Approximately 200,000 people will die. All of us will know someone that got sick. Most of us will know someone that died. I think Americans will get over it.
I don't know where these numbers come from. But given a the current 1.1% case-fatality-rate in America (even before hospitals are overwhelmed) and that more than half of the population is estimated to get it, I don't see how it'd be less than 1% * .5 * 350million = 1.75 million people, with or without lockdown.
I suspect politicians are trying to "ease into" the honest numbers, because I guess "a million" sounds like a lot to people.
It's hard to say anything with certainty, but I personally can't find any math that explains how social distancing can reduce that by more than 10%, short of a cure or vaccine being developed within 60 days.
Lockdown requires an eventual vaccine to really save lives, and at minimum universal testing to be effective, to prevent a second wave. Otherwise, once lockdown ends, we go exponential again.
beefalo|5 years ago
mathnovice|5 years ago
slaw|5 years ago
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
mathnovice|5 years ago
vkou|5 years ago
If they don't, a hell of a lot more will.
alexandercrohde|5 years ago
I suspect politicians are trying to "ease into" the honest numbers, because I guess "a million" sounds like a lot to people.
It's hard to say anything with certainty, but I personally can't find any math that explains how social distancing can reduce that by more than 10%, short of a cure or vaccine being developed within 60 days.
Plasma would be the best hope of this.
nomel|5 years ago