top | item 23052883

(no title)

poontang1 | 5 years ago

The massive and steady increase in home value would suggest a bubble, no?

discuss

order

loeg|5 years ago

No — a bubble is "a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future."[1]

Home value increases have not been particularly steady. And to the extent there is a sustained effect, it is in part due to long-standing government priority of individual home ownership, implemented in a policy of subsidizing home ownership, and in part due to concentration of jobs and people in cities as part of a labor shift.

Edit: almost_unusual makes a good remark that some locales are probably in bubbles and others not; it's something specific to any given region rather than some sweeping statement about the national market.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

bsanr|5 years ago

>No — a bubble is "a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future."

"AirBNB or something like it will exist in 2 years."

"Monetary policy will not begin to dry up the glut of cash which has objectively ballooned asset prices since 2008."

"Covid will not permanently change certain habits which would otherwise cause a devaluation of property in major cities."

"Some major economic entity will not collapse in the next 2 years."

>it is in part due to long-standing government priority of individual home ownership

This strikes me as a commonly-bandied, well-debunked talking point.

almost_usual|5 years ago

I wouldn’t be surprised if some markets were in bubbles and others weren’t.

I think there is a lot of speculation about the Bay Area and SF being in a bubble due to high prices. The demand is still there though and it’s actually grown quite a bit in recent weeks ( SF specifically ).

Cities with a lot of service and factory workers will see a larger correction.

arcticbull|5 years ago

The Bay Area isn’t in a bubble either, it’s a market whose pricing dynamics are determined by constant strong demand due to economic prospects combined with city councils artificially constraining supply to the benefit of landowners.

loeg|5 years ago

This is a more nuanced take and I totally agree. Everything about housing markets is very local.

arcticbull|5 years ago

Nope, on average in the United States home price per square foot is the same in constant dollar terms (give or take) as it was in the 70’s - since then the average size of an American home has gone up, however.

maxerickson|5 years ago

Larger buildings and new technology should both put downward pressure on price per square foot.