[samdoidge]

> If the markets are like this when there are a few hundred cases in the UK and US, what will they be like when there are tens, or hundreds of thousands of cases and major cities are in lockdown?

Investors are trying to judge the likelihood of these very events and selling / buying accordingly. Markets are based on predictions.

[oxymoran]

Exactly. When the virus is at its worst is when the market will start to bounce back because recovery will be priced in. The markets are all about the value of the future. That’s why it’s all kind of a joke to me. Its based on hopes and dreams(or fears and nightmares) instead of how a company is actually doing.

[simonh]

Of course, but those predictions are only based on available information. We probably won’t know which companies will be worst affected, or where. There’s no way anyone could have predicted Lombardy would be the first part of Europe to be hit so hard. When particular companies, regions and industries turn out to be more severely affected, they will take the hit asymmetrically, but that will hurt the overall market. The current impact us being gauged fairly tentatively IMHO.

For example it’s likely several more airlines will go to the wall, but we don’t know which ones yet.

[Consultant32452]

To your point, online grocers and retailers like Amazon are getting an extra Christmas rush this year.