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schadara | 6 years ago
China locked down and won a battle, but you will likely see another outbreak in a few weeks, and if they lockdown again, there will be another outbreak when they open up again. The daily cases chart will look like a dribbling ball.
Notice that US officials are focusing flattening the curve, instead of a strict quarantine to prevent all infections. It's not only because they're worried about the economy or the logistics. It's because a strict quarantine only works if everyone is doing it - I mean EVERYONE in the world. If we do a Nationwide lockdown, we will need to do another one when an asymptomatic visitor/citizen enters/returns to the US.
I see two outcomes: 1) Eventually, most everyone will either be infected or immunized for this pandemic to stop. 2) We do a global lockdown for 5 weeks.
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