[mrtron]

Imagine you were able to find the magical instrument to bet on this event. Let's simplify and say its based on shorting both RMB:USD and these secondary foreign real estate markets. (the details don't really matter much for this argument)

I first heard this IDENTICAL storyline in 2002. This magical instrument has been shit over the last 20 years. RMB:USD is suspiciously flat by design. Real estate in Canada as mentioned has skyrocketed.

The long term bet you are proposing has failed 4 for 4. Your near term bet has failed 10+ out of 10+.

[ethbro]

Aren't all macroeconomic short plays, by design, about timing?

In other words, they all fail unless you can accurately predict when a drop will occur. Consequently you'd expect that even perfect short plays often fail.