrown_|7 years ago|reply
To contrast my fantasy for "Golden Age" would be multiple viable replacements for CMOS that were actively being used in a variety of processors.
[+] [-] naasking|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pjc50|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cbkeller|7 years ago|reply
I'm a bit skeptical of the promise of DSAs, though it does seem we're already going that way. Curious what others think on that point.
[+] [-] Symmetry|7 years ago|reply
I think the real question is if it will make sense to have FPGAs in wider use. Certainly not until the programming model improves...
[+] [-] gbrown_|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ddingus|7 years ago|reply
RISC makes a lot of sense given compilers and many other possible optimizations?
However, there are increasing trends to put functions right into silicon too. Those frequently replace many instructions.
Will ML tech somehow make better sense of those things, and CISC in general?
[+] [-] Antonio123123|7 years ago|reply
That depends on the number of cores.
[+] [-] rblion|7 years ago|reply
The power of computing is redefining civilization, humanity.
[+] [-] deadpool007|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ranchpredictor|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] robin_reala|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Symmetry|7 years ago|reply
[1]https://www.destroyallsoftware.com/talks/the-birth-and-death....