[karpodiem]

He said a million self driving vehicles would be on the streets a year from FSD day.

To try to say the hardware for FSD is now present in 1M vehicles (which I doubt) is disingenuous to the insinuation Elon made that FSD is right around the corner. They're not meaningfully closer to FSD today than they were three years ago. Somewhat closer? Sure. A few feet on a journey that's a few miles though.

[zaroth]

> They're not meaningfully closer to FSD today than they were three years ago.

Actually driving a Tesla for 15,000 miles, of which perhaps 5,000 of those miles have been AP over the last 18 months, I can state this is totally false.

There has been extremely significant incremental progress with AP which is totally evident in everyday usage.

[bdamm]

Looking at how much has happened over the last two months though it seems that they are on the verge of something big. I'm on pins just waiting for stop light and stop sign detection to be integrated into lane keeping. They're already seeing them, they just need to put that data into action. In terms of my personal driving that'll be pretty big, road trips get a lot shorter when my attention isn't forced.

Turns through intersections is another area where Tesla's current implementation needs a lot of help (read: can barely do it at all) but should be within range soon given where they are at. And lane splits in city streets is definitely something the Tesla implementation is going to need to get better at before really making it door-to-door.

It's a very exciting, even historic time for self driving.

But yeah, taxi fleets are a ways out. There's a turn in the road just a 1/2 mile from my house where my Model 3 gives up every time.

[xkjkls]

Given that in many countries GPS barely works enough to order an Uber with a human driver, I'm highly skeptical of self-driving taxis.