[fat-chunk]

I really do hope I am wrong about this one, but unless a very strong wave of international regulation on the big tech companies comes in, particularly with regards to the gathering, storage and processing of personal data, then I see us entering a gruelling cold war over the next decade, the main players being largely the same (US vs Russia & China, with the EU and the larger middle eastern powers as secondary actors).

Reasons for this prediction: - The likes of Trump, Putin, the brexit campaign have all benefitted from the normalisation of outrageous headlines and extreme/divisive views shared at mass scale and speed thanks to the ease of viral spreading of low quality media with ulterior motives. - The hyperlocal targetting of individuals using their personal data has only exacerbated and optimised this phenomenon. - Because of this it is easier for these divisive and populist politicians who run on policies of rash short term decisions to come into power, which will in turn lead to worse international relations. - (more speculative argument) The algorithms which power social media and consumer advertising using personal data will placate the middle classes, feeding them what they think they want to see and consume and keeping them distant from the world's reality (e.g. what is already happening in China, Singapore) meaning populists can maintain control by getting votes/support from the more desperate people with their more extreme policies.

Unfortunately, I do not see the necessary regulation coming in soon, as the major players would never want to break up their tech giants out of fear of giving up ground to rival tech giants (e.g. amazon vs ali baba). On top of that, these governments have no incentive to mitigate the gathering of personal data by companies as they will want access to it as well for political reasons (domestic as well as international mass surveillance provides a big strategic advantage in the context of this cyber cold war).

There are many other reasons why I think these problems are being exacerbated but I have tried to summarise what I think are (and will continue to be) the main ones.