Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year

[sharkweek]

I also wonder about deployment of said vaccine.

A couple thoughts spring to mind including both your standard, “it takes a while to get everyone in to get one of these,” coupled with a growing distrust of expert medical advice.

A member of my own extended family is still convinced this is a giant conspiracy by [insert flavor of the week here] to [insert flavor of the week here]. I doubt that they get the vaccine no matter how fast it’s available.

I know the goal of vaccines isn’t realistically 100% deployment, but it feels there is going to be some lag here too.

My hunch is a return to normalcy looks more like everyone wearing masks in public for the next few years, with increased distancing in confined spaces (more sweeping WFH policies!) while we wait for adoption of the vaccine.

[acdha]

A big factor is going to be how effective the vaccine is and what R0 will end up being. One of the key factors in determining the percentage of the population which needs to be vaccination is how quickly it spreads and this is definitely not on the favorable side of that range.

[pmoriarty]

"I doubt that they get the vaccine no matter how fast it’s available."

A lot of anti-vaxxers may start begging for or even insisting on getting the vaccine once they see enough unvaccinated people around them dropping like flies.

[guscost]

Never gonna happen. I could be a good sport for another month, since they’re asking nicely. Beyond that, the risk from creeping fascism quickly outpaces the risk from any disease that fits these observations, and I don’t care if you believe it or not. Probably half of the country won’t put up with a shutdown for even that long.

[ornornor]

I don’t think we’d stay locked down for so long. Even with the world on lockdown, the virus still spreads. Eventually I’d think we’d reach the 60–70% infected figure which is said to be enough for herd immunity. At that point and even without a vaccine it’s probably be safe to lift most or all restrictions while we’re looking for a vaccine. As I understand it the lockdowns are to avoid an unmanageable peak in hospital use, not to avoid most people getting the virus.

I wonder if China will strictly prohibit the hunting and eating of wild animals as a result from this outbreak and the considerable international pressure, or if it’ll keep going.

[seibelj]

I still wish they would recommend old and immunocompromised to stay locked up and let the young and fit out. It’s the only way out of the situation.

[lnreddy]

I'm alarmed at the glee with which Americans are giving up their constitutional rights and calling for more restrictions. America is not Asia, or Europe. This is a frontier nation, and we must keep it that way.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

[war1025]

We don't need a vaccine specifically. We need a treatment of one form or another that drops severity / mortality to acceptable levels. A vaccine is one option, but far from the only.

[kyriakos]

Exactly this , vaccination is a long term solution, right now we just need to turn a deadly disease into a manageable one.

[trevyn]

Why coronavirus vaccine public availability in the US could take way longer than a year.

Not everybody cares about formal clinical trials, especially when it affects their bottom line. The global regulatory perspective is not even mentioned in the article.

[tim58]

In 1976 we rushed a vaccine without adequate safety tests (formal clinical trials) and more people were hurt by the unsafe vaccine than would have been sick without the vaccine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak

[ranDOMscripts]

HN hive mind: At what point are there sufficient numbers of survivors to establish herd immunity and get some semblance of normalcy?

[DoreenMichele]

I think we need to shoot for "a new normal" where better cultural germ control practices are a more normal part of the world.

In which case, we don't need to shoot for herd immunity. We just need to shoot for "Hey, stupid, don't do stuff like blow your nose at the restaurant table or conference table, good god."

[T-A]

The threshold is 1 - 1 / R_0 [1]. Using the commonly quoted R_0 ~ 2.5, that's 60%. The highest estimate I've seen is R_0 ~ 5.7 [2], in which case more than 80% of the population would need to be immune.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics

[2] https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

[adrianN]

At about 60-80% immunity you gain herd immunity and the expected infection chain length is less than 2.

[DanBC]

The people talking about herd immunity are talking about 60% to 70% of the population having had, and survived, covid-19.

The trouble is how to achieve that without killing 10% of everyone over 50, or anyone with comorbidities.

[watwut]

I remember reading 70%.

[ezoe]

Even if the vaccine is available now, it took more than a year to mass-produce it and distribute to everyone in the world.

[Noumenon72]

English does have a subjunctive mood for counterfactuals like this, to keep people from thinking that you mean the vaccine actually is available or was mass-produced in the past. The sentence would be more grammatical like this:

"Even if the vaccine were available now, it would take more than a year to mass-produce it..."

[adrianN]

It would be a good start if we vaccinated high risk groups. They account for almost all the severe cases.

[CamperBob2]

That was one surreal thread, if you're talking about the recent AMA with Gates. Why he decided to throw a steak into a room full of rabid pit bulls, I can't imagine.

[aaron695]

This was talked about and explained in January.

What we need to be discussing is why we are still discussing it.

There may never be a vaccine. Anyone who says 'until a vaccine' or 'when a vaccine' is not worth talking to.

[balola]

Basically every country in the world is waiting for it, you can't realistically expect the virus to die down itself now that it's reached every country.