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cklaus | 6 years ago

American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:

96,000,000 infections

4,800,000 hospitalizations

1,900,000 ICU admissions

480,000 deaths

vs flu in 2019:

35,500,000 infections

490,600 hospitalizations

49,000 ICU admissions

34,200 deaths

discuss

order

nateberkopec|6 years ago

"The American Hospital Association said the webinar reflects the views of the experts who spoke on it, not its own."

You're quoting the opinion of one person: Dr James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Centre. That person researches infectious diseases, so, their opinion isn't a complete guess of course, but we should ascribe the numbers to the right source.

nabla9|6 years ago

Where it says next 2 months?

If the doubling time is one week there is just something like 100k - 200k infections in next two months.

I think those numbers are yearly infection estimates.

graeme|6 years ago

I think the graph meant 96 million infections active in the peak two months. Hard to be sure without seeing the presentation, but it definitely isn’t the next two months.