[brianchu]

The explanation is very simple. The pandemic is not nearly as bad as people thought it would be in March.

Models were predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths in the USA over the next few months, with lockdown. Many people were predicting hospitals would be widely overrun in New York City, parts of California, etc (again, with lockdown). These models and predictions, of course, were wrong.

Printing money and stimulus should have been expected (given the government's response in 2008) and therefore priced in, at least in theory. If we actually had massive numbers of bodies piling up outside hospitals in all major US cities, no amount of money printing would have propped up the markets.

[will_walker]

We are going to cross that 100k death toll by June, and there will be an acceleration in 2-4 weeks as we see the effects of reopening efforts on transmission rates. [1]

Brooklyn funeral homes have trailers full of bodies waiting for burial. Just because it’s not happening where you can see it doesn’t mean it’s not happening. [2]

1. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?ex_cid...

2. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/nyre...

[brianchu]

Some models were predicting multiple hundreds of thousands of deaths, with lockdown. The Imperial College model was predicting 1 million deaths, with lockdown. I completely agree cases will rise as places begin reopening. But whatever the outcome it will be with reopening - still better than what the market expected in March.

Yes, NYC was the only place in America where the system was close to overrun and some hospitals actually were overrun, I'm not disputing that.