[danielharan]

Combining outputs would be awesome.

Given comments on the Good Judgement Project, a lot of people are using the wrong reference class, so have bad base rates. The work could easily be split, defining the right reference class, while having others refine the rates for each.

I'd also like to have easy ways to make conditional forecasts. One of the questions I got much better than the average on the GJP concerned the likelihood of a US-China deal on emissions. Many forecasters assumed China would never agree to such a deal, because of how much they need to emit.

I knew China had been working on renewables, and would be likely to agree to a deal. I just didn't know about the diplomatic world. A way to tell those that know diplomacy that the economic and technology landscape had changed would have changed the calculus.

Averaging is great and all, but platforms should make collaboration easier.