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California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order

398 points| pseudolus | 6 years ago |reuters.com | reply

620 comments

order
[+] hkmurakami|6 years ago|reply
Good move by Newsom considering there were photos of people in socal still going to bars.

Judging by how long the shelter in place has lasted and affected curves in Asia, we should be prepared for ~2 months as a baseline. From what we're hearing from friends, life is starting to return to normalcy in Hong Kong, with no new domestic cases reported (though now they're contending with new imported cases from overseas travelers returning home). They have a really effective screening/tracking quarantine system in place where they'll give you a location tracking wristband for remote monitoring.

Our family has been affected by this since late January, and there's a big mental challenge aspect to this. Being able to walk outside (unlike in Wuhan) is really big.

It's truly unfortunate that the the country's health services bungled their initial testing and screening ramp up.

[+] twblalock|6 years ago|reply
At some point we do have to consider that shutting down the majority of the economy will ruin more lives than letting the virus infect everyone.

Keeping in mind that most young people who get the virus will survive, this is a massive generational sacrifice by the same people who left college around the time of the 2008 crash to protect older people. Anyone who thinks this is only going to last 3 weeks is just not being realistic.

Of course nobody wants to callously stand by while older Americans die of the virus. My own parents are at risk. I myself have asthma and I don't really know what my chances would be. However, the worst-case scenario in 20 years is that the older people we saved by sheltering in place will be gone, but the consequences of shutting down the economy will still haunt everyone living.

There are long-term trade-offs to consider here, particularly ruining the lives of the young in order to save the old, and I don't think they are being considered properly.

In an ideal world we would not need to make choices like this, but the choice is real and we can't fumble it.

I feel like a bit of a dick for posting this, but after reflection I do think it's a valid point and we cannot escape the trade-offs I described.

[+] pcwalton|6 years ago|reply
"Letting the virus infect everyone" at a 1% death rate means 3 million deaths in the US, right up there with the worst catastrophes of the 20th century. You can change the death rate and projections of number infected needed to get herd immunity and move that number around, of course, but not enough to change the overall moral calculus.
[+] rgbrenner|6 years ago|reply
I see a lot of replies treating this as an either/or: we all isolate, or none of us do. But that's not the real choice.

People who are elderly or have health conditions that put them at high risk could isolate themselves for the next several months while the virus makes its way through the population. When enough people get it, herd immunity will develop and then those people will be protected. High risk individuals have a personal responsibility to isolate and protect themselves.

I don't know if this is just my community, but I went to the store (out of necessity) twice during the past week or so... and both times it was filled with elderly individuals. It very much made me feel like we were all sacrificing so that the elderly didn't have to.

[+] Zenst|6 years ago|reply
>2008 crash to protect older people

I had no idea they had audited the age of the bankers who caused that mess. Only one I'm aware of was https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Leeson who brought down an entire bank at the age of 25.

As for your darwinistic-eugenics as an old person, sure I'm happy with that, but the question is - would you be happy with that when your older and somebody else's kids suggests the same thing. Not that easy to answer.

But whatever age people are, the penchant to begrudge the age groups above them to varying degrees and reasons tends to be strong, at least until they reach their 40's. At least that is what I have observed from many years of experience of many age ranges.

> In an ideal world we would not need to make choices like this, but the choice is real and we can't fumble it.

I suspect the film Logan's Run would be worth a watch if you have not seen it. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074812/

Oh I'd also add, we have not seen results of sterility post infection - that data might change your perspective if we end up finding out that the chances of becoming sterile due to infection of this are high. Which is still an unknown and not to be ruled out.

[+] tempestn|6 years ago|reply
There is an alternative: locking down until testing can be significantly ramped up. This wouldn't need to take more than a month or two. The cost to test even everyone in the population on a weekly basis is much, much lower than the cost of being locked down, and once that infrastructure was in place, other measures could be dropped, because we would know and could isolate only those who are infected (symptomatic or not).

Edit: I should add that ramping up testing may take longer than that. I'm not an expert; just going by what I've read. Even so though, we should definitely aim to scale up testing as much as possible; the better our testing, the less restrictive and long-lasting isolation measures will need to be.

[+] gdubs|6 years ago|reply
The newest CDC estimates are that young people require hospitalization at rates between 1 in 7 and 1 in 5. At scale, that’s an enormous number. The “flatten the curve” trope feels a bit tired at this point, but it’s true nonetheless. We have to avoid breaking our medical system at all costs.

If we don’t, what happens to the rather large percentage of young people who require hospitalization? It’s no stretch to assume that many would die. Let alone the fact that mortality for young people is already many times higher than the flu. Break the healthcare system and that goes up dramatically.

On top of that, break the healthcare system and what happens to all the normal, baseline, hospitalization needs? They’re not going to suddenly disappear. Survivable medical events become fatal.

How do you recover as a society from that, without an economic depression like none we’ve seen in our lifetime?

We desperately want to prevent an economic depression, and for good reason! But the chessboard is what it is. We don’t have a whole lot of moves.

[+] yongjik|6 years ago|reply
I admire your optimism that the economy will not shut down when people are found dead at homes because hospitals are full. Which is what's going to happen if we let it spread now.
[+] jmull|6 years ago|reply
The economy is going to shut down a lot harder than this when people start dying in the streets. The health care system will be overwhelmed early. At that point the mortality rate for cv and everything else will shoot up and people will be dying everywhere. You’re thinking, hey, let’s let the old people die, they’re going to die eventually anyway. But it’s going to be a lot more than some soon-to-be-dead anyway people dying. At that point, people will be far too frightened to just go to work like normal, and the normal infrastructure that delivers food, electricity and fuel will break down.
[+] sumofi|6 years ago|reply
Im happy to share wealth for people I love.

Nonetheless I also think that they do factor this in. If your health system breaks down around the world it might become very catastrophic.

And in Italy there have been enough not only old people dying.

[+] vladus2000|6 years ago|reply
Even if you are right, in the US almost all old people vote and a small amount of young people do. Guess what that means for politicians? They do what is best for the old. Not to mention a lot of young people don't really want to watch their parents and other elderly family members die en masse so they would probably be against this too.
[+] CryptoBanker|6 years ago|reply
People need to really stop parroting this claim that young people aren't susceptible to COVID-19...data from Italy and the CDC indicates that young people are at risk as well...
[+] rootusrootus|6 years ago|reply
This works for a while, but we can't realistically expect to just shut the country down for the next year or so. Surely there is some kind of plan to try to actively suppress the virus rather than just reduce the R0 slightly? While Congress throws around a trillion here, trillion there, why not make testing every last American (multiple times, as necessary) priority #1? Then we can get people back to work much sooner, and let the economy start to recover.
[+] anarazel|6 years ago|reply
(not not an epidemiologist, just interested)

Once testing becomes widespread enough that it's feasible to test a lot more people it's quite plausible to relax the restrictions. One big problem before the recent "shelter in place" state is that community transmission by asymptomatic people was/is out of control.

If only strongly symptomatic people are "allowed" to be tested and health care professions aren't tested, it's basically impossible to restrict spread of something as infectious as covid-19. And once people with a lot of contacts have it, and stay in contact, further spread will obviously accelerate.

If you look at the buildup of test capacity in the US (far far to late obviously), it's improving at a decent rate (from a totally embarrassing starting point):

https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

(there's a lot of differening sources, several lagging, but the trend is similar afaictl)

So there finally does appear to be some serious and successful effort in building up test capacity. Testing everyone in the US seems far off still though.

Given the rates of hospitalization and available beds / respirators, it'd however be insane to rely on testing at this point. Spread would be far too fast, and there's obviously not enough testing.

But if infections slow down due to the isolation, and testing ramps up at the same time...

[+] vanusa|6 years ago|reply
This works for a while, but we can't realistically expect to just shut the country down for the next year or so.

I read it more as a "Shut it all down please, then let's figure out which parts we can start to re-open in 4-6 weeks" order.

[+] dimator|6 years ago|reply
you're right, testing is the long term solution. you can't control what you can't measure.

the embarrassing point is that in the US, isolation is the only effective tool at this point. it's embarrassing because ramping up testing was what South Korea did, and they started much sooner, and that's why they are over the hump now. the US simply doesn't have the testing scaled up.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testin...

[+] MiroF|6 years ago|reply
> why not make testing every last American (multiple times, as necessary) priority #1

These discussions are so far divorced from the reality of the interventions available to policymakers.

[+] capkutay|6 years ago|reply
The idea is just to buy as much time as possible. There are hundreds of clinical trials for treatments going on across the planet...it's possible chloroquine may even be identified as prophylactic.

Also need to give our healthcare workers time to mobilize all their emergency measures to handle surge capacity. I'd imagine the Bay Area is about 2-3 weeks away from its peak number of cases given the quarantine just started last weekend.

[+] anonuser123456|6 years ago|reply
There aren't enough tests, and we need time to scale out the testing. So a 3-4 week period to put a tight clamp on transmission is probably not a bad idea.

Frankly, I expect in 3 weeks people won't need the order because it will be like Italy and people will be terrified to go outside. But at that point, you STILL have 3-4 weeks before things turn around.

[+] Consultant32452|6 years ago|reply
Testing is insufficient. There is no herd immunity to this and that is what they are building. With a disease this virulent, without herd immunity, it will just spread like wildfire again as soon as you loosen up restrictions. There's two paths to herd immunity: vaccine and everyone gets it. Vaccine is probably a year off and not guaranteed. Until then they will be going forward with a hopefully manageable rolling # of infected until herd immunity is built. We're at what, 14k have been infected so far? We're nowhere close to the end. In my opinion, until you start seeing herd immunity scale of people who have been infected and recovered, or a vaccine, we will see pretty stark differences in our lifestyles.

Also consider the asymmetric knowledge here. The people in power surely know things they aren't telling you. Destroying the economy is not in their best interest. How bad must it have to be for them to be willing to destroy the global economy and potentially their own fortunes and power structures?

[+] gdubs|6 years ago|reply
Bill Gates did an AMA on Reddit and said the optimistic angle is that the antivirals and various therapeutics, etc, will come much faster than a vaccine and bring the rate of infection down. Clamping down now buys some time. Nothing is guaranteed of course, except for letting it “run its course” in which case the system risks collapse and you end up with bigger problems than we even face now.

People treat this like a binary choice between “save the economy” and “save the elderly”, but if you’ve been following this at all it’s clear that there’s no simple answer in either direction.

[+] pgsbathhouse2|6 years ago|reply
>This works for a while, but we can't realistically expect to just shut the country down for the next year or so.

We didn't shut down. We stopped doing what's unnecessary.

There's a big difference, and now that reality has made us "wake up" we should probably reevaluate how we structure our economy and society.

[+] salty_biscuits|6 years ago|reply
The tests aren't perfect. False positive and negative rates are non negligible. Not saying that they are not useful, just they don't solve the problem on their own.
[+] closeparen|6 years ago|reply
As a software engineer, permanent WFH sounds great. As a young adult thinking I should build more cooking skills, this is the perfect opportunity. But as a household of one, isolation is terrifying. I'm not sure how long literally zero human contact is sustainable. I hope we can at least re-enable 1:1 social visits at home before too many months pass.

It's also hard to imagine that couples who live apart are actually going to stay away from each other until the vaccine.

[+] scotty79|6 years ago|reply
Good luck with suppressing the virus in the US while 5 billion people in the world get infected.
[+] hkmurakami|6 years ago|reply
There's a huge international effort to develop a vaccine or a suppressant, etc.

The US doesn't have even close to the necessary number of testing kits or infrastructure to test 300 million people. They're working on ramping up production and availability of tests.

[+] guerrilla|6 years ago|reply
Besides supply issues, that hardly seems realistic when the US can barely manage to collect taxes, a trivial activity in other modern countries.
[+] ccktlmazeltov|6 years ago|reply
Testing leads to panic. The threat number one to the US economy is panic. Whatever happens next, panic is much much more damaging for the economy and for stability.

There's already a plan in place, and most people don't know it but there's already a timeline. At this point testing people is useless: hospitals already provide numbers to the government.

[+] irrational|6 years ago|reply
This is fine for people like me that can work from home, no problem. But most of my neighbors are freaking out because they are not getting paid and have no way to pay bills, rent, etc. I can't see how this will not end up as the most major worldwide depression ever.
[+] hedora|6 years ago|reply
I’m more and more worried this is an overreaction, even ignoring the economic impact. Look at the projections on page 19:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

They seem to have picked the green line and not the orange line. Hopefully they’re planning for intermittent social distancing, or have some other medium term plan.

[+] implying|6 years ago|reply
I haven't seen this reported elsewhere:

The executive order at https://covid19.ca.gov/img/N-33-20.pdf cites Government Law 8665 to enforce itself, which reads:

  CA Govt Code § 8665 (2017)  

  Any person who violates any of the provisions of this chapter or who refuses or willfully neglects to obey any lawful order or regulation promulgated or issued as provided in this chapter, shall be guilty of a misdemeanor and, upon conviction thereof, shall be punishable by a fine of not to exceed one thousand dollars ($1,000) or by imprisonment for not to exceed six months or by both such fine and imprisonment.
Six months of jail time and $1,000 is what they are threatening us with.
[+] danso|6 years ago|reply
A little more info from SFGate:

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Coronavirus-Atria-Bur...

> The order is completely identical to the one in the Bay Area, meaning individuals can also leave their houses to take a walk or go for a jog so long as they are practicing the requisite precautions when coming into contact with another individual.

[+] Leary|6 years ago|reply
People look at the thousands of deaths in China and Italy and may think this is an overreaction.

What they don't realize is that those figures are the result of tough lockdowns, without which, the death toll would've been easier an order of magnitude greater.

California has shown true leadership in this crisis. I hope New York and Washington will soon follow.

[+] ab_testing|6 years ago|reply
I think that California and very soon the whole of US would need to shift to survival of the fittest mode. The US population cannot survive multiple weeks without a paycheck. Any unemployment that is received is just enough to put food on the table but not pay rent.

Some statistics on lower wage workers

* 152 Million people worked in US in Feb 2020

* 16 Million of those in retail (A huge majority of them would be unemployed ~50%)

* 17 Million people worked in Leisure and Hospitality (If bars/restaurants/movie theaters/theme parks/casinos stay closed around 80% of them are unemployed

* 3 Million people work in educational services . With schools and colleges closing a majority of them are unemployed.

Source of data https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

* You can only keep things shutdown until people are either begging on the streets or rioting

[+] yibg|6 years ago|reply
I think about this a lot too. China in general has a much higher savings rate. Where as the US has a large proportion of the population that live pay check to pay check. What happens after a month and things are still not contained?
[+] simlevesque|6 years ago|reply
This is why the US is not a good place to live in.
[+] btilly|6 years ago|reply
I have read a number of public health orders relating to COVID and this is by far the worst written.

The Bay area one allows people to get out and walk for exercise. This does not.

The article doesn't bother linking to the actual order. https://covid19.ca.gov/img/N-33-20.pdf has the text of the order. It just said the critical infrastructure sections. The (non-linked) URL for which is https://www.cisa.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors. Which is extremely vague.

For example should my local Best Buy remain open because it is part of the Information Technology sector? Or is providing people with headphone adaptors for work at home not critical infrastructure? I have no clue! I hope that they do.

[+] ethank|6 years ago|reply
California has the biggest agriculture, port and manufacturing base in the US basically. The county orders contradict the state.

OC is letting factories stay open with conditions and LA is saying the port stays open as well as the trains, airports (especially KSBD which is Amazon's home base). What a mess.

[+] gamblor956|6 years ago|reply
LA has also issued its own stay at home "order." During the initial part of the press conference, it was explicitly described as not a lockdown.

The statewide order is similar. Strongly recommended that people stay indoors, but outdoor activities are still allowed.

In both cases, the orders do not include any potential punishments (to individuals) for violating the order. (There are punishments outlined for businesses.)

[+] 0xffff2|6 years ago|reply
IANAL, but violating the county orders in the bay area was widely cited as a being a misdemeanor offense. There were also platitudes from law enforcement about "compassionate enforcement", but the potential for punishment is there.
[+] asveikau|6 years ago|reply
In SF they said it was a misdemeanor, but that being cited for it would be a last resort, that they would seek voluntary compliance before getting to that point.
[+] H8crilA|6 years ago|reply
Now I'm waiting for the same thing from the US president and leaders of other "laggard" countries.
[+] s1artibartfast|6 years ago|reply
This order is very vague with respect to what critical infrastructure and workers entials.

Based on the linked definition, every worker fits into one of the critical business types.

[+] httpz|6 years ago|reply
This may buy some time but we can't be in lockdown forever. Testing infra really needs to ramp up during this time. S.Korea never actually ordered any stay at home order. People are voluntarily avoiding going outside and aggressive testing is paying off.
[+] serf|6 years ago|reply
A 65+ year old family member works in the defense industry as an engineer.

They are being asked to continue a commute into Los Angeles, continue a job that doesn't allow for social distancing, and isn't being provided with any protection items, whatsoever.

They are told that they are essential, and that they cannot have time off. Let me make this clear : They are a civilian, entirely.

I SURE hope that those who do indeed get sick from the poor decisions of their employers will have some path available to them legally to make the irresponsibility righted in some way.

[+] aazaa|6 years ago|reply
The order is vague about shopping for groceries.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-read-the-...

Given that at least one employee of a grocery store has tested positive in CA, it seems that grocery stores, where large numbers of people congregate and touch surfaces, could be a loophole to be addressed... somehow.

[+] firefoxd|6 years ago|reply
In my Neighborhood, there is street sweeping on Wednesday and Thursday. A couple days ago, the Mayor of LA announced that they won't be giving parking tickets because of the situation. Well, this morning everyone got tickets. It's not that the residents are too lazy to move their cars. This is LA, there is no parking. We only get space if a good chunk of us are at work.

Yeah, let's all stay at Home. But let's also not get punished for it.

[+] siquick|6 years ago|reply
Bond Beach in Sydney had several thousand people on it last night, pubs and bars are still operating as normal in my area - the only thing thats changed is most corporate people re working from home yet are still meeting with friends. I've had 4 invites to gatherings over the next few days.

We here in Sydney are (as usual) sleep walking into a big mess.