[throwaway8291]

My brief analysis tells me that there will be some grinding down in Q2 with a negative peak in Q3. While the virus seems to be "managed", the consequences of millions of people dropping out of the workforce in the first world is not that pronounced. We will see bank failures and maybe dozens of cascades, all leading to the point where someone has to stand up and swallow it.

Solid states go into deep debt today, previously failed states will chew on it for the decade to come.