[pitchups]

Prediction:'Bus ticket collecting' will enter our lexicon as a new way to describe obsessive pursuits with little or no perceived impact - or at least it would appear to have no foreseeable impact or future to you at that point in time. The opposite of what you should be doing with your life if you want to make a difference. As in : "Although I enjoyed my new research area, at times I wondered if I was merely bus ticket collecting.."

The paradox though is that you cannot know in advance if you are merely bus ticket collecting or pursuing something that will have a real impact. Just like Darwin had no way of knowing if his excessive obsession with natural history would go on to change the world, and lead to the theory of evolution. In the essay, pg does give heuristics on how to figure out the difference - but the greater the potential for impact the less likely it is that you will be able to tell the difference. In other words, the most transformative discoveries will likely seem most like bus ticket collecting and a wase of time, at least initially.