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Facebook Research Warned of ‘Tipping Point’ Threat to Core App

195 points| otoburb | 6 years ago |theinformation.com | reply

168 comments

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[+] Zak|6 years ago|reply
I can say what has reduced my Facebook use, if anybody in a relevant position at the company is reading. It's the content Facebook shows me.

A decade or so ago, most of the content I saw on Facebook was original content from people I know. Most posts were either text written by someone I knew, or a photo taken by someone I knew. Perhaps not everybody shares this position, but what I most want from Facebook is to keep up with people I actually know. Here are the first 20 posts I see now:

7 shared images from strangers/pages. 1 screenshot from a TV show uploaded by a friend. 1 page updated its website. 1 shared video from strangers/pages. 2 "suggested" videos from a page. 1 photograph taken by a friend. 1 "memory" containing text written by the person who shared it. 3 links to a news story. 3 posts by a page.

That's 2/20 posts of original content from people I know. I've noticed that if I post original content, my friends are less likely to interact with it than a few years ago, probably because they, too are presented with such a huge amount of other content.

I know I can opt in to something like the old experience with the "friends feed" feature. Well, I can on the desktop site (if I bookmark it, click it each time, or use a browser extension); it appears to be missing from the mobile site and the Facebook Lite app. Anything I post is still disadvantaged though, because most people are using the default algorithmic feed.

On Instagram, every one of the first 20 posts I see is original content by a person or page I follow. 16 of those are individual people. I see shared third-party content on Instagram fairly rarely, probably because its UI doesn't encourage that.

What would get me to use Facebook more actively is a change to the algorithm that advantages original content over shared third-party content.

[+] deanclatworthy|6 years ago|reply
Enjoy insta while it lasts. They are having more and more sponsored posts creep into the feed. I don’t expect this trend to reverse. It’s how they make money.
[+] athenot|6 years ago|reply
This has been my experience as well.

Equally annoying are the notifications menu (the actual notifications, I disabled a long time ago). I've been relying on them since the feed is useless but now they too have become cluttered with things like "posts you may have missed".

I would love a platform that is just original content (text and original media), and where any links are just text WITHOUT previews. Kinda like how Twitter used to be… but they seem to be heading in the same direction as FB, just less aggressively.

[+] rconti|6 years ago|reply
I find that IG has at LEAST as many ads as FB. I use both regularly; I prefer Facebook because of the "community of friends and family" feel to it, but I'm sure I use it less than I used to. Part of the problem for me was engaging with groups more. They're easier to 'ignore' for a week and not feel like you missed anything, and if your feed is more and more group stuff it's easy to feel like you don't have 'time' for it, where the friends+family stuff beckons to me more.

Twitter is basically complete toxic trash and I don't touch it.

[+] Bayart|6 years ago|reply
I've had a similar experience. Back in the days I used to have interesting talks with a bunch of people from overlapping networks, and met a lot of friends that way. Nowadays I'm just spammed by all the rubbish posted by people I shallowly know while the people I want to keep in touch with are invisible. It's been years since I've actually met somebody interesting on FB. They're actively obfuscating valuable content for their users to force-feed them with content that's valuable to themselves.
[+] sucrose|6 years ago|reply
Exactly this -- it's gotten to the point for me that anytime I see a post that isn't original, I click the little drop-down arrow (in the upper right-hand corner of the post) and click 'Hide all Posts from [Spammer Name]'.

There's a few friends that I've considered un-following completely because of how many times I've had to do this on their posts. One of them is my brother-in-law -- I called him out on it the last time I saw him, he admitted it's gotten out of hand.

It's baffling how many dumb meme pages there are. But even more baffling, is how many people actually have the motivation to maintain those meme pages. The people that are willingly following them, well, I've lost hope for them.

[+] tfha|6 years ago|reply
I'm starting to struggle with this on Twitter. Got frustrated enough to uninstall it a few weeks ago, still haven't put it back (though I continue to be tempted).

So many promoted tweets and the uncanny feeling that my feed is being shaped in strange and unwanted ways.

The straw that broke the camel's back was the banner where twitter declared that it was doing more tracking and targeting so that I would be served better ads, both on AND off of twitter. "Great!", "Learn more" were the two buttons.

I want my mindshare and my thought direction to be in my own control. The feeds are stealing my self control over my own thoughts. I hate it.

[+] 8ytecoder|6 years ago|reply
This happened a while ago and while that was not the reason I quit Facebook it was the reason I hated visiting the site. I distinctly remember trying to raise this feedback. But at the same time I noticed two things - 1) I had more things to look at and there were fresh content every time I went back 2) People shared a lot more. An indication to me that they are spending more time on Facebook. I read it at the time as a lesson on how data backed decisions can be misleading. I’m sure the PMs at Facebook reading the data would have been elated by the increased engagement.
[+] furyofantares|6 years ago|reply
I actually browse Facebook just for the ads. I used to get awful ads on Facebook and then I noticed that my wife had all these fun or interesting ads. Lots of meme-sized content, not just funny stuff but fun baking or crafting videos 30 seconds long. They all said something like “suggested based on posts you’ve interacted with.”

So, I waited and waited and eventually Facebook showed me an interesting ad instead of the non-stop barrage of Blue Apron clones. I interacted with the ad and overnight Facebook ads transformed into a better Reddit.

[+] tbabb|6 years ago|reply
This resonates with me, but what caused me to definitively stop using the app was the spam notifications which literally cannot be turned off. That was the last straw of user-hostility that made the app too unpleasant to use. I switched off every last email notification in order to keep that stuff out of my email inbox (nothing less was sufficient to stop it), which made it very easy to permanently ignore the app.

I'm sure the spam notifications A/B tested well for engagement though, /eyeroll.

[+] dgjrhgi|6 years ago|reply
Concerns like these and others people have with FB are surely what repel people away. Although its also something that FB can't fix, even when they are ware of it, due to stakeholders/market that constantly want's a company to make more and more profit. Its the markets infatuations with growth that convert companies into evil, a sad truth for non-community owned companies.
[+] jbob2000|6 years ago|reply
This is what people used to call "selling out". There's no money in original content between friends, facebook doesn't care that they no longer serve this need for you. Their new job is to show ads for fortune 500 companies so that the pension funds invested in the facebook stock can continue to make money.
[+] dwoot|6 years ago|reply
Another thing is Facebook provided options for selecting what to display -- just status, just photos, and something else before this was stripped away. I definitely used to use Facebook similarly to how I use Instagram today.

They could increase engagement if they simply put this back -- providing filters for original content versus external.

I, too, only want to see original content from people I actually care about. However, "care about" is very loose here, because for people with few connections, this probably doesn't matter much, but for users that have many connections and pages, etc, it makes sense to condense and perhaps rank content that a user likes from their connections higher.

Facebook is more of a visual Twitter for me -- people post articles and we have discussions as Twitter's format doesn't facilitate discussions nearly as well.

[+] alistairSH|6 years ago|reply
My FB top-20 (viewed via web page, not app, which I don't use) 6 friends photos, 4 ad, 3 friends post, 3 marketplace listing, 3 memory (from friend’s feed), and 1 “Stories” widget???

<50% is new content from friends. 20% is ads. And 15% is marketplace (groups I can hide, I think). The value proposition isn't all that great.

There are two things keeping me on FB's main app - 1 - parents and other older relatives/friends - 2 - a small number of friends use it for event planning/invites.

Instagram is 100% friends posts (again, webpage, not app). When viewed through the app, Instagram is about 25% ads, with 2 "stories" widgets, and the rest is new content. Slightly better content/noise ratio, but the web page is better.

[+] alkonaut|6 years ago|reply
Exactly this. The only explanation must be that Fb isn’t economically viable with more than a tiny fraction of original content (our friends showing cat pics to us doesn’t make money) but at the same time it isn’t a good product without a much higher, fraction of original content. And if that’s the case then Facebook will implode. My guess is they can’t watch their other apps cannibalize the blue app, so mergers will take place.
[+] dinofacedude|6 years ago|reply
That is exactly what made me leave FB in the first place. 90 percent of it was the sheer amount of videos and articles posted over content friends shared. If I wanted news I would have come to Ycombinator or Reddit. I miss seeing what my old friends are up to, but I wouldn't have seen their updates anyway
[+] NicoJuicy|6 years ago|reply
I want them to give less ads to people who don't click on them.

It won't effect their statistics and a larger group get's ( perhaps) a little bit less demotivated to go on Facebook.

The people that click on all says ads, nothing changes.

[+] salsadip|6 years ago|reply
I am happy that we have Snapchat and iMessage as competitors to the Facebook Apps. I very much dislike their business practices of sucking up all the data they can get their hands on e.g. during the acquisition of WhatsApp where they had to promise to European [1] regulators to not combine the user data with facebook‘s and then did it anyway.

Also sad that they were so successful in copying Snapchat’s story feature - it made Snapchat so unique. Now nobody is using Snapchat for it anymore and everybody is on IG instead.

All in all I know many people who really dislike FB and would leave it if they could, but the network effect keeps everybody locked in to WhatsApp at least in Europe/Germany.

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/7/18215143/facebook-whatsapp...

[+] 0xfaded|6 years ago|reply
The reliance on facebook where I live now in Denmark is disgusting. I lived in SV for 4 years, and basically any information of importance reached me by word-of-mouth or mailing list. Craigslist is also used and awesome.

Worst is that information meant for public dissemination, like training times or open event details, are now de facto private and require login. I've gone from logging in once every 3 months to once a week. AND messenger on mobile requires mbasic.facebook.com. /rant

[+] nolok|6 years ago|reply
> Also sad that they were so successful in copying Snapchat’s story feature - it made Snapchat so unique. Now nobody is using Snapchat for it anymore and everybody is on IG instead.

I don't see what's sad about that, if the only thing that made SC unique is a feature that was so easily copied into EVERY FB app (messenger, instagram, even FB itself) then SC was anything but unique.

Ultimately execution is what matters, and snapchat had a terrible app (at least on android) forever.

[+] rubber_duck|6 years ago|reply
Also Telegram (unless I missed the type of apps you're comparing ? I really only use messaging aspect of all of these)
[+] gwm83|6 years ago|reply
I don't think I've ever used an app that was less intuitive and less user friendly than snap. That's probably why.
[+] nexuist|6 years ago|reply
Snapchat is not any better. Given their financials I am sure they are selling my data to anyone who is willing to pay for it.
[+] nolok|6 years ago|reply
While I have a facebook account I'm not a big user, it's mostly for a few contacts that are only on messenger. I don't look at my "stream" a lot, and when I do it's mostly useless content like meme, self-centered post and whatnot that I personnaly have zero interest in, with maybe 1% of actually interesting thing in between like birth annoncement from acquaintances etc ...

I don't plan to delete my account because I want to keep the ability to be in touch with those few friends, and I haven't reached the point where I want to delete the messenger app, but the main FB/messenger duo just doesn't fill any major need for me.

But two things that struck me recently:

1. When opening my stream just to gloss over, there is A TON of ads. Like, the first 4/5 posts are real, then it's one post one ad one post one ad. And the targeting is abysmal. The only ones that are kind of on target are the amazon retargeting, except in typical amazon retargeting fashion it advertises to me stuff that I have already bought (on amazon no less). At least google has the decency to show me stuff I may be interested in, if vaguely.

2. I'm not sure when this was added to android, or if this is a specific samsung thing, but I had a weird warning that I had never seen before: my phone warned me that messenger, while not being open, was trying to access the "microphone" permission. Kudos to android for blocking it and warning me, so I could disable that permission for good. I can't think of a single reason for that app to do it that isn't super evil.

I'm also 99,9% certain it's not even legal where I live (France), I can't record my customers without asking or warning them on each instance of a conversation and with a clear non hidden message, so I doubt they can do that no matter what's in their TOS.

[+] quelltext|6 years ago|reply
The microphone permission is used for you to be able to record a voice message to send to someone.

I don't know why it would suddenly ask but I have pressed that voice message / microphone button by accident in the past. Or maybe it's just something the app requests globally on newer versions.

[+] calaphos|6 years ago|reply
I 've heard thag Facebook uses microphones in smartpones to correlate users with TV or billboard ads. They use ultra or infrasound to broadcast information to nearby phone microphones so Facebook (or others) now that you watched the add
[+] paulie_a|6 years ago|reply
The targeting of ads on Facebook is complete garbage. But it seems to have improved in the sheer quantity. It wasn't even one to one, more so two ads for one bit of content from friends I actually was interesting.

My usage went way down from hours a week to maybe ten minutes. I don't know how the the algorithms work but I just started hitting the report button on ever single ad. There are still some of those insidious ads that pretend to be legitimate posts but my usage is up. I actually get to see interesting content from friends and family.

[+] rconti|6 years ago|reply
I think the focus on Stories is a huge mistake. Disclaimer: I'm too old to "get it". I've only used stories a few times, they feel like a huge time sink vs a normal FB/IG post, and that investment seems less worthwhile for something that doesn't stick around like a vacation photo album that I or someone else might refer back to later. I've only used stories when (say) traveling solo, and I want to post more mundane shit because I don't have a ton going on. Keeps folks at home more apprised of what I'm up to, but not the kind of content that's 'important/curated' enough to keep forever.

So on to why I think it's a mistake. Yes, both the core business and the stories rely on the network effects of social networks to gain/maintain popularity. But encouraging users to share ephemeral content makes the switching costs much lower. If some new "yourspace" competitor came along, I'd be hesitant to switch because I LIKE the library of content myself and my friends and family have built up over the years. If literally all that prevents me from switching is where my friends are, I can use both until everyone switches, and then just drop the one entirely.

Don't get me wrong, Facebook is still almost worthless to users without friends using it, but the switching costs are still higher when there's old content.

[+] alkonaut|6 years ago|reply
Ephemeral content means you must check all the time. If you are like me and you want to check your friends original content or some event calendar once every 48h or less, you are probably not in the user group they see as “profitable”
[+] burlesona|6 years ago|reply
This is why, as Ben Thompson points out in his Stratechery emails, we should focus more of our anti-trust efforts on blocking mega-acquisitions than on regulating the giants. If Facebook were currently competing with Instagram and WhatsApp, it would be in a lot more trouble.
[+] alkibiades|6 years ago|reply
just curious, this assumes that companies being in more trouble would be a good thing. why is that the case?
[+] koonsolo|6 years ago|reply
I was talking to my 15yo niece, and I already suspected that Facebook is losing young people. So I asked on which platforms she spends her time. "No Facebook, mainly WhatsApp groups, and also private Instagram".

Facebook is dead, long live Facebook.

I must say that their aquisition strategy is impressive.

[+] alkonaut|6 years ago|reply
Soon these youngsters realize they need an event planning/calendar thing for WhatsApp, or a “page” for their business. And Fb can add it. Next, their own kids will get devices, and they’ll be on platform X that their parents aren’t on. And Facebook will quickly buy it. Repeat.
[+] stingraycharles|6 years ago|reply
Isn’t it fairly well known at this point that FB isn’t used by young people?
[+] john_minsk|6 years ago|reply
Interesting to see that Facebook, being big tech+data driven company, needs a year to gather such statistics.

I would imagine it to be almost real time there...

[+] yomly|6 years ago|reply
There's probably a TONNE of cleaning/reconciling/deduping that needs to go on if they are trying to connect cross-platform users (like WhatsApp and Facebook) - especially over historical data. Sure, maybe going forward refreshing these reports might be quick but don't underestimate the inertia of having to go through that pain of integrating the data for the first time.

Any analysis worth its salt will also need to go through rounds of sense-checking + checks for statistical robustness: this all takes time

[+] jdofaz|6 years ago|reply
Facebook is kind of like my email Spam folder now. I check it once or twice a month to see if anything useful was caught there but I otherwise ignore it.

It took me way too long to notice, but facebook stopped being an enjoyable thing a long time ago.

[+] goldcd|6 years ago|reply
I miss why this considered bad news.

Facebook spent billions pickup up Whats-app and Instagram (and probably a fair chunk developing and maintaining messenger).

This wasn't solely to pick up untold millions of new users who'd never used "original blue facebook" - if it had been, you'd need a facebook account to use Whats-app. Point was to ensure you didn't stray from the blue-app, onto something Facebook didn't own/control.

In my humble view, the keeping of messenger and whats-app separate by Facebook is smart - as they have two offerings that appeal to different people (and to many people that happily use both).

You know from all the rumours of "ads on Whatsapp" that internally in facebook they're trying to work out how to leverage all our eyeballs on all those different apps - but the reason they haven't merged them all, is they've worked out they keep more people if they keep the apps separate.

To take my favourite anecdotal example, I used to use latitude on google maps to work out where my friends were (I'm in the pub, when are you turning up?). Then google killed that functionality to try to make us all move to google+.... We didn't, it died.

Now, if a few of us are trying to co-ordinate say a drink after work, we'll use whatsapp. Google lost that feature I use to Facebook.

[+] ian0|6 years ago|reply
I think FB caught onto this a long, long time ago. Back when they saw the adoption & activity rates of the then competing WA & Instagram. The only difference being at the time of this analysis FB owns most of the apps people are migrating to.

Its not that threatening - as they already proved they know how to counter through acquisition or competition and have a good track record of being able to monetise new properties.

[+] dontbenebby|6 years ago|reply
Is this really surprising?

The strength of a network is n^2:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe's_law

It makes sense that the more people leaving a network then the utility of said network will decline.

What seems odd is why they care if people move to Insta or WhatsApp, since FB owna both.

[+] notTyler|6 years ago|reply
I used to think they would follow the xanga / myspace train and be blown out of the water by something but that's not the case anymore. They have proven they can just buy any competitors or quickly copy their features, and "all my friends are on fb/insta/whatsapp" will keep the vast majority of the users entwined in one way or another. Regardless of usage metrics, if you only use their apps for social, that's a win in itself.
[+] OoOOo|6 years ago|reply
This should be at the very least a reminder to try and use wrappers and disable/uninstall as much as you can from your phone facebook.
[+] erikpukinskis|6 years ago|reply
I sometimes try to use the Facebook (“blue”) app to do messages and then I remember Facebook nerfed it’s own app so it can’t send messages and then I give up.
[+] aj7|6 years ago|reply
This is in progress. The most avid FB users are 55+, and FB is unknown 25-
[+] mic47|6 years ago|reply
Is it just me, or do "secret" have negative connotation? Because for me it does, and I am really sad from journalist when they use "secret" or "secretly" in headlines, when it just mean internal, or just not disclosed. What is interesting that the article does not contain word secret, and they always use the word internal.
[+] doyoulikeworms|6 years ago|reply
It's the headline, and "secret research" sounds sexier than "internal research," at least to me.
[+] ouid|6 years ago|reply
the content is the responsibility of the author, but the headline is the responsibility of the marketing department.
[+] untog|6 years ago|reply
Internal doesn't necessarily mean "not public" though. "Private" is perhaps a better term.