[MetricT]

If you're looking for a good predictor, look at the 10 yr/2 yr yield curve. When it inverts, a recession normally follows in 12-24 months, and it will likely invert in March.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

The smart money has been getting out of the market for some time. But you can't sell unless someone else wants to buy. So at the end of the business cycle there is usually a blizzard of "the economy will keep doing good" articles contrary to common sense, trying to get the rubes to buy so the smart money can bail, await the crash, and then buy the stock back at pennies on the dollar.