[onetimeposter1]

2008 and the ensuing recession happened because of an actual event (Lehman) and a credit crisis. I'd say those are 1 in your model. We haven't had anything of that magnitude yet, so I disagree that in today's economy condition 1 is satisfied.

That said, panic is a real component of crises and Trump's ability to shift focus could actually be a real asset, though it will be many years before historians and economists recognize it.

[ta1234567890]

> 2008 and the ensuing recession happened because of an actual event (Lehman) and a credit crisis. I'd say those are 1 in your model.

Yes, and also 2. Without panick and a lot of intensive short selling, Lehman wouldn't have happened.

[Seanzie]

But consider Hyman Minsky’s theory that in capitalist economies stability engenders instability. It could be true, that good times plant the seeds of bad times, similar to the way that forests that go many years without fires, build up tinder.