> Because all the studies I have read flu is a lot more dangerous
Every study I've seen the seasonal flu has a case mortality rate that varies form year to year in the close neighborhood of 0.1%, the low estimate of the case mortality rate I've seen for covid-19 is around 1% in countries with functional healthcare systems. The ratio of cases requiring hospitalization is similarly at least an order of magnitude greater for Covid-19, which is also why it poses a danger (already being realized in several parts of the United States, and very much realized, e.g., in Italy) of overwhelming the healthcare system, driving the car mortality rate higher for all conditions, including itself.
We don't annually overwhelm the healthcare system because of the seasonal flu and exhaust ICU capacity and PPE supplies, which should be a clue that whatever you are seeing claiming the flu is worse is not only bullshit, but bullshit that isn't even trying very hard to convince anyone paying even a little bit of attention.
I actually don't think deep analyses comparing covid to flu are outright bs, even if I'm skeptical covid could have such a low death rate. Reading a lot, I've generally come to the conclusion that IFR of covid-19 is under an order of magnitude higher than flu, even if likely considerably higher (my guess above is 7x, could be as low as 5x). Regardless, the pandemics speed is a huge problem which can overwhelm hospitals.
The only data broad enough to predict true cases is Diamond Princess or perhaps Iceland where you've had enormous testing. Even on Diamond Princess, you have 10/712 infections resulting in death which is worse than flu (for this population), but not 10x as bad. Iceland has 2 deaths and 25 hospitalized against 500+ cases 1.5w ago, suggestive of a sub 1% CFR.
Additionally, flu CFR is reduced by targetted vaccination of the most vulnerable people (demographics of who get infected are more likely to survive than general population).
10/710 infections on the Diamond Princess died. Would you expect flu to kill that many? (Older population but healthier than average older population).
Again, I don't subscribe to the hypothesis that flu iir = covid iir, but what you are seeing isn't incompatible with that hypothesis. The hypothesis is that iir is the same, but covid has a way higher transmission rate.
So what you are seeing in Italy (or Wuhan for that matter) is a symptom of:
1. A 4 month flu season compacted into a month
2. Hospitals collapsing from the load pulling death rate way up.
3. A lack of vaccination (which limits the deaths/year due to flu)
Honestly, we won't know what the case was until a few months from now when broad, randomized seriological tests are run.
dragonwriter|6 years ago
Every study I've seen the seasonal flu has a case mortality rate that varies form year to year in the close neighborhood of 0.1%, the low estimate of the case mortality rate I've seen for covid-19 is around 1% in countries with functional healthcare systems. The ratio of cases requiring hospitalization is similarly at least an order of magnitude greater for Covid-19, which is also why it poses a danger (already being realized in several parts of the United States, and very much realized, e.g., in Italy) of overwhelming the healthcare system, driving the car mortality rate higher for all conditions, including itself.
We don't annually overwhelm the healthcare system because of the seasonal flu and exhaust ICU capacity and PPE supplies, which should be a clue that whatever you are seeing claiming the flu is worse is not only bullshit, but bullshit that isn't even trying very hard to convince anyone paying even a little bit of attention.
usaar333|6 years ago
The only data broad enough to predict true cases is Diamond Princess or perhaps Iceland where you've had enormous testing. Even on Diamond Princess, you have 10/712 infections resulting in death which is worse than flu (for this population), but not 10x as bad. Iceland has 2 deaths and 25 hospitalized against 500+ cases 1.5w ago, suggestive of a sub 1% CFR.
Additionally, flu CFR is reduced by targetted vaccination of the most vulnerable people (demographics of who get infected are more likely to survive than general population).
usaar333|6 years ago
10/710 infections on the Diamond Princess died. Would you expect flu to kill that many? (Older population but healthier than average older population).
gpderetta|6 years ago
usaar333|6 years ago
So what you are seeing in Italy (or Wuhan for that matter) is a symptom of:
1. A 4 month flu season compacted into a month 2. Hospitals collapsing from the load pulling death rate way up. 3. A lack of vaccination (which limits the deaths/year due to flu)
Honestly, we won't know what the case was until a few months from now when broad, randomized seriological tests are run.