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Apple Reports Declining Profits and Slowing Growth Again

299 points| humantiy | 6 years ago |nytimes.com

503 comments

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[+] DLA|6 years ago|reply
NY Times made a mess of this story and slanted it toward their agendas. Horrible reporting.

Apple beat most estimates. Revenues grew. All time high revenue from services. Forward guidance was raised.

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/07/apple-reports-third-q...

[+] ajross|6 years ago|reply
That's a bit spun too, though. Revenue is up just .93%. Net income is down 12.7%. And they beat the estimates because the estimates were expecting bad news, as the overall trend has been stagnant for about two years.

Those just aren't good numbers for a company that, over the past decade, has been literally the most profitable in history. They aren't "bad" numbers, but for Apple they're sort of a disaster. The iPhone gravy train is running out of steam, basically.

[+] o10449366|6 years ago|reply
Their reporting on technology is often intentionally misleading and sensationalist, but it isn't surprising considering they directly compete with the likes of Facebook for attention and also rely on Google, Apple, and Twitter for visibility.

I stopped reading NYT after their obvious crusade on Facebook followed by their embarrassing "privacy" series. Most of these companies disgust me, but NYT's reporting almost made me feel a semblance of sympathy for them due to how ridiculous it was.

[+] tryptophan|6 years ago|reply
>slanted it toward their agendas.

They do this a lot. It is (rightfully) pointed out any time a right leaning website story is posted, with the whole "Note this is from X publication, and they are right leaning, so take that into consideration" comment. For some reason NYT seems immune to this criticism though.

[+] dawhizkid|6 years ago|reply
I'm an Apple shareholder...biggest concern with driving "services" is that the 30% commission on in-app purchases is borderline obscene and I don't think longterm sustainable e.g. if the tech regulation hammer is pointed at Apple, regulation around the App Store, including limits on Apple's commission, would make the most sense.
[+] bb123|6 years ago|reply
Does anyone know why the NYT has this agenda?
[+] noelsusman|6 years ago|reply
A company press release definitely has no agenda though.
[+] MaysonL|6 years ago|reply
And the stock increased over 4% in after-hours trading, as increases in non-iPhone hardware sales and services overcame the decrease in iPhone sales. Earnings per share slightly beat the consensus forecast.

An interesting quote from Cook in the press release: "The balance of calendar 2019 will be an exciting period, with major launches on all of our platforms, new services and several new products"

[+] capkutay|6 years ago|reply
AAPL is still undervalued compared to stocks like AMZN. Apple's P/E of 17 is amazing compared to Amazons 78. I'm not really sure why their stock isn't traded with the same enthusiasm that other tech companies see.
[+] rootusrootus|6 years ago|reply
Yet another lesson that stock pricing is about predicting the future, not reacting to quarterly reports.
[+] gonational|6 years ago|reply
If one of these major launches is a MacBook Pro with the same (or better) specs (esp video graphics) as their latest MacBook Pro, but without a TouchBar, they will get at least $2,500 from me.

If one of these major launches is an iPhone X-like phone with a thumbprint reader (home button or otherwise), they will get at least another $1,000 from me.

[+] matwood|6 years ago|reply
> And the stock increased over 4% in after-hours trading

Because the shift to services is exactly what everyone has been clamoring for. Looks like a pretty great quarter for Apple. I think it is the biggest June quarter revenue wise ever.

[+] SkyMarshal|6 years ago|reply
>The balance of calendar 2019 will be an exciting period, with major launches on all of our platforms, new services and several new products"

A nitpick, but I wish people in business would diversify their vocabulary and learn to use words other than "exciting" to describe everything. Calling something exciting does not make it so. Show why it's exciting, don't just claim that it is.

[+] jandrewrogers|6 years ago|reply
That iPhones were less than half their revenue, while still growing overall revenue, is a positive sign. Apple has done a good job of diversifying their revenue base over the last few years. It will be interesting to see how large wearables and services can become as revenue sources, I suspect they are still quite early in their growth.
[+] S_A_P|6 years ago|reply
I have thought long and hard about upgrading my iPhone 8 to one of the new X models, but I don't like the lack of a home button. I guess I am officially old now, but I dont want to look at my phone to unlock it. I like that I can reach in my pocket, and unlock it with my thumb as I retrieve it. It may be user error, but I see several co-workers have to really train the phone on their face to unlock with Face ID. That would drive me nuts. the swipe up gesture just seems annoying, and on my iPhone 8 is unreliable to bring up the control panel. they need to do what they did before and copy the other vendors that put the fingerprint reader on the back of the phone so that the nice bezel free design can be implemented.
[+] mythz|6 years ago|reply
I was an early adopter of iPhone X and the following year with XS Max, from my experience any unfamiliarity with FaceID is extremely short-lived, I wouldn't go back to a home button which feels archaic at this point and unnecessarily takes up valuable real-estate that should go towards a larger screen. The gestures also become fluid and second nature after a while.

Even the next Pixel4 is moving to using FaceID, going back to a home button or fingerprint scanner would be a step backwards.

[+] j2bax|6 years ago|reply
I was skeptical as well coming from my iPhone 6+ to the Xs... but it turns out that it just works and works fine. I wasn't missing my home button after about a day or two. Switching between iPad and iPhone is slightly awkward now, as I am sometimes waiting for my iPad to unlock on facial recognition and it never happens.
[+] btown|6 years ago|reply
FWIW I was similarly skeptical. As others have mentioned, swiping up becomes a very natural motion. And I have sweaty fingers that confounded the fingerprint reader, so Face ID was actually a huge improvement in recognition rates for me. Looking squarely at the phone becomes second nature (because what else are your neck and wrist muscles doing?), and the only times I need to type a passcode are when I need to unlock the phone while lying down.
[+] reaperducer|6 years ago|reply
I don't like the lack of a home button

I resisted the button-less form until my buttoned iPhone broke, and I got a hand-me-down X.

Now when I use my iPad, which has a button, there's a brief moment of indignation, "What!? I have to touch a button to unlock this thing!?" every time I use it. It's funny how quickly we get used to things.

That said, I wish the phone wouldn't unlock when I'm just looking at the screen sometimes.

[+] rconti|6 years ago|reply
I thought it was going to take me forever to get used to the swipe up action, but honestly, it took minutes.

I really like(d) the ability to unlock my phone as it laid flat on my desk using touchid, but my FaceID experience has been virtually flawless.

I really couldn't go back to the huge black bar across the bottom.

[+] filoleg|6 years ago|reply
While I cannot comment on the rest, Face ID has proven to work surprisingly well for me, beating even the wildest expectations.

The unlock time seems to be less than half a second, so as I look at the phone, it is already unlocked.

And the detection is really good too. After I shaved my long beard and went fully clean-faced, FaceID had zero issues unlocking the phone with zero hiccups for me.

[+] jakear|6 years ago|reply
I’m even older than you apparently, but I just don’t see the attraction of the bezel-less design. I like bezels, they:

- let me hold the phone without blocking the screen

- act as a buffer for cracks: a smaller crack in the corner (the most common kind in my experience) won’t affect your experience.

- mean I don’t have to deal with notches or curved displays

Privilege check: I have large hands, I can single-handedly operate my iPhone 8 Plus with little difficulty. I could see bezel-less allowing greater ease of use for people not like me. If that overcomes the points above... so be it. I’m keeping my 8 Plus for now though.

[+] la_barba|6 years ago|reply
Yeah, I think you are forced to re-train how you pickup and use the phone. An older non-smartphone could be easily picked up by grabbing the entire girth of the phone. With smartphones, people learned to pick it up using the side edges without triggering any touch interactions. Old-folks found this confusing as they constantly kept inadvertently dialing someone or launching random apps. At-least with the change from non-smartphones you got a bump in functionality, the face-id change seems to be entirely superficial to me. I'm still rocking my 6s, but will have to eventually upgrade when Apple slows down my phone with their updates. I held on to my 4s too till it became unbearably slow..

One feature I'd upgrade for is if Apple completely sealed off their phone and made it waterproof.

[+] saagarjha|6 years ago|reply
> I dont want to look at my phone to unlock it

You can turn this off in Settings.

[+] Areading314|6 years ago|reply
It's fine. At least on the new Galaxy phones, the haptic feedback works almost like its a real button (and I'm assuming it's similar on the iphone).
[+] yepthatsreality|6 years ago|reply
I broke my home button and lost touch ID. For a while until I could replace the home button, I used the software home button which floats on your screen. The actual home button for navigation isn't really needed and swipe gesture is a natural evolution of that. However I would prefer fingerprint to face biometrics is what I discovered during this physical home button-less period.
[+] samfisher83|6 years ago|reply
This is how it did compared to expectations

EPS: $2.18 vs. $2.10 estimated by Refinitiv consensus estimates.

Revenue: $53.8 billion vs. $53.39B estimated by Refinitiv consensus estimates.

Q4 Revenue guidance: $61 billion to $64 billion versus $60.98 billion estimate by Refinitiv consensus estimates.

iPhone revenue: $25.99 billion vs. $26.31 billion estimated by FactSet.

Services revenue: $11.46 billion vs. $11.61 billion estimated by FactSet.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/30/apple-earnings-q3-2019.html

[+] terminalhealth|6 years ago|reply
These estimates are amazingly accurate or is my amazement inappropriate?
[+] sah2ed|6 years ago|reply
I’ve also wondered how these estimates are produced with fairly high accuracy. Would be interesting to read more on their methods.
[+] reilly3000|6 years ago|reply
I'm bullish on AAPL because of their planned services. Anything they roll out has a gigantic audience and will have immediate revenue impact. They have a tremendous bully-pulpit inside their users devices, incomparable email lists, and a habit of making TV commercials people like to watch. The fact that they are adding 4 lines of business (banking, ad-free gaming, news, and streaming) is going to sustain double-digit, high-margin growth for the foreseeable future.

If I had money play with I would buy after this earnings report dropped; but it looks like the stock price isn't getting beat up.

[+] ilikehurdles|6 years ago|reply
Apple beat out EPS and Revenue estimates and the stock is trading up in after-hours. This is a headline for the cap-wearing anti-Tech Company crowd, as has been typical of the New York Times over the last year or two.
[+] ceezuns|6 years ago|reply
I don't understand why these articles think that people will just keep buying, like in the past decade the lifespan of devices has become bigger and bigger. I'm typing this post on a 2013 Macbook and I'm sure a lot of other users are using older laptops than that, that run perfectly fine. Like does the media just expect people to be buying new stuff again and again?

I don't know if I'm just missing the point or something...

[+] augustk|6 years ago|reply
Sooner or later you will have to buy a new device due to planned obsolescence, i.e. when (security) updates are no longer released. But then you can of course install a free operating system instead.
[+] noitsnot|6 years ago|reply
2012 Macbook Pro here. Works like I just bought it. 5G is apparently the reason next year for your phone upgrade. I'm not sure how anyone will notice the difference, not to mention plans being throttled to death to begin with.
[+] triceratops|6 years ago|reply
Macs have always been durable. Nothing has changed in that regard. If anything they've become less repairable and user-upgradable, shortening replacement cycles.
[+] peaktechisnow|6 years ago|reply
Why would you link the NYTimes for a business article? They don't have a clue. These results are excellent (particularly wearables growth) and they guided Q3 revenues well ABOVE Sell side estimates. China decline rate improved dramatically to only -4% Y/Y.
[+] mffnbs|6 years ago|reply
I thought this headline sounded overly pessimistic when seeing it after actually reading the report...
[+] darkteflon|6 years ago|reply
“Is Apple still capable of innovation?” must be one of the most tedious and clapped out topics in all of tech. No one can even remotely agree on a definition of what constitutes “innovation” and yet people keep showing up to dash themselves against the rocks chasing their 5 minutes.

If you’re sitting at home playing armchair quarterback with this stuff, all I can say is I hope you’re not responsible for managing any actual money.

[+] skrowl|6 years ago|reply
iPhone sales continues to decline (down another 13% vs this quarter last year), but services are making up for it
[+] 40acres|6 years ago|reply
I believe that Apple’s next big thing will come in the form of AR consumer hardware and a detached Watch. Recent expansions of their chip design org and acquisition of Intel’s modem business reinforce my confidence in their execution, iPhones are still big business and services are rising. There is little reason to doubt that Apple has more than enough resources to take it through until the next breakthrough.
[+] paul7986|6 years ago|reply
2019 is another year I’m stuck with my iPhone 8 from 2017. I use to upgrade every year then some genius at Apple thought bigger phones are the only way to go from here on out. Maybe that person no longer works there?

Also Touch ID over Face ID or offer both or I’m not interested along with millions of others!

[+] nabla9|6 years ago|reply
At these valuations Apple makes sense only when seen as an alternative to other investments. S&P 500 as a whole has P/S ratio that indicates lower return of investment for the next decade. At least Apple will be able to make profits.
[+] klauslovgreen|6 years ago|reply
I think the trouble is that the devices are getting too good and there is really only incremental improvement every year so the upgrade cycle is getting longer.

I typically get the latest phone every year (but it starts to feel unnecessary) - iPad's and Mac's, however, last a lot longer (several years) for me these days.

I wonder where the real innovation is going to come from? AI, AR?

[+] uwuhn|6 years ago|reply
I would pay lots of money for an Apple Bluetooth Mechanical keyboard. Like $300+ easily if it's good.
[+] garysahota93|6 years ago|reply
Do you think they would ever monetize iMessage? Imagine making iMessage cross platform, but only available to paying iCloud Subscribers. So I could pay $10 / month for upgraded iCloud storage and get iMessage on my Android phone. I'd pay for that.
[+] novaRom|6 years ago|reply
I just visited a local shop where I tested different smartphones including iPhones. Lots of similarly looking models, most with Android. Most are below 300 Euro. An average buyer cannot probably see big difference between phones priced at 1000 and 200 Euro.
[+] hal-9-000|6 years ago|reply
Not related to article but.. I have a change request for HN, put some kind of marker next to links which require payment/signingIn/signingUp or whatever the fk stops you from consuming content right away.