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glenra | 7 years ago

An American getting struck by lightning might be on the order of a one-in-a-million annual risk, but it's still a really bad thing if it happens TO YOU, so it's sensible we minimize our risk by choosing not to go out on golf courses during thunderstorms or choosing to install lightning rods on church towers. (The low mathematical risk already prices in the fact that we take such measures - the risk level would be much higher if we didn't!)

Getting falsely accused of sexual impropriety may be a low risk (whatever the base rate might be), but it's still really bad if it happens TO YOU so it's sensible that we minimize our personal risk with relatively low-cost policies such as the Pence Rule. (Once again, the low risk already prices in the fact that some take some such measures - the risk would be much higher if they didn't.)

Terrorist attack basically doesn't ever happen (statistically speaking) while our attempts to prevent it via mechanisms like the TSA are absurdly costly to the point of sheer idiocy, but cheaper simpler policies like "don't swim where there have been recent shark sightings", "don't carry metal golf clubs around in a thunderstorm" and "don't put yourself at undue risk of false gossip or malicious attack" seem basically sensible and proportionate to the risk being addressed.

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