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Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

89 points| ArtWomb | 6 years ago |arxiv.org | reply

31 comments

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[+] throwaway41968|6 years ago|reply
While Taleb himself is kind of an asshole an endearing thing about him (to me at least) is that he pisses off bigger assholes and doesn't pull his punches when calling them out on their quackery. See e.g. the whole IQ debacle. Regardless of what you may think about him, his problematic views and his personality, call him abrasive, inflammatory, full of himself, whatever, but he's not ignorant, he's not a charlatan, he's not pretending to be someone that he's not.

In a way NNT reflects the original hacker ethos in all of its pristine and glorious ugliness.

[+] agent00f|6 years ago|reply
The problem with Taleb is that he's incapable of recognizing any error, and he's not smart enough to do novel intellectual work. I recall pointing out some trivial mistake in the stat reasoning on some Facebook post of his, in a comment section full of fawning adulation by sycophants, and was immediately banned.

What really draws people to him is that controversial overconfidence, mostly from folks who don't understand the math anyway but are drawn to the personality. It's the standard confidence con frankly not much more sophisticated than Alex Jones. He mostly got lucky publishing a book about market crashes right as the market crashed, that's pretty much the extent of what his fans understand about the matter.

[+] SkyMarshal|6 years ago|reply
When evaluating Taleb’s work you have to force yourself into a mindset of ignoring the messenger and focusing on the message. Load the content into your right-brain analytical mind and then firewall it off from your other reactions. Don’t let his personality induce bias into your analysis and judgement of his work.

Maybe you’ll ultimately find value in it, or maybe not. But you won’t know for sure if you’re spending most of your CPU cycles on hating the messenger.

It’s annoying to have to do, but a useful skill to work out and keep fit from time to time, not just for dealing with Taleb but plenty of other irksome sources in life.

[+] freepor|6 years ago|reply
Have to do this with Wolfram too. There’s a good mind and a good man behind all the puffery.
[+] machawinka|6 years ago|reply
This weird guy despises university professors while being one himself. Nevertheless, he has something to say and, personally, I have learned a few things from his books. Recommended.
[+] bernardv|6 years ago|reply
Thanks for the link. Just ‘flipped’ through the first few pages and my blood pressure is already way up.. the guy just can’t help himself antagonize his readers. It’s going to be a tough read..
[+] rfrey|6 years ago|reply
Any discussion about Taleb always leads to questions about why he picks such public fights. I've said this before:

The most salient anecdote Taleb tells about himself is the one where he's going onstage to debate an opponent. He asks his publisher if punching the other guy in the face would be against his contract, and his publisher notes that it would be very good for book sales.

All Taleb does is punch people in the face nowadays. It's probably very good for book sales. He notes elsewhere, rightly I think, that the goal of anybody seeking PR should be to get the attention of somebody more famous then them: since it's much easier to pick fights than make friendships, and either will do, he picks fights with anybody he thinks has prominence. I believe it's a persona, and he's a very good method actor.

[+] Swizec|6 years ago|reply
Reading Antifragile always felt like he's got some interesting insights, some of which feel quite quackery ... and the constant pot shots are unnecessary to the point of distraction.

We get it, you don't like academics and The Establishment. But do you have to mention it every other paragraph like a teenage boy?

Guess nobody gave him the Kill Your Darlings writing advice.

[+] xzel|6 years ago|reply
I very much love and hate NNT. I think my biggest gripe about him is most of his books and podcats are kind of the same story over and over again: fat tail/Poisson distribution realizations. I do find him interesting most of the time but I wish he would also cover more things. And sorry this is a generalization, I know not everything he puts out is this.
[+] rdlecler1|6 years ago|reply
He is so unnecessarily pedantic it comes out as great insecurity. He is so difficult to read. I would love it if a great copy editor just rewrote his work because the ideas are important. You could probably cut it half and make it accessible to more people. A shame.
[+] huffmsa|6 years ago|reply
It's not supposed to be accessible to everyone. I think he says as much in one of the books. He's not interested in being liked or broadly read, so much as saying what he wants to say.