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Teen Suicide Spiked After Debut Of Netflix's '13 Reasons Why,' Study Says

252 points| tosh | 6 years ago |npr.org

224 comments

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[+] sbilstein|6 years ago|reply
Just an anecdote but at the depths of a bout of depression I had several years ago I decided to watch “the bridge”, a documentary profiling people have committed suicide by jumping off the Golden Gate Bridge.

Suicidal ideation absolutely increased for me and I even drove up to a bridge in Spokane just to “think about it.” I thought about jumping for about 10 minutes before I got in my car, drove home, and set up some time to talk to a therapist. I absolutely can see how a movie can push someone over the edge. I was lucky to get home and see my roommate had invited a few friends over...took me out of my thoughts long enough to recognize just how close I had gotten.

[+] numbers|6 years ago|reply
wow, thank you for writing that. Must be hard to recall something so personal. I'm sorry to hear about you going through that in any way at all from the beginning. I hope you're doing better now.
[+] craze3|6 years ago|reply
That is great film but it had the opposite effect for me and everyone I talked to who watched it. They tell some pretty scary stories in it...
[+] gwbas1c|6 years ago|reply
Gosh, I found that movie so depressing I just had to turn it off. I very rarely stop watching a movie halfway through.
[+] berbec|6 years ago|reply
I'm very glad you got the help you needed. There are reasons to keep going!
[+] thatoneuser|6 years ago|reply
Glad you pulled yourself out friend. Thank you for the insight. I always hated when kids would say "kill yourself" or similar in high school for this very reason. Hope you're doing well.
[+] pillowkusis|6 years ago|reply
I'm pretty skeptical of this study.

The breakdowns by age and gender make me suspicious of p-hacking. It seems this journal does not require pre-registration of studies so it's hard to know if the study was pre-registered. It very likely was not.

Note that the only statistically significant finding was for boys, ages 10-17. No other category had a significant increase. That sounds like a negative result across most dimensions of analysis to me.

>There was a 28.9% increase in suicide among Americans ages 10-17

>The study found that boys were far more likely than girls to kill themselves after the show debuted. Suicide rates for females did increase, but it was not statistically significant

This is an enormous effect size. What exactly is the supposed method of action here? So only boys, who watch netflix, only ages 10-17, who decided to watch a show about a girl committing suicide (teen boys do not usually watch female-led dark serial dramas), account for the majority of the 30% increase in suicide across their entire age group?

>The spokesperson noted that the study conflicts with research published last week out of the University of Pennsylvania. That study found that young adults, ages 18-29, who watched the entire second season of the show "reported declines in suicide ideation

Now we have two seemingly "significant" studies with opposite conclusions. It beggars belief (if either of them are even representative of a real life causative factor at all).

Girls, older teens, and adults are completely immune from this effect. What possible method of action would affect such a specific demographic so disproportionately, with absolutely no spillover to any other demographic? How can it be that teenage girls, who watch more dramas and presumably empathize with a female lead more, show absolutely no effect? Or could it be that the researchers had an expected result, broke down the data until they found a dimension that had a large enough increase by chance, and submitted it to a journal full of peer reviewers who would find the result plausible and prestigious to their field?

[+] learc83|6 years ago|reply
>How can it be that teenage girls, who watch more dramas and presumably empathize with a female lead more, show absolutely no effect?

In general women are more likely to attempt suicide, but men are much more likely to succeed because of the methods they tend to choose. The data for attempted suicides is much less granular and reliable than the data for successful suicides.

[+] adjkant|6 years ago|reply
I don't see how an age group of 10-17 which is at a much more formative time in their lives with some not having fully developed brains points to p-hacking. Gender difference is interesting but doesn't mean p-hacking because the reasoning for it is non-obvious.

It's also possible that the 10-17 audience of 13 Reasons Why was significantly more male, but Netflix does not release that data. But there are plenty of plausible reasons for the gender divide.

> Now we have two seemingly "significant" studies with opposite conclusions

But not conflicting results. There's nothing that says one age group, with vastly more life experience, would be affected less or even differently than another with significantly less life experience.

> Or could it be that the researchers had an expected result, broke down the data until they found a dimension that had a large enough increase by chance, and submitted it to a journal full of peer reviewers who would find the result plausible and prestigious to their field?

A result in either direction would have been interesting for the field, so I don't think this is the motivation. The positive does get a bit more media attention, but I think this view is overly skeptical.

[+] crazygringo|6 years ago|reply
The paper's own discussion section explicitly acknowledges potential weaknesses:

This study has several important limitations. First, the quasi-experimental design of our study limits our ability to draw any causal conclusions between the release of 13 Reasons Why and increased suicide rates in young people in the U.S. Nevertheless, the time series and forecasting approaches employed in this study allow us to make credible inferences about this association. The initial increase in youth suicide rates in the month immediately following the series release is concordant with a prior report showing a spike in Internet searches about suicide in the month following release,46 and a small single-hospital study showing an increase in suicide attempt admissions after the series’ premiere. Second, we were unable to assess whether the observed increase in youth suicide rates was attributable to the portrayal of suicide in the series, a lack of adherence to media guidelines (e.g., failure to provide national suicide prevention resources until later months), or other factors. The observation that the series was first released on March 31, 2017 and suicide rates increased that month also raises questions about effects of pre-release media promotion of the series premiere. Third, we did not examine the impact of 13 Reasons Why on specific methods of suicide (e.g., suicide by cutting) due to small cell sizes, which would result in unstable estimates. Fourth, there may have been other events or unmeasured factors that occurred during the study period that might be associated with increased suicide rates. Fifth, our study may have lacked sufficient statistical power to detect a significant association in 10- to 17-year-old girls. Finally, as with most studies looking at possible contagion, we have little understanding of “dose” or context, including who specifically watched the series, when they watched, whether they binge-watched, if it was further discussed in peer-groups, how secondary discussions may have influenced vulnerable individuals, and whether the subsequent focus on suicide prevention may have actually mitigated some of the pronounced contagion effects.

[+] DanBC|6 years ago|reply
Young women are the group that has lowest risk for death by suicide, although much higher risk for self harm.

Young people in general have lower risk of death by suicide, and any increase in this age group is worrying.

These are mostly preventable deaths. The reward - a not very good tv show - doesn't in my mind justify the risk - more young people dying preventable deaths.

[+] leephillips|6 years ago|reply
Thank you for taking the time to write this comment; it's a good example of the kind of critical thinking that everyone should apply to research reports.
[+] saas_sam|6 years ago|reply
Great observations. At first glance I'd wonder if Fortnite wasn't the true culprit here. (Not really but you get what I mean.) Very shady study.
[+] hajile|6 years ago|reply
I think these issues are grossly overstated.

Let's look at the statistics (the newest from the US government are 2017). Around 79% of suicides are men. That edges up to around 82% in the 14-25 age group and down to 75% in the 10-14 age group (though the rate there is much lower).

Suicide is the second biggest cause of death in the 15-24 age group. Furthermore, there is a youth suicide epidemic with the rate for the 15-24 age group going from 9.7 in 2007 up to 14.46 in 2017 (per 100K with most of that jump occurring in just the last 4 years). That's an almost 50% increase over the past decade generally speaking. Between 2016 and 2017 there's an abrupt jump of 1.3 per 100K.

Most interesting to the study in question is the 10-14 age group. despite rises in other rates, their rate is basically unchanged until the year that show was released. At that point, we see a doubling of the suicide rate (from 0.73 to 1.34) for the 10-14 age from 2016 to 2017. That is definitely statistically significant.

Suicide Contagion is a rather well-known effect. Furthermore, it is known that adolescents and young adults are particularly susceptible to this effect.

Season 1 and 2 are very different (also reflected in their critic ratings). The first season has been out much longer than the second, so statistics there are probably more accurate. It may also be true that those who dealt with the first season and moved on to the second were less at risk to begin with. In addition, the show is about a bunch of high-school kids, so I'd guess they would find it more attractive than most dramas while lots of older people would find it less appealing.

TL;DR: Males are generally the ones committing suicide. The show targets the age groups in question. Those age groups saw a big jump in suicide rates the year the show came out (including a group that had previously been all but unaffected by other changes). This all seems inline with the study in question.

https://afsp.org/about-suicide/suicide-statistics/

https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide.shtml#par...

https://www.hhs.gov/answers/mental-health-and-substance-abus...

[+] hodder|6 years ago|reply
While the Werther-effect[1][2] appears to be fairly well documented, it is very hard to point to causation in statistics like these.

However, in spite of the questionable stats, many media outlets such as the CBC err on the conservative side and have adopted practices to avoid detailed reporting on suicides to prevent the Werther effect.[3]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copycat_suicide

[2] https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/psychological-medici...

[3] http://www.cbc.radio-canada.ca/en/reporting-to-canadians/act...

[+] DanBC|6 years ago|reply
The werther effect is robust when talking about news reporting, and we see it supported by a wide range of research in that context.

Here's one nice example: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19573483

--begin quote--

OBJECTIVE: Evidence suggests that there is an increase in the suicide rate following incidents of celebrity suicide in different countries, but there are no data on the overall suicide risk across countries. The duration of increased suicide rates is usually assumed to be on a monthly basis, but the weekly increase remains uncertain. This study aims at estimating the risk for suicide after the suicide deaths of entertainment celebrities in Asia during the first 4 weeks after the celebrity suicides and on a weekly basis.

METHOD: An ecological, retrospective time-series analysis and a meta-analysis of the suicide deaths in 3 Asian regions: Hong Kong (from 2001 to 2003), Taiwan, and South Korea (both from 2003 to 2005).

RESULTS: The combined risks for suicide were found to be 1.43 (95% CI = 1.23 to 1.66), 1.29 (95% CI = 1.12 to 1.50), and 1.25 (95% CI = 1.08 to 1.45) in the first, second, and third week, respectively, after suicides of entertainment celebrities, while adjusting for secular trends, seasonality, economic situation, and temporal autocorrelation. The same-gender and same-method specific increases suggest that as people identify more with the celebrity, their risk for suicide rises. A medium-term rise in suicides up to 24 weeks after the incidents of celebrity suicide is also evident.

CONCLUSION: This study is the first to estimate risk for suicides following celebrity suicides across 3 Asian regions. The results provide important information for public health policy makers in assessing the elevated risk associated with excessive media coverage of celebrity suicide and developing timely evidence-based interventions.

[+] morley|6 years ago|reply
I wonder if the Werther effect also applies to murder-suicides and spree killings. (My non-scientific intuition is that those behaviors are in the same direction.)

Personally I think the world would be better off if the media stopped reporting on spree killings, but I think any application of that policy would meet public backlash under the guise of "the public has a right to know."

[+] vivekd|6 years ago|reply
yeah my first thought is: Is the work of art causing people to commit suicide or are people who are already suicidal drawn to art about suicide and prone to romanticizing and copying the art
[+] anthony_romeo|6 years ago|reply
[Without writing on the ethical issues of producing such a show or the validity of the studies]

The Netflix spokesperson's response is utter nonsense:

"The spokesperson noted that the study conflicts with research published last week out of the University of Pennsylvania. That study found that young adults, ages 18-29, who watched the entire second season of the show 'reported declines in suicide ideation and self-harm relative to those who did not watch the show at all.'"

There isn't any conflict at all. The original study being discussed is data on the release of Season 1. Data on the effect of Season 2 is irrelevant (not to mention the article's note that the second study is still problematic regarding those who did not watch the entire season).

[+] awakeasleep|6 years ago|reply
Ghastly thought: If the show didn't increase suicidal ideation in healthy individuals, but did make those with existing suicidal thoughts more likely to kill themselves, an observer would see a decrease in reported suicidal thought among the remaining viewers.
[+] JohnJamesRambo|6 years ago|reply
If you kill yourself you can't watch Season 2. It's really idiotic for Netflix to even try to trot that out as an excuse.
[+] in_cahoots|6 years ago|reply
They also study two different age ranges. The increase in suicides was among youth ages 10-17, while the 18-34 group saw no change. This seems especially disingenuous to me.
[+] balabaster|6 years ago|reply
I watched this show after I listened to all the hype about this and while the study seems like it may be credible, I don't really get it.

They spent the entire first season delving into the mindset of a girl who had committed suicide and everything that led to her making that decision. From bitchy and macho high school popularity, to bullying to rape and then the trivialization of her experience leading up to that decision. It was a show about all of life's very real events that contribute to the thought processes that go on inside the head of someone in this state. I understand the repercussions it may have caused a spike in teen suicide and while I hate to minimize that, it served a far greater purpose which was helping everyone that doesn't suffer from suicidal thoughts understand just what someone with depression battles silently every day.

As someone who does battle depression every day, I can assure you, this topic needs to be brought to the forefront of people's understanding. It's still a common mentality that depression isn't a thing, that it's just people whining about not being able to deal with life. People need to know how to read the signs that are routinely missed, misunderstood, trivialized and invalidated in the most mentally devastating manner that lead to suicidal thoughts.

I'm sad that there seemed to be a teen suicide spike, I'm sad that people chose to look at this show as an ideation of teen suicide, but it was a very real treatise on what it is to go through depression and suicidal thoughts and it's a topic that needs to be discussed openly instead of being swept under the carpet and ignored, belittled and stigmatized.

I applaud the show for the ground they broke. It needed to be.

[+] adelie|6 years ago|reply
most of the criticism i've heard about 13 reasons why is less that it portrays a 'taboo subject,' but rather that it does so in a way that glamorizes suicide.

from some perspectives, hannah got everything she wanted by killing herself. she got attention to her case and revenge on the people who mistreated her - and the show portrays that she wouldn't be able to achieve that if she hadn't committed suicide.

not everyone sees the series that way, of course. but for a certain subset of people - often young people who are bullied and neglected, who feel victimized by the world but helpless about it - it's very easy to interpret the series into 'suicide is how i win.'

[+] rhcom2|6 years ago|reply
The things you're discussing are very important and certainly one of the reasons The Bell Jar first hit me like a ton of bricks when I was young but this show's problem is it frames suicide as a way to 'get back at' the people who hurt you. It's a harmful revenge fantasy.

Ijeoma Oluo explains this better than I ever could: https://medium.com/the-establishment/13-reasons-scared-the-s...

[+] DanBC|6 years ago|reply
> It was a show about all of life's very real events that contribute to the thought processes that go on inside the head of someone in this state.

But no, it's fiction. It's not real, and it's not based on reality. We don't get any actual insight into what goes on in the head of of young person who is suicidal or who dies by suicide. We get what some author and show-runner think might be going on in that person's head.

[+] judge2020|6 years ago|reply
As humans, we are really good at clinging onto things that support what we want to believe and forgetting about the things that oppose our beliefs. You see this today: if someone you know does something bad, you are very likely to say "that's just one thing, overall they're a good person". It's the same with religion and politics, you have to have a very open mind to accept new information that may change your beliefs, often it's easier to just let the information slip in one ear and out the other and continue with your daily life.

Someone already thinking about suicide or depression might watch the show (first season, maybe the second as well) and see that suicide is a viable option, and the potential benefits you get for executing it (leaving your mark on the world, leaving behind your story, etc).

Someone depressed, but -not- thinking about self-harm will see how accurate it is and will be able to identify with it, as with you and a few friends I know that have watched it. I had no idea these friends I've had for years were depressed until they watched the show, so it did bring positive change to their lives.

[+] throwaway55554|6 years ago|reply
I watched the show and I didn't get it. I mean, she wasn't around to see the effects, so what was the point? I mean, she did all this for revenge. But she's gone, so ... ?

Not trying to be insensitive, I just plain don't understand why she thought suicide was the solution for her problems.

[+] rahuldottech|6 years ago|reply
> many are strongly opposed to the confusing messages in the show (justice in life is not possible, but kill yourself and you might just get revenge). Many experts insist that the show glamorizes suicide and may even set off or increase suicidal ideation in vulnerable teens. From [0], April 2017

[0]: https://www.weareteachers.com/problem-with-13-reasons-why/

[+] berbec|6 years ago|reply
For those having trouble, remember there are reasons to keep going. You can reach the National Suicide Prevention Hotline 24/7/365 at:

1-800-273-8255

[+] mieseratte|6 years ago|reply
Strange question, but what does the hotline actually do? Supposing you call them with serious suicidal ideation, do they dispatch police? Direct you to a shrink? Just talk?
[+] qwsxyh|6 years ago|reply
Suicide hotlines are nearly completely useless to most people. I don't know why people still constantly share them.
[+] dcole2929|6 years ago|reply
The producers, directors, and show runners for this were pure garbage people. They consulted with psychologist before the shows release and were advised about specific things they should not show or do and they ignored them all. Chief among the advice given was that they not explicitly show the suicide. This show is like a wet dream for anyone with suicidal ideation. The main character kills herself and gets to leave behind videos for all the people who were mean to her and they all feel bad regret their actions. It was insane to believe that an incredibly popular show romanticizing suicide wouldn't lead to a spike in teen suicides.
[+] ocdtrekkie|6 years ago|reply
I recall family members being concerned about this. And based on my rudimentary understanding of the plot, I'm not really surprised.

This stands under my general concern that tech companies are neither cognizant of nor culpable for the impact they have on society.

[+] camelNotation|6 years ago|reply
Suicide is a perfect example of an anti-social behavior that must be stigmatized because the stigma itself serves as a major barrier to its proliferation. Removing the stigma might make it easier on survivors and family, but it will actually increase the suicide rate by legitimizing suicide as an option for people that otherwise wouldn't do it. It's one of those situations where life must be accepted as something of a living hell and we can't make it better anytime soon.
[+] DanBC|6 years ago|reply
When we interview people who attempted suicide but somehow survived (they would have died if they hadn't got timely medical attention) we see shame is a common emotion.

These people know that ending their life is wrong, and this knowledge combined with their desire to end their life makes them feel worse, and it prevents them seeking help, and it makes it more likely that they will die.

[+] sad-throwaway|6 years ago|reply
Why should suicide be seen as anti-social? You are trying to force those who just want their unbearable pain to be over to continue to live. I never understood it being seen as selfish for a similar reason. I disagree stigma will reduce the suicide rate - when I do feel very suicidal, I can tell you I don't care what anyone thinks. Pretty much the only reason I am alive is I haven't figured out a way to actually end it that's somewhat guaranteed, painless, and irreversible - I know if I were to fail an attempt and end up in the hospital, people like you would force me to stay alive, weather it be throwing me in a padded white room or giving me drugs. Oh perhaps if I'm in enough physical pain, my pain will be legitimized and I'll be allowed euthanasia.

And yet, somehow I am the anti-social one.

[this is a throwaway account so that I can talk openly about being depressed and suicidal]

[+] SkyBelow|6 years ago|reply
But then you run afoul of those seeking to having euthanasia viewed as a right. And as for the distinction between the two topics, people will commonly give a distinction that seems reasonable at the 50K' view but which breaks down at the 500' view.
[+] Strilanc|6 years ago|reply
I can't access the study. How did they distinguish correlation with this event from the fifty billion other things that happened during March 2017? E.g. did they check if the people who committed suicide tended to have a netflix account with this show in their history? Is it really just the date that they're using to correlate?
[+] cletus|6 years ago|reply
This is a tough one. I watched the first season of this show last month and I'm still traumatized. Like not in a "Netflix is bad for producing this" but because it's utterly heartbreaking. If you're of sound mind, I'd encourage you to watch it.

What I find interesting about the show is how polarizing opinions are. I've seen some online comments about how this show is an unrealistic tale of miscommunication, which may well be the most reductive unempathetic thing I've ever read online.

If I had to hazard a guess I'd say that those who don't relate to the issues raised have never experienced this loss of social connection (as well as the far darker things that happen as a result in this show).

As for this increasing the likelihood of suicide for those vulnerable to such thoughts, it wouldn't surprise me if that's true. But does that mean it shouldn't be shown? That's a problematic precedent. We have alcoholics. We still sell alcohol. We have gambling addicts but we still have gambling. Which of these is OK and which isn't?

Perhaps we'd be better off if we tackled the issues that create a permissive culture for bullying and ostracism (eg "kids will be kids") that makes life hell for so many kids in the first place?

[+] diminoten|6 years ago|reply
> The spokesperson noted that the study conflicts with research published last week out of the University of Pennsylvania. That study found that young adults, ages 18-29, who watched the entire second season of the show "reported declines in suicide ideation and self-harm relative to those who did not watch the show at all."

Troubling that the spokesperson didn't realize the two studies are of different age groups -- the one with the rise being the one matching the age group of the teen in the show...

[+] intertextuality|6 years ago|reply
The show's premise is disgusting and unrealistic. It's complete garbage that netflix should pull, but won't, since so many people indulge in it.
[+] alexpotato|6 years ago|reply
Given that putting aspirin pills in blister packs vs bottles has a measurable impact on suicides [0], it does not surprise me at all that show about suicide would raise the rate amongst teens.

The bad takeway from this is that there are producers etc who will exploit this kind of thing.

The good takeway is that even small "nudges" in the right direction can accumulate and lead to larger changes.

I think of the latter everytime I'm faced with a large cultural or organizational change that seems daunting.

[0] https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/02/a-simple-wa...

[+] camjohnson26|6 years ago|reply
“In the month following the show's debut in March 2017, there was a 28.9% increase in suicide among Americans ages 10-17, said the study, published Monday in the Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. The number of suicides was greater than that seen in any single month over the five-year period researchers examined”

That seems damning.

[+] js2|6 years ago|reply
"Are you okay? Is something wrong? Can I help you? Those are the words I desperately wanted to hear right before I catapulted myself over the rail." — Kevin Hines, survived jumping from the GGB almost twenty years ago.

http://suicidetherippleeffect.com/

[+] dpflan|6 years ago|reply
Arm-Chair Social Science (NB): I think that binge-watchable media when binge-watched does affect the viewer, you become part of the cast of characters as a social group - or perhaps your mind thinks so. I think that then makes the viewer susceptible to ideas in the show, like drinking when watching Mad Men.
[+] turc1656|6 years ago|reply
I find this data peculiar. It's not like we see spikes of murders after horror movies get released or anything like that. All forms of violent crime have been on the decline for decades virtually without exception. And even shows that one might think "glorify crime" like Breaking Bad, Sons of Anarchy, The Sopranos, etc. don't elicit this kind of copycat activity.

I wonder what it is about suicidal content that affects people so uniquely.

[+] frosted-flakes|6 years ago|reply
There are probably always a significant number of people suffering with depression who are already close to committing suicide and it's easy to nudge them over the edge (unfortunate choice of words, but I can't think of another way to phrase it), and I don't think the same is true about people who plan on committing murder. There's usually a specific reason why people commit murder, whereas depression usually happens over time and can't be blamed on a single happening.