[hedgew]

I wouldn't place too much trust in the Finnish IFR estimate. Their IFR estimate a month ago was 0.05% - 0.1%. At the time there was no data to support that, and it turns out that they had simply taken their estimates from a ten year old pandemic preparedness plan, which was designed for an influenza pandemic.

It was basically the same mistake UK did. Now they have very slowly begun to adjust away from the misleading path they originally set on.

The Finnish national health organization has been subject to severe budget cuts for the past ten years. They are still saying that masks do more harm than good, and that it's absolutely impossible to stop the virus, despite South-Korea having done so for almost 50 days already.

[butler14]

> It was basically the same mistake UK did. Now they have very slowly begun to adjust away from the misleading path they originally set on.

How so?

I don't see any adjustment.

The UK strategy was to not pull the trigger on lock down too early, and then to flatten the curve in a way that fills our front line health service's capacity without overstretching it.

All while increasing numbers of beds, ventilators and distributing PPE as widely as possible.

That's broadly what's happened.

What DIDN'T happen is... well... more or less anything proactively in February. But we're certainly not alone there.

[nabla9]

Their updated estimate is similar to ones from Iceland (mass testing) and others. More people than expected go trough the disease without symptoms. At least 50%.

The math goes as follows:

- 60% need to be infected for herd immunity.

- At least 50% of infected show no symptoms.

- CFR is 0.7%.

0.6×0.5×0.007 = 0.002

(This math assumes that everyone without symptoms is a diagnosed case, so overestimte)

[grey-area]

Once you have a certain number of infected it would take a long time (months or years) to stop it without a vaccine.