Actual title: Pandemics Change Cities:
Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism
in Germany, 1918-1933
Specifically, the paper states:
> In this section, we show that the 1932 and 1933 vote share won by extremists was related to influenza
mortality of a decade earlier. This mortality was positively associated with right-wing extremist vote
shares, such as the national socialists, and negatively (though insignificantly) with the share won by
left-leaning extremists.
So, the 1918 pandemic did not lead to just extremism; it led to right wing extremism. (I'd suggest changing the title to reflect this, if possible.) This is a danger that we are facing right now in the US.
How do they disentangle that from losing the great war, and the crippling treaty + reparations that destroyed their economy and led to massive inflation, unemployment and starvation?
> So, the 1918 pandemic did not lead to just extremism; it led to right wing extremism. (I'd suggest changing the title to reflect this, if possible.) This is a danger that we are facing right now in the US.
Are we? Show me some actual evidence.
Yes, there are some similarities between our situation and 1918. But there are massive differences. We should certainly observe the situation to see if the pandemic causes people to radicalize, but it's rather alarmist to conclude that it is already happening, based solely on this.
how does this possibly have any accuracy, it doesn't even mention the treaty of versailles.
This is despite the the treaty of versailles having large and well understood economic impact and crushing costs of that treaty. Those costs and consequences are largely understood to have driven the economy into the ground.
Wasn't the spending dip because of war reparations? That the austerity caused right wing extremism is not in doubt. But this paper seems to ignore what caused the austerity.
Edit: after reviewing some charts, I don't think causality has been established. The high influenza mortality was probably a result of pre-existing economic and political inequalities.
Finding out what countries have been particularly stricken by the pandemic and have had austerity measures imposed on them recently on account of "paying one's debts", very much like Germany's situation in the 30s, is left as an exercise for the reader.
pmiller2|5 years ago
Specifically, the paper states:
> In this section, we show that the 1932 and 1933 vote share won by extremists was related to influenza mortality of a decade earlier. This mortality was positively associated with right-wing extremist vote shares, such as the national socialists, and negatively (though insignificantly) with the share won by left-leaning extremists.
So, the 1918 pandemic did not lead to just extremism; it led to right wing extremism. (I'd suggest changing the title to reflect this, if possible.) This is a danger that we are facing right now in the US.
kstenerud|5 years ago
kerkeslager|5 years ago
Are we? Show me some actual evidence.
Yes, there are some similarities between our situation and 1918. But there are massive differences. We should certainly observe the situation to see if the pandemic causes people to radicalize, but it's rather alarmist to conclude that it is already happening, based solely on this.
olliej|5 years ago
This is despite the the treaty of versailles having large and well understood economic impact and crushing costs of that treaty. Those costs and consequences are largely understood to have driven the economy into the ground.
unknown|5 years ago
[deleted]
satya71|5 years ago
Edit: after reviewing some charts, I don't think causality has been established. The high influenza mortality was probably a result of pre-existing economic and political inequalities.
throwaway3999|5 years ago
jeegsy|5 years ago