[franch]

Also, physics-based models (Numerical weather predictions NWP) assimilate much more data than just the last few radars scan. The assimilation phase takes a couple of hours, but when the physics kicks in, the NWP models win hands down.

[labster]

I've been out of the field for about a decade now. So how often are they running data assimilation into models now? It was basically just 0Z and 12Z back then, because it's computationally intensive. (And of course, you only have radiosondes every 12 hours, and satellites only get you so far.) As are model runs.

Like, of course NWP models win. It's not just the physics, it's all of the other assimilated obs that are advecting over your area of interest.

But it's the problem is always always computation time, to an extent that most people on HN won't get. Maybe the finance guys. But you have to process a mountain of new data, then run the model very quickly for it to be any use at all to the public.

We should use reanalysis for nowcasting, that would be super accurate. /s