[gph]

You say that with such conviction when you don't have any better info on what the future holds than anyone else.

The unemployment benefits (which for many of the unemployed will actually be higher than their regular pay) last for the next four months. If the quarantine lifts by the end of May and businesses reopen then it will be enough. Obviously that's a big if, but for you to come out here and act like you know something with 100% certainty is absurd.

[treis]

We've had plenty of recessions before and not once has the economy simply been restarted. To use an example, I work on software for a company in the dental field. The circle is:

Nobody is going to the dentist because of Covid -> Dentist stops using my client's services -> Client cancels my project -> I get laid off -> I can't afford to go to the dentist -> Nobody goes to the dentist because they can't afford it.

That story is true for every industry. And it gets worse. In anticipation of the economic storm coming we have stopped all non-essential purchases. Which means a whole lot of businesses are out of revenue. Multiply that across the economy and everything but essentials is grinding to a halt.

The only way out of it, that I see, is the government stepping in and guaranteeing, without a salary cap, unemployment benefits at 80-90% of salary for as long as the crisis lasts. Even then I'm not sure it's enough to fix the actual damage that has happened.

[StillBored]

Exactly, and because everyone is leveraged, unless they magically extend the terms on your mortgage (not just delay them) your going to be behind by a month or two for a lot longer than 3 months. Many people have been saying for the last decade+ that a huge portion of the population is working paycheck to paycheck. That means that they don't have enough savings to absorb an extra rent payment, and they won't have them if/when they start working again. either.

This might have worked for a couple days, but no way it works for multiple weeks.

[toomuchtodo]

My statement was based on an interview with Congressional representatives aired on NPR yesterday afternoon after APM's Marketplace. They were the ones who said what has already been passed is woefully insufficient, and I agree.

> If the quarantine lifts by the end of May and businesses reopen then it will be enough.

> Obviously that's a big if

Show your work. Forecasting does not align with your statements.

[x86_64Ubuntu]

We do know that things will get worse as we've seen how things have tracked in China, Iran and Italy. And if this quarantine lasts till May, I foresee many small businesses won't be around by then.

[rootusrootus]

> I foresee many small businesses won't be around by then

And I wouldn't be surprised if it starts to hit some mid-size businesses as well. A lot of places are getting hit hard right now, and that just flows up the chain. My company hasn't announced any layoffs or cashflow problems, but I can do the math -- most of our customers are relatively small businesses. Pretty quickly their problem becomes our problem.