The article takes a long time to essentially get around to saying this:
> But covid-19 and the extreme social-distancing measures used to combat it pose a new and more profound danger to the capital
I feel that during lockdown a fair few people have turned mildly insane - they seem to honestly believe that we're going to stand very far apart from other humans for the rest of time.
It's just not the case. I'll be in the pub by the end of the year.
Considering that the virus is here to stay for a few years at least, how can we blame them for thinking this way? Lifting the lockdown is not gonna make the virus disappear.
I just don’t think that people are going to quarantine any longer. Almost no matter how bad it gets, I think people care about social interaction above almost all else even their own safety.
Now that said: I’m in a bar that is only outdoors, it’s sunny, there is a breeze, and the closest person is 15 feet away. Everybody is wearing a mask who isn’t eating, everything is getting washed and sanitized.
People will find a way to keep doing this, and it isn’t going to be VR or zoom calls. It’s going to be real in person experiences where you can see other people’s faces.
I mean, you might be, but it may not be the pub as you know it. The current Irish plan calls for reopening of pubs in phase 5 (last phase) in late August (I don't think the UK has a concrete plan on this, but it'll likely be similar enough). But it will be pubs with social distancing.
EDIT: Looks like UK pubs may be allowed reopen in July, but with social distancing and table service. So, not very pub-like, then.
Does this mean that you think the risk of serious morbidity or mortality is overestimated, or because you think at some point the reduction in social interaction is worse than the pandemic itself?
I’d like to believe you’re right about the end of the year, personally I don’t think things will be “normal” for a bit longer. But yeah, the “rest of time” is a very long time, and these theories forget how quickly we adapted to this in the first place. It’s reversible.
You maybe, but how many others will? 10-20% less people in pubs, fewer tourists visiting west end shows, banks and other companies using work from home, could have a huge knock on effect on other businesses, property and taxes.
I can tell you how it is in Copenhagen (which has lifted many restrictions within the last two weeks); there are people at the pubs, at the high street, and in the metro. It is not crowded as it used to be and it is a noticeable younger crowd. But people do come back.
Some London pubs have already figured out that they can legally sell take away beers in plastic cups. So while you can't sit down inside the pub, everyone stands around in the street outside the pub drinking their "take away" beer.
You may be in a pub by the end of the year, but you won't be in a pub at the end of the year, because at that point we'll locked down in the midst of a second wave of coronavirus, with some pent up seasonal flu thrown in for good measure.
It’s just normal to go insane when isolated from the world. Only the newer generation that lives digital lives. This lockdown forced me to open social media accounts and that only made thing worse. I am glad that I have so many hobbies to dive or else I would have gone insane.
Not sure about 'by the end of the year' but agree with the basic sentiment. The key of course is whether or not the virus can mutate to avoid the immunity provided by antibodies to the current strain.
What I've been reading so far, the genetic analysis of its mutations[1] has not suggested that it will.
That isn't to say that it won't evolve into something more like the common cold, just that the features that make it SARS appear to me to be locked into specific genetic elements of the current virus (and MERS and SARS-Covid-1).
If this trend continues, then the vaccines developed will provide immunity for people and prevent further widespread outbreaks. Covid-19 will become "just like the flu" in that you get a shot for it (possibly only 1 or 2), and your chances of catching it become low enough that even if you are exposed to someone with it, your immune system will kill it.
At which point the world goes back pretty much to exactly the way it was before, except that we have experienced a worldwide pandemic in "living memory" and there will be a crap ton of sovereign debt which is going to drag on the various economies of the world for a decade at least.
Things to watch for are the results of vaccine trials, and follow the genetic tracking with respect to the virus' use of its 'spike' to infect cells. Good results in vaccines and no change in the virus without also making it just a regular cold virus, and the world goes on.
Until there is either a vaccine that I have taken, or a complete eradication of the COVID-19 in London; then "the pub" or any other voluntary gathering of strangers in close quarters is an unnecessary risk that I will not be taking.
That is the reality of our situation. You have to face up to it, disbelieving it does not help anyone.
You need to check with an app before you can get within 6 feet of a stranger. You want to make physical contact, that's going to be $20/months for 3 checks a month. Each person you get close to will increase your chance of getting hauled off to contact tracing quarantine. You'll also need a properly isolated location for 9 months if you want to get your wife pregnant. Population control advocates will be ecstatic.
>>> poor parts of the Midlands and north of England would get lots of infrastructure investment, helping them to close the productivity gap with London. The country would be “levelled up”.
By "infrastructure" I guess they mean improvements to intercity rail connections, namely the high speed rail. I don't see those as localized improvements. Moreover they seem geared to decreasing commute times in/out of london (and a couple other of the largest cities). The net result is to allow rich londoners to live and commute from further afield. That isn't a move away from "peak capital", it's doubling down on that capital by further extending its influence, expanding the hinterlands on which it relies.
Sorry, no. High speed rail's main benefit is to increase capacity on existing lines by removing fast trains from the mix. Currently big gaps have to be left in front of the fast trains to allow them to run. The reduction in travel time is a secondary benefit.
I was unaware of this until I recently discovered Gareth Dennis on twitter, who is doing a fantastic job of making up for HS2 ltd's appallingly lacking public engagement "strategy".
HSR was never about commuting, capacity is too low, the journey time improvements are modest and tickets will always be priced to discourage commuting. It's a bone to throw to those people who currently travel longer distances to London, who are currently using slower rail, driving or flying. This group includes all the MPs from north of Birmingham, as well lots of rich Tory voters, and it was thought that it would carry the same appeal as the channel tunnel does for Londoners - reduced journey time and hassle for very occasional trips. They missed several real opportunities with it though - proper connection with the existing HSR to Europe would have played into the eco / flight shaming crowd, but it didn't fit the Brexit message. Linking it to a program of speed improvements on connecting commuter rail would have been a cheaper vote winner that would have boosted the value of HSR2 too. The whole project was a giant misguided waste of our money even before covid19 made public transit irrelevant, and with the rise of self-driving and environmentally friendlier cars only a crazy stubborn government would place a multi-billion pound on continuing HSR2.
I have no intention to go to the pub or travel abroad, especially with a potential two week quarantine. I have seriously ill early March and it wasn't fun at all. I am sure the pubs or the restaurants will not miss me
[+] [-] esotericn|5 years ago|reply
> But covid-19 and the extreme social-distancing measures used to combat it pose a new and more profound danger to the capital
I feel that during lockdown a fair few people have turned mildly insane - they seem to honestly believe that we're going to stand very far apart from other humans for the rest of time.
It's just not the case. I'll be in the pub by the end of the year.
[+] [-] kinkrtyavimoodh|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] blhack|5 years ago|reply
I just don’t think that people are going to quarantine any longer. Almost no matter how bad it gets, I think people care about social interaction above almost all else even their own safety.
Now that said: I’m in a bar that is only outdoors, it’s sunny, there is a breeze, and the closest person is 15 feet away. Everybody is wearing a mask who isn’t eating, everything is getting washed and sanitized.
People will find a way to keep doing this, and it isn’t going to be VR or zoom calls. It’s going to be real in person experiences where you can see other people’s faces.
[+] [-] rsynnott|5 years ago|reply
I mean, you might be, but it may not be the pub as you know it. The current Irish plan calls for reopening of pubs in phase 5 (last phase) in late August (I don't think the UK has a concrete plan on this, but it'll likely be similar enough). But it will be pubs with social distancing.
EDIT: Looks like UK pubs may be allowed reopen in July, but with social distancing and table service. So, not very pub-like, then.
[+] [-] throwphoton|5 years ago|reply
Does this mean that you think the risk of serious morbidity or mortality is overestimated, or because you think at some point the reduction in social interaction is worse than the pandemic itself?
[+] [-] SirHound|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] helsinkiandrew|5 years ago|reply
You maybe, but how many others will? 10-20% less people in pubs, fewer tourists visiting west end shows, banks and other companies using work from home, could have a huge knock on effect on other businesses, property and taxes.
[+] [-] chvid|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Reason077|5 years ago|reply
Some London pubs have already figured out that they can legally sell take away beers in plastic cups. So while you can't sit down inside the pub, everyone stands around in the street outside the pub drinking their "take away" beer.
[+] [-] GuiA|5 years ago|reply
"The war will be over by Christmas."
[+] [-] hanoz|5 years ago|reply
You may be in a pub by the end of the year, but you won't be in a pub at the end of the year, because at that point we'll locked down in the midst of a second wave of coronavirus, with some pent up seasonal flu thrown in for good measure.
[+] [-] lanevorockz|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ChuckMcM|5 years ago|reply
What I've been reading so far, the genetic analysis of its mutations[1] has not suggested that it will.
That isn't to say that it won't evolve into something more like the common cold, just that the features that make it SARS appear to me to be locked into specific genetic elements of the current virus (and MERS and SARS-Covid-1).
If this trend continues, then the vaccines developed will provide immunity for people and prevent further widespread outbreaks. Covid-19 will become "just like the flu" in that you get a shot for it (possibly only 1 or 2), and your chances of catching it become low enough that even if you are exposed to someone with it, your immune system will kill it.
At which point the world goes back pretty much to exactly the way it was before, except that we have experienced a worldwide pandemic in "living memory" and there will be a crap ton of sovereign debt which is going to drag on the various economies of the world for a decade at least.
Things to watch for are the results of vaccine trials, and follow the genetic tracking with respect to the virus' use of its 'spike' to infect cells. Good results in vaccines and no change in the virus without also making it just a regular cold virus, and the world goes on.
[1] https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9241
[+] [-] cylinder|5 years ago|reply
That said, I was always a germophobe and always practiced social distancing on the train whenever I could so I support this.
[+] [-] unknown|5 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] SideburnsOfDoom|5 years ago|reply
Until there is either a vaccine that I have taken, or a complete eradication of the COVID-19 in London; then "the pub" or any other voluntary gathering of strangers in close quarters is an unnecessary risk that I will not be taking.
That is the reality of our situation. You have to face up to it, disbelieving it does not help anyone.
[+] [-] unknown|5 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] mrmonkeyman|5 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] narrator|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jxub|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sandworm101|5 years ago|reply
By "infrastructure" I guess they mean improvements to intercity rail connections, namely the high speed rail. I don't see those as localized improvements. Moreover they seem geared to decreasing commute times in/out of london (and a couple other of the largest cities). The net result is to allow rich londoners to live and commute from further afield. That isn't a move away from "peak capital", it's doubling down on that capital by further extending its influence, expanding the hinterlands on which it relies.
[+] [-] ENIanDEM|5 years ago|reply
I was unaware of this until I recently discovered Gareth Dennis on twitter, who is doing a fantastic job of making up for HS2 ltd's appallingly lacking public engagement "strategy".
[+] [-] akadruid1|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rjsw|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] adav|5 years ago|reply
Source: The traffic jams outside my front door are back and the lockdown isn’t even lifted yet.
[+] [-] globular-toast|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wdb|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] wwqrd|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] djohnston|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] neonate|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ur-whale|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] organian|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] saberience|5 years ago|reply