top | item 19467210 (no title) hire_charts | 7 years ago Can't you essentially fabricate this statistic by controlling for the amount of time that counts as "before", assuming the inverted curves happen more often than recessions? discuss order hn newest mannykannot|7 years ago I am guessing that "before" means that the inversion persisted until the economy was technically in recession. tfehring|7 years ago Not quite - see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M for reference. The grey areas are recessions, and values below 0 are inversions.To address the GP’s point, the relationship could be fabricated, but the data don’t indicate that that’s happening.
mannykannot|7 years ago I am guessing that "before" means that the inversion persisted until the economy was technically in recession. tfehring|7 years ago Not quite - see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M for reference. The grey areas are recessions, and values below 0 are inversions.To address the GP’s point, the relationship could be fabricated, but the data don’t indicate that that’s happening.
tfehring|7 years ago Not quite - see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M for reference. The grey areas are recessions, and values below 0 are inversions.To address the GP’s point, the relationship could be fabricated, but the data don’t indicate that that’s happening.
mannykannot|7 years ago
tfehring|7 years ago
To address the GP’s point, the relationship could be fabricated, but the data don’t indicate that that’s happening.