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shanxS | 6 years ago

From the article

Paper: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj...

Video(not in English): https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/coronavirus-diagnosti...

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bertil|6 years ago

That researcher is likely, at best, controversial:

- he starts by arguing against quarantine; his point is that it didn’t work for Cholera in 1832;

- he dismisses two thirds of the efforts against HIV/AIDS: understanding transmission effort and promoting condoms, focusing on treatment lowering viral load;

- he then moves on to framing response to the pandemic in a conspiracy-sounding “shift of power towards the Far East”;

- he then says “most countries” have chosen to test extensively early — I don’t think that’s really true: South Korea, has but I don’t think many other did;

- he’s surprisingly unmoved by mortality on the cruise boat ashore Japan; I know epidemiologists can seem comfortable with terrifying stats, but he’s more than that.

He’s not terrible over all and fairly eloquent to make his case but I’d take his presentation with a grain of salt.

Key points:

- children don’t seem to be contagious (they are asymptomatic but vectors for the flu);

- viral loads are more predictive than anything;

- people appear contagious for 20 days; key point isn’t a fix duration but measuring viral load and isolating anyone with a high level;

- the hospital has 143 samples, they are looking forward to comparing genes with symptoms.

He’s happy that people are attacking him for advertising chloroquinine because the controversy drives traffic… Not sure most doctors would be confortable with that media strategy. He’s unhappy that television features people without qualification, though.

He compares his findings with similar findings in China and Korea with slightly different treatment (600 mg vs 2x500 hydroxi-chloroquinine, which he claims to have been the first to propose for other infections).

He uses patients from nearby town who didn’t receive the treatment in a quasi-experiment on the impact on viral-load duration. He’s also recommending a combination with an anti-biotic because complications are often microbial.

His final point is to not recommend to go home but be tested and treated.

I think that he’s onto something scientifically and he could be talking about it on TV but before that, he _needs_ to get some media training to focus on the positive.

psadac1|6 years ago

That researcher is probably one of the best experts on communicable diseases with decades of experience : http://www.expertscape.com/ex/communicable+diseases

He has published at least 71 articles : http://www.expertscape.com/ar/communicable+diseases/a/Raoult...

His most recent article seems to be "Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine as available weapons to fight COVID-19" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32145363

Have you already published something in this domain ? Is it your field of expertise ?

heyoni|6 years ago

I don't see how any of what he's saying can be interpreted as controversial and I think you're nitpicking. I watched his presentation and to me he is clearly suggesting we move to a treatment based approach _after_ finding something that works, while suggesting that we can do better than we did with cholera and aids - medical professionals didn't even want to test their patients.

And obviously nothing coming out now is going to be clinical trial grade research! At least you admit that he's onto something, so it's strange to see you up and down this thread criticizing his work and presentation.

dillondoyle|6 years ago

One one point, HIV treatments is so effective now (viral load undetectable) that many don't use condoms with informed partners. On the other end of the spectrum PrEP has been wildly successful in virtually eliminating transmission. And we know humans are not great at using condoms despite the risks.

agumonkey|6 years ago

question about viral load[0]: do masks reduce it ?

[0] IIUC viral load means amount of viruses getting in your system

tunesmith|6 years ago

does higher viral load mean worse symptoms?