[Munky-Necan]

I want to start by saying, I appreciate your curiosity :)

I think my point above was talking about COVID. The specific example was where I was describing how at scale COVID was going to be a massive problem and have an increasing case fatality ratio as the virus spread. The reason for that is because ~19% of people, I'm probably out of date here and frankly don't feel like looking at Uptodate, go into ARDS. ARDS usually requires high flow oxygen therapy or mechanical ventilation. High flow oxygen essentially means you're hospitalized on a standard medicine floor costing ~$5k per night whereas mechanical ventilation is $10k with crucial nurses managing. A tertiary care hospital in your local probably has between 50-200 ICU beds. Rural hospitals will have 10-30.

Now the the disconnect here is with the statistics. Early estimates were putting COVID at 2-4% CFR because when you have practically unlimited resources you can save the overwhelming majority of patients. But as incident rate increases those supplies become saturated. ARDS is an intense symptomology to treat, this isn't just a cold and it is a tonne of resources. Also, the recovery times from pneumonia that leads to ARDS is usually measured in the months from initial hospitalization. Then on top of all of this COVID has a reproducibility number of 2.5-2.7, but now we're thinking it's actually around 3. Influenza is ~1.3 for reference.

So the key points of why I was afraid: 1) ARDS is life threatening 2) ARDS requires intense nursing/intensivist (ICU doc) care 3) ARDS takes months to recover from 4) COVID has a crazy reproducibility number

Here on Hacker News there are many mathematicians and statisticians who have done centuries of work, so I was told that making an assumption this early was a fools errand because the numbers were not painting the picture that I was describing: a very bad pandemic. I think I was told that because the consequences of a viral pneumonia are not common knowledge and there is a lack understanding of what entails a viral pneumonia. But the main crux of my argument was that the CFR was going to rise from the reported 2-4% all the way up to 5-10% based on the percentage of complications that were occurring. In Wuhan the CFR is 5.9% and there's still 2-3k people on ventilators months later (on top of the fact that in the American medical community there's accusations of a manipulation of those numbers....). The CFR in Italy and France at ~10% at the moment, if not higher.

I hope this explains the entire crux of what my point was earlier. I didn't want to get into too many specifics so as not to offend anyone.