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rjf72 | 6 years ago
To put it mathematically, if I said there was a 1 in a million chance of you losing a billion dollars sometime in your life, and you agreed with me, it'd certainly be logical, if you could, to provide insurance against that eventuality for $1. In fact it'd still be mathematically sound to spend $1000. But this is for an event that you are literally 99.9999% sure will not happen. I think the big difference is in seeing reality as a neverending stream of probabilities as opposed to seeing reality as a neverending stream of certainties. The probabilistic mindset can lead you to conclusions and decisions that look peculiar to a deterministic mindset. By contrast doomsday types are those who have a deterministic mindset and have decided that the world (as we know it) is going to end and thus make that a part of their persona and worldview. Granted, they could also be of a probabilistic mindset with a different weighting but, at least in my experience, that's not usually the case.
Gustomaximus|6 years ago
1) Acknowledging there is a chance of a significant event vs. I know what is coming.
2) It takes a minor part of your life vs. significant proportion/resource.
Personally I keep a couple months food stored. I dont keep freeze dried barrels of meals etc, just buy bulk on stuff we use that's 1) on special and 2) stores; like jars of pasta sauce, peanut butter, toothpaste etc so really it also saves money as a portion of my grocery is always half price rather than that weeks on special usage.
The way I look at it is pretty much every 2nd generation experiences a significant catastrophic at some time. If I can keep things covered for a couple months it covers most non-extreme scenarios, where as if the end of civilisation did come I figure there would be so many variables there not much you can really do unless you devote you life to this and sacrifice you lifestyle for a likely non-existent outcome.
Keeping some extra food/supplies is insurance of a kind. And surprised more people dont while so many have things like house content insurance.
For me I dont have content insurance on my house while most people do. Many people would think I'm strange for having a couple months food, but the way I look at it is, if all my house goods disappeared it would suck but I can sort it out fairly easily over 3-12 months. If something happened that broke supply lines, while significantly less likely than the house being being burgled/fire etc, the consequences are so much greater. I prefer to be covered for a much less likely event that would have significant impact on me, than a more likely (though still low) event that will have little impact on me in the over arching story of my life. PLus there something nice about the planning organising mental exercise of it
ahje|6 years ago
There's a long way to go from that to bunkering down in the wilderness and withdrawing from society.
undergrowth54|6 years ago
- Is there a form of insulin which can be shelf-stable for a year and isn't so expensive that throwing it out yearly is a hardship?
- Suppose someone has a chronic pain condition and after a year of debilitating pain, found a specific treatment regimen that works for them. Is it possible for them to stockpile drugs without being accused of drug-seeking-behaviour?
https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/09/16/against-against-pseudo...
FooHentai|6 years ago
Also, I think most people have that deterministic mindset, not just the doomsday folks. It's just they've come down on the other side of the fence. It's why you see so many folks making no preparations, even though they have received warnings from reputable sources.
PinkMilkshake|6 years ago
The New Zealand government sure does! https://getthru.govt.nz/ / https://getprepared.nz/
There are also sometimes ads on TV reminding people to keep an emergency kit.
FooHentai|6 years ago
Some councils supply discounted emergency water tanks for home install, too. Got one hooked up last Autumn, and a second in the garage waiting for better weather.
I do some work with MCDEM, the operator of getthru (and getready, and civil defence). Fascinating area - They cover the governance/policy aspects of emergency management but also some of the operational/practical execution of it (that which isn't devolved to regional civil defence or emergency sector e.g. FENZ).
greglindahl|6 years ago