1.6% death rate is not conservative or based in reality. The CDC's best estimate for the IFR, currently, is 0.65% (almost 3x less.) As a population average, even 0.65% doesn't paint an accurate picture. We know deaths are disproportionally in the elderly and those with serious pre-existing conditions.
A better plan would be to do what was possible to protect at-risk populations, but not make the Faustian bargain we did to destroy the economy.
>That kind of death rate would tank the economy far worse than a temporary shutdown.
That's completely false. Most of those deaths would be people who aren't working anyway (retirees). The 1918 flu killed way more people, but the economic impact was far less, because there were no lockdowns. Sweden had almost 6000 deaths, but its economy is still doing way better than most countries in Europe (France, Italy, England..).
king_magic|5 years ago
Even with a conservative 1.6% death rate, if only a million people in your county contracted COVID, you could still expect 16,000 people to die.
That kind of death rate would tank the economy far worse than a temporary shutdown.
briHass|5 years ago
A better plan would be to do what was possible to protect at-risk populations, but not make the Faustian bargain we did to destroy the economy.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
logicchains|5 years ago
That's completely false. Most of those deaths would be people who aren't working anyway (retirees). The 1918 flu killed way more people, but the economic impact was far less, because there were no lockdowns. Sweden had almost 6000 deaths, but its economy is still doing way better than most countries in Europe (France, Italy, England..).