[jbermudes]

I'm glad people are realizing that all this social distancing is merely a pause button on the virus. Once we press play on society, exponential growth will happen again and we will have effectively rolled back the clock until we reach herd immunity through things like the OP's suggestion.

At least this next time we'll hopefully have more PPE.

[tilolebo]

It's not a pause button, it's a playback speed button that slows down the contamination.

Remember #FlattenTheCurve.

What is true is that it would take waaaay longer to reach herd immunity this way.

Another thing that people usually get wrong is the her immunity concept: from what I understand, it doesn't mean we ALL need to be infected. We just need to be enough, so the virus can't spread anymore.

[tigershark]

At that R0 herd immunity will be probably achieved when at least 70% of the population is infected. So it’s not all, but we are still speaking of about 5.5 billion people globally...

[roenxi]

Alas, if you do some order of magnitude calculations you might find that that'll take a very long time.

[foobarbecue]

Herd immunity doesn't happen until you have a vaccine.

[akiselev]

The whole idea of herd immunity in this context is fucking nonsense. No self-respecting epidemiologist would even bring it up this early into a pandemic.

Herd immunity is the last resort for the immunocompromised or unvaccinated, not the foundation for public health policy.

[DagAgren]

The point of social distancing is to bring the number of cases down to a point where other measures are possible, such as test-and-trace. Social distancing is step 1, not the whole process.

[Taek]

I'd much rather live in a world where everyone is required to wear masks all the time than live in a world where we are all told to stay home all the time.

I believe it's also well established that any measures taken to slow the spread of a new virus will always result in fewer total deaths, in that sense quarantining is much more effective than just being a pause button.

[hutzlibu]

"where everyone is required to wear masks all the time"

And this is what bothers me with such laws. No it does not make sense to wear masks all the time. (even assumed only outside) When I am running alone in the forest I do not need a mask. While driving a car alone, or with a partner, I do not need a mask. So the law should be, wearing masks all the time in populated public spaces.

"I believe it's also well established that any measures taken to slow the spread of a new virus will always result in fewer total deaths"

And this is only true if you look only isolated at the virus and do not take into account the various big side effects of a lockdown. Because you will get deaths from: suicide, domestic violence, other diseases, because staying home is not really good for the immune system and general health. Also this only takes into account the rich world. In india staying home is also required, but this is a really serious death risk, if your home is a metal barrack in the slums, with no AC, meaning you just get cooked. Before you starve to death, because you have no income anymore.

[grey-area]

This is a false dichotomy. Masks or gloves as worn by ordinary people are nowhere near effective enough to mean lockdowns could end. They're very effective in clinical settings with proper ppe head to toe and procedures for taking them off outside the dirty ward, but there's no way most people can stick to those, nor keep their houses/shops clean enough.

I believe it's also well established that any measures taken to slow the spread of a new virus will always result in fewer total deaths

In the sense that they prevent a healthcare system being overwhelmed yes, in any other sense no, they are very much just a pause button for the spread of the virus, not a cure.

[foobarbecue]

"fewer total deaths" Yes, but not fewer total infections. You save lives by spreading out the infections over time, reducing strain on the healthcare system.

[stOneskull]

Neither please. Hospital facilities available and keeping immune systems up, a big yes, but also we have to accept that people die.

[mrfusion]

How about neither.

[DanBC]

> I'd much rather live in a world where everyone is required to wear masks all the time

A properly fitting mask is uncomfortable. It hurts your nose, it hurts your ears. If you wear spectacles they fog up. People don't tolerate them, and so they fiddle with the mask, taking it off and putting it back, or dropping it under their chin.

Here's what happens when you wear a mask for a couple of shifts at work.

https://twitter.com/gabbyjackson95x/status/12479391789623255...

https://twitter.com/george_kerris/status/1241821041107906560

https://twitter.com/LeaBasra/status/1246467174589517825

https://twitter.com/CorneliaLG/status/1247309904106393608

https://twitter.com/paigeleigh95/status/1247509440405876738

https://twitter.com/gsmarri/status/1241845315587715073

https://twitter.com/molliemariaa/status/1246285482130059267

https://twitter.com/freyja_woolston/status/12472261992120115...

https://twitter.com/johnnynash69/status/1248278245914693639

https://twitter.com/TJGrundy/status/1247771125553065986

https://twitter.com/rosenorth_/status/1247235204957208577

https://twitter.com/erikalouxx/status/1245240263947227136

https://twitter.com/ilkahannah/status/1248395954102759431

https://twitter.com/LeanneThornex/status/1247587759025504256

https://twitter.com/drccr74/status/1247601616548769798

https://twitter.com/lauraworwa/status/1246469150735826944

[coconut_crab]

(I am not a professional, so what I write below might be wrong)

Having more time to develop a vaccine or effective treatments is essential, it doesn't have to be herd immunity. Plus in countries where covid19 rate is low enough, social distancing can be helpful for finding and isolating clusters to suppress the epidemic.

[Guthur]

Of course, there are two ways out of this, herd or vaccine. The above is a variation of herd that may result in less deaths.

The real problem is that waiting until a vaccine is just not even remotely realistic for so many reasons that it's not even funny. We could end up causing more indirect deaths with social isolation than we could possibly imagine, worst case being a huge collapse in the economy results in a large regional or global conflict.

[ajross]

This isn't really correct, and the proof is that most of east asia is relaxing restrictions right now without experiencing another exponential outbreak.

Testing, tracing and quarantine of infected people does work. It requires a bunch of infrastructure that we don't have yet (and in many places still aren't building, which is beyond frustrating). It also requires that the baseline level of the outbreak be small enough that you can catch most of the cases, which thus requires the continued lockdowns until we get back to that level. But it does work.

[danieltillett]

Exactly. There is also everyone in poor countries that is beyond the reach of expensive vaccines.

[robocat]

A country without other options might be more interested in the idea? I imagine that many first world countries would be too worried about the potential liabilities.