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carlos22 | 7 years ago

> Rising popularity of electric cars Currently very slow - needs to accelerate a lot to be significant in 2030 (thats only 11 years).

> increasing vehicle efficiency in general There is not much to gain, the vehicles are gaining weight in the last 2 decades (SUVs etc.). Thats eating up the small improvements in efficiency. A real big improvement is not in sight.

> potential legislation targeting climate change We can hope for that, but with Trump in charge and Merkel in Auto-Germany ruling the EU it won't really happen. Hopefully this will change.

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de_watcher|7 years ago

> Rising popularity of electric cars Currently very slow

Starting from the 2019 the range and price came to the point where they are suddenly viable in EU.

Then there will be a used electric car wave because of the low-power charging infrastructure catching up and making older short range models actually useful.

carlos22|7 years ago

Currently the prices of the used electric cars are crazy. You get a brand new gasoline car for the same price as an 6 year old VW e-up!. The Renault Zoe is still 30k EUR (including battery) for a small car with low to mid range (150 - 300km; depends on the model and year).

woodandsteel|7 years ago

> Rising popularity of electric cars Currently very slow - needs to accelerate a lot to be significant in 2030 (thats only 11 years).

S-curve, man, S-curve. The experts say that around 2023-25 sales prices of EV's will be down to equal ICE's, and EV sales will take off like a rocket.

carlos22|7 years ago

Well, we will see. As a German I can not believe it will happen, all our big car companies talking about it for like 8 years now. We had the goal of 1 mio. EV cars by 2020 in 2017 we have 54.99 (pure EVs) and about 160k hybrid. Thats 0.1 % EVs. Our gov pays you 4000 € bonus if you buy a EV, they still have budget for this campaign because of the low EV sales. Even the diesel-gate did not had a real effect, now everybody is buying gasoline cars.

VW announced the I.D. and a new e-up! But it is all only announcements, currently the cheapest car, the e-up! isn't even order-able. BMW announced the i2 (cheaper version of the i3) but it will take till 2021 to get one.

I hope you are right, but at least here it does not look like it.