Paper books are going the way of film - though it's about three or four years ahead of the curve that I predicted when I got my first Kindle.
People still use film to take pictures, and people will continue to buy paper books - but as the format improves, the resolution and page changing gets better, and the battery life increases, "Paper Books" will become more an more niche - I think people are going to be absolutely shocked how quickly tablets wipe out the paper textbook market.
I originally predicted (in 2007, when I got my first kindle - a laughable device compared to my K3 (or Ipad+Kindle, for that matter) - that eBooks would overtake Paper books as the most popular format in 2015 - eight years seemed like a reasonable time span based on previous transitions (Vinyl->CD, VHS->DVD). Then three years to pick up the late majority, and finally another three years to reduce paper books to a tiny niche - 2021 would have us all reading books on electrical devices. Given that 2012 looks like it will be the year eBooks become more popular (Give it a full two years after they become the most popular on Amazon), It looks like that prediction was off - pull everything in by about three years. 2018 - The year people will look at you funny if you are reading a paper book.
It's going to be interesting to see what happens to all of our libraries...
Wow, this is great news for my weekend startup, Booklends. I think that the 'try before you buy' model will work great for eBooks. So I'm creating a website http://www.booklends.com to let Kindle users borrow and lend books with other users.
Certain books (depending on if the publisher allows it) can be loaned from one user to another for up to 14 days. Booklends will let you keep track of all your books and let you make wishlists of books that you want to borrow from other people.
My site is coming together quickly, now I just have to get it finished and launched! :)
How big a portion of the total number of books sold world wide goes through Amazon?
That's an important number in this debate, you could easily interpret this as 'ebooks are now sold more frequently than paperbacks' but I'm not seeing bookstores going out of business in the towns that I visit so there must be more to it.
Another question that needs answering is how many of these ebooks would have been sold as paperbacks, and how many of them are really sold just on the merit of being available as an ebook.
Typically I'll read anything technical on a screen and 'books' in dead tree format, and I pass my copy on to someone else after I'm done with it. As long as ebooks do not allow me to do that given the price I'd much rather have a 'real' book than a stream of bits, it seems more value for money.
> That's an important number in this debate, you could easily interpret this as 'ebooks are now sold more frequently than paperbacks' but I'm not seeing bookstores going out of business in the towns that I visit so there must be more to it.
In the US, bookstores are going out of business at a rapid pace. Borders is nearly insolvent, Barnes & Noble is on a long slump (the only thing that may save them is eBooks). Independent bookstores have been declining for at least a decade if not two.
"As long as ebooks do not allow me to do that given the price I'd much rather have a 'real' book than a stream of bits, it seems more value for money."
Disclaimer: I got a kindle recently, so I haven't tried this yet, but..
Amazon says you can give a kindle ebook to anyone with an email address. Just create an email address for every book you buy, and you should be able to give/lend/sell it to anybody without limitation.
If somebody tries this let me know how it goes. I'm sure I will sometime in the next week or two. I just got my kindle, and I haven't wanted a book since Christmas.
Is it just me, or has this been an extremely swift market transition from physical towards digital? Even counting that it is only Amazon we're talking about?
The transition from film to digital cameras was very quick once it happened, but my feeling is that ebooks were adopted sooner after mass-market devices became available. Anyone got numbers?
Would be interesting to compare with Netflix's transition from DVD to streaming as well!
I've thought about this too. Amazon sold millions of Kindles this past holiday shopping season.. Why? I personally know 6 people who got Kindles or Nooks in the last month.
It would be interesting to know what contributed to their 'overnight' success. Perhaps there's something magic about the $139 price point, which I suspect is about what a serious reader might spend on paper books every year anyway (Nobody has better data on this than Amazon)..
Also there weren't really any other big ticket, must have items this holiday season - no game consoles launching.
Like I said, it would be really interesting to know why this transition happened so suddenly, and why now..
One thing that helps books transition is that people who actually _buy books_ are probably educated, wealthier, and technically savvy.
There are multiple people I know who I don't think have ever bought a book in their adult life. The fact that the market to entice is smaller, makes it an easier market to become bigger than.
Notice many aren't free if you live outside the US and a few other locations; you'll get charged the $2 "international whispernet delivery fee" or whatever they call it.
And even then, they might not even be available (like the one you referenced).
If you want classics, much better to just hit http://manybooks.net or the gutenberg project site and get them directly in kindle format through your desktop/laptop and copy them over USB.
Just to clarify for any others who misread the title, this is comparing paperbacks to Kindle edition, not all paper books. The numbers imply Kindle sales are about 85% of hardcovers and paperbacks combined.
Also, since Amazon sells 100% of the Kindle books its readers buy, but only some of the physical books its readers buy, I think this most interesting part of this release is what it says about how great a business move the Kindle was for Amazon. Every time a customer switches to the Kindle they instantly gain a lot of sales that used to happen at various physical bookstores. And that's before even considering that people who walk around with a bookstore 1 foot from them will buy more books, too.
Amazon.com is now selling more Kindle books than paperback books. Since the beginning of the year, for every 100 paperback books Amazon has sold, the Company has sold 115 Kindle books. Additionally, during this same time period the Company has sold three times as many Kindle books as hardcover books. This is across Amazon.com’s entire U.S. book business and includes sales of books where there is no Kindle edition. Free Kindle books are excluded and if included would make the numbers even higher.
I don't really see the death of print as something imminent, but the convenience of e-books might make them more preferable to a lot of people.
My actual question is if the decline in brick and mortar book shops will just fuel a print-on-demand industry instead?
Granted, the price for production and shipping can only be so low - MagCloud is completely non-viable for someone living in my part of Europe due to shipping rates.
There is a tactic that Amazon has been doing that frustrates me and might contribute to why kindle books are selling so well.
Search for a book, if there is a kindle edition, it will be the one that shows up on the search NOT the paperback. You have to navigate around just to get to the paperback.
It doesn't do that for me, but it's not that far off since the kindle version is the best selling version. They may also boost Kindle results if you have purchased a Kindle before (that would actually be pretty clever).
Hopefully the older publishers will change the way that they deal with digital books now that the medium is becoming (has become?) mainstream. I know many publishers will offer lump sums to authors to publish digitally, but wont give any royalties (despite the often equivalent pricing).
Wow. It seems like yesterday that eBooks were just becoming somewhat well known...thanks to Bezos and Jobs for nailing this major accomplishment in such a short amount of time!
[+] [-] ghshephard|15 years ago|reply
People still use film to take pictures, and people will continue to buy paper books - but as the format improves, the resolution and page changing gets better, and the battery life increases, "Paper Books" will become more an more niche - I think people are going to be absolutely shocked how quickly tablets wipe out the paper textbook market.
I originally predicted (in 2007, when I got my first kindle - a laughable device compared to my K3 (or Ipad+Kindle, for that matter) - that eBooks would overtake Paper books as the most popular format in 2015 - eight years seemed like a reasonable time span based on previous transitions (Vinyl->CD, VHS->DVD). Then three years to pick up the late majority, and finally another three years to reduce paper books to a tiny niche - 2021 would have us all reading books on electrical devices. Given that 2012 looks like it will be the year eBooks become more popular (Give it a full two years after they become the most popular on Amazon), It looks like that prediction was off - pull everything in by about three years. 2018 - The year people will look at you funny if you are reading a paper book.
It's going to be interesting to see what happens to all of our libraries...
[+] [-] Kaizyn|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bhousel|15 years ago|reply
Certain books (depending on if the publisher allows it) can be loaned from one user to another for up to 14 days. Booklends will let you keep track of all your books and let you make wishlists of books that you want to borrow from other people.
My site is coming together quickly, now I just have to get it finished and launched! :)
[+] [-] tghw|15 years ago|reply
Though I do like your name better.
[+] [-] jacquesm|15 years ago|reply
That's an important number in this debate, you could easily interpret this as 'ebooks are now sold more frequently than paperbacks' but I'm not seeing bookstores going out of business in the towns that I visit so there must be more to it.
Another question that needs answering is how many of these ebooks would have been sold as paperbacks, and how many of them are really sold just on the merit of being available as an ebook.
Typically I'll read anything technical on a screen and 'books' in dead tree format, and I pass my copy on to someone else after I'm done with it. As long as ebooks do not allow me to do that given the price I'd much rather have a 'real' book than a stream of bits, it seems more value for money.
[+] [-] jonknee|15 years ago|reply
In the US, bookstores are going out of business at a rapid pace. Borders is nearly insolvent, Barnes & Noble is on a long slump (the only thing that may save them is eBooks). Independent bookstores have been declining for at least a decade if not two.
[+] [-] akkartik|15 years ago|reply
Disclaimer: I got a kindle recently, so I haven't tried this yet, but..
Amazon says you can give a kindle ebook to anyone with an email address. Just create an email address for every book you buy, and you should be able to give/lend/sell it to anybody without limitation.
If somebody tries this let me know how it goes. I'm sure I will sometime in the next week or two. I just got my kindle, and I haven't wanted a book since Christmas.
[+] [-] martinkallstrom|15 years ago|reply
The transition from film to digital cameras was very quick once it happened, but my feeling is that ebooks were adopted sooner after mass-market devices became available. Anyone got numbers?
Would be interesting to compare with Netflix's transition from DVD to streaming as well!
[+] [-] bhousel|15 years ago|reply
It would be interesting to know what contributed to their 'overnight' success. Perhaps there's something magic about the $139 price point, which I suspect is about what a serious reader might spend on paper books every year anyway (Nobody has better data on this than Amazon)..
Also there weren't really any other big ticket, must have items this holiday season - no game consoles launching.
Like I said, it would be really interesting to know why this transition happened so suddenly, and why now..
[+] [-] kenjackson|15 years ago|reply
There are multiple people I know who I don't think have ever bought a book in their adult life. The fact that the market to entice is smaller, makes it an easier market to become bigger than.
[+] [-] dantheman|15 years ago|reply
For instance: Robinson Crusoe http://www.amazon.com/Life-Adventures-Robinson-Crusoe-ebook/...
[+] [-] tjr|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tomasr|15 years ago|reply
And even then, they might not even be available (like the one you referenced).
If you want classics, much better to just hit http://manybooks.net or the gutenberg project site and get them directly in kindle format through your desktop/laptop and copy them over USB.
[+] [-] asr|15 years ago|reply
Also, since Amazon sells 100% of the Kindle books its readers buy, but only some of the physical books its readers buy, I think this most interesting part of this release is what it says about how great a business move the Kindle was for Amazon. Every time a customer switches to the Kindle they instantly gain a lot of sales that used to happen at various physical bookstores. And that's before even considering that people who walk around with a bookstore 1 foot from them will buy more books, too.
[+] [-] jeremydavid|15 years ago|reply
Amazon.com is now selling more Kindle books than paperback books. Since the beginning of the year, for every 100 paperback books Amazon has sold, the Company has sold 115 Kindle books. Additionally, during this same time period the Company has sold three times as many Kindle books as hardcover books. This is across Amazon.com’s entire U.S. book business and includes sales of books where there is no Kindle edition. Free Kindle books are excluded and if included would make the numbers even higher.
[+] [-] kmfrk|15 years ago|reply
My actual question is if the decline in brick and mortar book shops will just fuel a print-on-demand industry instead?
Granted, the price for production and shipping can only be so low - MagCloud is completely non-viable for someone living in my part of Europe due to shipping rates.
[+] [-] radioactive21|15 years ago|reply
Search for a book, if there is a kindle edition, it will be the one that shows up on the search NOT the paperback. You have to navigate around just to get to the paperback.
[+] [-] jonknee|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jjcm|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ericmsimons|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jrockway|15 years ago|reply