I started following this outbreak about two weeks ago, when confirmed number of cases was still below 300 and 17 people had died. The confirmed cases were almost wholly contained in China, primarily just Wuhan province. At the time there was a lot of debate about the seriousness of the virus and the risk of a pandemic, and I was mostly sitting on the fence, looking back to SARS/Ebola and figuring a quarantine might be able to burn it out.
Today confirmed cases stand at 34,964, with 725 dead, and the virus spread to nearly 30 countries. I'd highly recommend this interview from a couple days ago with Neil Ferguson, director of the Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics at Imperial College London's School of Public Health[1]
Some highlights I'll quote, based on his team's modeling of the true situation vs. the necessarily incomplete confirmed cases:
- China: estimated 10% of total cases detected
- International: estimated 25% of total cases detected
- estimated 50,000 new infections per day in China
- Doubling every 5 days
- Onset to death can take up to 20 days (in fact I think we've seen deaths up to 30 days post-infection now)
The NYT today[2] also quotes leading experts that this virus is almost certain to become a pandemic, and no one can with certainty predict the consequences. All of which is just to say, I think it's time to stop the hot takes about how unseriously you're taking the situation. There seems to now be unanimity among global experts, who are taking it very very seriously indeed. The actions of widespread border closures, travel and economic shutdowns and China forcefully quarantining 500 million citizens also ought to suggest that governments are treating this far differently than the flu or in fact any sort of viral outbreak in perhaps modern history.
When the 2009 H1N1 flu virus hit, it infected 11% to 21% of the world's population. The mortality rate was low, at just 0.02%, but because of the number of people it infected it resulted in 284,000 deaths.
When a novel disease hits the population for the first time, it often spreads faster and wider than diseases for which we've developed some immunity.
The coronavirus mortality rate so far is alarmingly high. It is highly uncertain and very preliminary, but it could go in either direction. Early estimates of SARS were that it had a fatality rate of <3%. It was eventually revised upward to 9.6%.
I wonder if they may rush vaccine trials given the rate things are going? Imperial College for example have a candidate vaccine that "will go into the first animal experiments on Monday [10th February]" https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195055/imperial-researchers-...
Normally even if it works there'd be months of safety trails but if hundreds are dying daily of the virus it might be worth cutting corners on that perhaps. Especially for high risk groups.
So, today we're learning about 5 infections from a man coming from Singapore (not China) staying there in Contamines-Montjoie from 01/27 to 01/28. So we're now learning about infections from almost 2 weeks ago, almost a week before the last major airlines stopped their regular flight to/from China. And flights from/to Singapore are still going to this day. Makes you wonder how many people slipped through since then ... (sorry for my broken non native English)
Personally, I'm assuming this new virus has already gone global, with the scale of the outbreak in most major metropolitan areas a few weeks behind Wuhan. For practical purposes, I'm already lumping this new virus in my mind with the "seasonal flu," variants of which travel around the globe every year, requiring annual shots. It seems that most people who get infected have only mild symptoms.
Singapore seems to be the worst affected country out of China. If you read the news the virus is spreading person to person there in an uncontrolled way.
Considering the relatively small size of the country and its high population density I agree that it might be a higher risk that China as a whole.
Contamines comes, in that case, from Contamina which comes from Condominium (roughly co-administered property). But "Contaminated" sounds soooo much cooler right now, doesn't it?
I've read this several times. Could someone shed some light on this? Are the reported numbers impossible because they are too close to the curve? Or because the numbers should follow another curve? Could there be a hidden mechanism in the speed at which the virus is tested for that could explain the quadratic?
That and there was some news around that China’s infection rate matches the daily manufacturing supply of testing kits. With there not being enough kits to test patients.
Videos from China locals do show way more dead than the official numbers.
Certainly looks like it, two brits, each of whom attended business meetings there, are now confirmed.
I am worrying as I returned to the UK from Singapore a week ago and now have cold-like symptoms. No coughing, no raised temperature, lungs OK so far... but it's a worry.
(--edit-- actually it looks like one Brit, I had thought the new cases were related to a separate traveller, but it looks like it was the same guy)
A worldwide shutdown of airports for two weeks is out of the question, why exactly? This is a honest question.. Its obviously one of the most potent travel vectors of the virus. When the plague struck, harbours where closed, and gates where manned on both sides. It seems quite logical, to enforce quarantine this way.
Because that would be an eye-poppingly ridiculous response?
Seriously, this breathless "plague!" nonsense absolutely must stop and its purveyors should feel bad for doing so. Bubonic plague has an untreated mortality rate of fifty percent! This, on the other hand, is a nontrivial though increasingly global outbreak of a disease that is unlikely to seriously harm healthy people--CFR rate of mortality seems to be about three percent--and is predominantly a threat to the very young and the elderly.
If this sounds familiar that should be because it maps rather closely to the flu. There are 650,000 deaths per year from the flu--who's suggesting closing the airports over such a Threat To Humanity?
Turn the news off. If you have a brain predisposed to low-information panic it is bad for you.
Doing that would be a massive overcompensation. This virus is bad, and it's awful for the people that have it and their families, but it's not shut-down-the-world bad.
[+] [-] themgt|6 years ago|reply
Today confirmed cases stand at 34,964, with 725 dead, and the virus spread to nearly 30 countries. I'd highly recommend this interview from a couple days ago with Neil Ferguson, director of the Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics at Imperial College London's School of Public Health[1]
Some highlights I'll quote, based on his team's modeling of the true situation vs. the necessarily incomplete confirmed cases:
- China: estimated 10% of total cases detected
- International: estimated 25% of total cases detected
- estimated 50,000 new infections per day in China
- Doubling every 5 days
- Onset to death can take up to 20 days (in fact I think we've seen deaths up to 30 days post-infection now)
The NYT today[2] also quotes leading experts that this virus is almost certain to become a pandemic, and no one can with certainty predict the consequences. All of which is just to say, I think it's time to stop the hot takes about how unseriously you're taking the situation. There seems to now be unanimity among global experts, who are taking it very very seriously indeed. The actions of widespread border closures, travel and economic shutdowns and China forcefully quarantining 500 million citizens also ought to suggest that governments are treating this far differently than the flu or in fact any sort of viral outbreak in perhaps modern history.
[1] https://youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandem...
[+] [-] JauntTrooper|6 years ago|reply
When the 2009 H1N1 flu virus hit, it infected 11% to 21% of the world's population. The mortality rate was low, at just 0.02%, but because of the number of people it infected it resulted in 284,000 deaths.
When a novel disease hits the population for the first time, it often spreads faster and wider than diseases for which we've developed some immunity.
The coronavirus mortality rate so far is alarmingly high. It is highly uncertain and very preliminary, but it could go in either direction. Early estimates of SARS were that it had a fatality rate of <3%. It was eventually revised upward to 9.6%.
[+] [-] agumonkey|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tim333|6 years ago|reply
Normally even if it works there'd be months of safety trails but if hundreds are dying daily of the virus it might be worth cutting corners on that perhaps. Especially for high risk groups.
[+] [-] Cantbekhan|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cs702|6 years ago|reply
Consider: Many major cities in China already have infected populations in the hundreds or thousands, and growing: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... -- these are official, confirmed figures.
See also https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820... for maximum-likelihood estimates of the size of the outbreak as of month-end.
[+] [-] mytailorisrich|6 years ago|reply
Considering the relatively small size of the country and its high population density I agree that it might be a higher risk that China as a whole.
[+] [-] speedgoose|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hef19898|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] m4rtink|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hedora|6 years ago|reply
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22275092
[+] [-] xfs|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jobigoud|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hef19898|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cobookman|6 years ago|reply
Videos from China locals do show way more dead than the official numbers.
[+] [-] ryanobjc|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Nursie|6 years ago|reply
I am worrying as I returned to the UK from Singapore a week ago and now have cold-like symptoms. No coughing, no raised temperature, lungs OK so far... but it's a worry.
(--edit-- actually it looks like one Brit, I had thought the new cases were related to a separate traveller, but it looks like it was the same guy)
[+] [-] mytailorisrich|6 years ago|reply
Latest new case there is not known to have been in contact with any known contaminated person, which is bad news.
[+] [-] DayDollar|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] eropple|6 years ago|reply
Seriously, this breathless "plague!" nonsense absolutely must stop and its purveyors should feel bad for doing so. Bubonic plague has an untreated mortality rate of fifty percent! This, on the other hand, is a nontrivial though increasingly global outbreak of a disease that is unlikely to seriously harm healthy people--CFR rate of mortality seems to be about three percent--and is predominantly a threat to the very young and the elderly.
If this sounds familiar that should be because it maps rather closely to the flu. There are 650,000 deaths per year from the flu--who's suggesting closing the airports over such a Threat To Humanity?
Turn the news off. If you have a brain predisposed to low-information panic it is bad for you.
[+] [-] jagger27|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 0xTJ|6 years ago|reply
[+] [-] yread|6 years ago|reply
https://sinopsis.cz/en/an-analysis-of-reported-cases-of-2019...
The deaths are really mostly old people with preexisting conditions there.
[+] [-] anonsivalley652|6 years ago|reply
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