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What we can learn from the 1918 flu pandemic

123 points| jkuria | 6 years ago |wsj.com | reply

105 comments

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[+] burlesona|6 years ago|reply
This is a really good article, and the contrast in the outcomes between Philadelphia and St. Louis is such a clear example why aggressive social distancing is so crucial right now. Thanks for sharing!
[+] melling|6 years ago|reply
I was watching this clip of Michael Osterholm on Joe Rogen:

https://youtu.be/B6IgMdsZHbM

He said the covid-19 would eventually slow once enough people get it then we’ll have sufficient immunity that it won’t spread.

Of course, he also said a lot of people are going to get it and we’re at the very beginning of a multi-year problem.

[+] ajross|6 years ago|reply
Yes, realistically the world will be playing whack-a-mole over the coming months as city after city experiences an outbreak that saturates its health care facilities and has to lock down. It will seem endless.

But with each outbreak more people will acquire immunity, and eventually the peaks will be lower than capacity.

But it's going to be a rough road to get there, and we'll all suffer on some level. This isn't going to be "over" for quite some time.

[+] the6threplicant|6 years ago|reply
In other words it's following a logistics curve. This is what every pandemic does: the problem is that we can't know when the inflection point is. Sometimes it's quite early on, and sometimes it isn't. Plan for the latter, hope for the former.
[+] usrusr|6 years ago|reply
If official numbers are less than 90% off even Wuhan hasn't reached anything close to saturation yet.
[+] omarhaneef|6 years ago|reply
Does this mean it is better to get it very early before the health system stresses out (might be too late for that and this is a selfish sort of thing anyway), or medium early before you are so old that your immune system is crap, or very late when they have effective vaccines. Anytime but right now, basically.
[+] aaron695|6 years ago|reply
The Spanish Flu was previous to really having cars or dual incomes.

I'm not sure you can learn the same lessons.

I don't shop in the same stores as any of my friends for instance. I only occasionally see acquaintances at the shops.

H1N1 case study in Texas is interesting.

Italian Grandparents Step in as Schools Close Amid COVID https://time.com/5797637/italian-grandparents-coronavirus-ba...

[+] squarefoot|6 years ago|reply
About the grandparents caring for the children: it's true that this could pose a risk, however it also keeps the risk confined to a single family circle, which wouldn't be the case with a nanny who could then potentially spread the infection to her own family or other families kids.
[+] ktr|6 years ago|reply
For a fascinating, in-depth look at the Spanish flu of 1918 check out John Barry’s “The Great Influenza” [1]. The book was amazing and gives you a real sense of what one of the worst pandemics in history must have been like.

[1] The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History https://www.amazon.com/dp/0143036491.

[+] francisofascii|6 years ago|reply
FWIW, I recently ordered a Spanish Flu book by Gina Kolata, and it took more than a week to arrive instead of the normal two days. Kindle version might be a better bet.
[+] Stevvo|6 years ago|reply
If it spreads to infect a large proportion of the world's population, it way be beneficial to get it now, before the healthcare services are overwhelmed.
[+] sigstoat|6 years ago|reply
might've been an option a month and a half ago. but: exponential growth. most western countries are _days_ behind italy. if you're destined to downturn, it'll take you a week or more to need the ventilator, and you'd be on it for some time.
[+] sten|6 years ago|reply
Only for the first few people who do it and it will come at a great cost to everyone else. Classic collective action problem at work and down right dangerous thinking. If even a fraction of the population acts on this idea the rate of transmission will increase and the overall outcome of the event will be worse.

Flatten the curve. Reduce the rate of spread. Buy time to keep the strain on the health care industry as low as possible. Increase the probability that vaccinations can be produced in time to assist. And stop spreading this ridiculous idea.

[+] alex_young|6 years ago|reply
I know about archive.org etc, but it’s really striking to see public health reporting behind a paywall.
[+] o_____________o|6 years ago|reply
Yeah, and FTA:

> In the face of highly variable responses from public officials, the media served as an essential ally of the public health community in fighting the pandemic.

[+] allovernow|6 years ago|reply
I've been extremely pessimistic since early January when I started following this obsessively - and I still think it's going to get far worse before it gets better.

But there is a silver lining here. This is probably the first time in history that a disease will have this much attention from so many researchers. There's a good chance someone will find a cure or prophylactic relatively soon, even if a vaccine is unlikely.

Also any potential drug will be put on rush evaluation so things should move quickly - there's Hope yet.

[+] nkozyra|6 years ago|reply
I agree. And yet there are swarms of people complaining the media attention is alarmist or that this is no big deal.

Pretty sure public response so far, at least stateside.