[savagedata]

When Irma was making landfall two years ago, I did an animation demonstrating this for r/DataIsBeautiful. [1] The real hurricane path is in red with the forecast at each timestamp in black. If you look at the forecasts through time, you can see that they're frequently off by a distance the width of Florida.

(This final graphic is an amalgamation of all the useful comments I got on the original thread. It was a really cool experience getting so much feedback so fast, like a giant collaboration with all of Reddit. You can see the original not-so-beautiful here. [2])

[1] https://github.com/savagedata/hurricane-animation

[2] https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/6z0w20/tim...

[_ea1k]

It would be great if this also had the cone overlaid on top of it. It is often interesting to read the forecaster's notes along with each of these graphics, as it is fairly common for the "line" to basically just be an average of several models without much expectation for it to be accurate in itself.