I feel like you could just as easily say "Simple. As soon as Google changes their cut to 20% for Android-exclusive apps, developers will move to that store to make more money. Users will follow". They won't. Users won't leave the walled garden, just as people on Android didn't leave it for Fortnite (the most popular game in the world at the time). The App Store comes with the phone and is safe, has customer support and nearly no malware. Any other App Store would require multiple extra steps to install, along with a bunch of "please don't" prompts that Apple would build in to make sure that the user knows what's happening (just like what happens on macOS with unsigned software). It would end up being too confusing for the masses, and they'd just find an alternative that was willing to sit in the App Store (or the nightmare, not use the app at all and go unhappy).Amazon already tried this exact thing on Android, where the barriers are a lot lower. They've never had success with their app store outside of their first-party devices. Why? Because it's too dang hard, and I'm willing to pay an extra buck for Minecraft if I don't have to track it down in another app and worry about malware coming through the wall.
I'm all for a switch to install unsigned software, but only for development stuff. The App Store serves as a good barrier for 99% of users who just need to turn on their phone and use the darn app. The other 1% just need Apple to put a hidden switch to disable the protections ala csrutil in macOS and we'll be fine.
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