I adore that apparently Steve Jobs and Wozniak wrote Breakout while they were at Atari.
I absolutely adored that game as a child.
As an aside, this article was wonderful and if you haven't already done so, you should read it right now. (I especially liked the why you should get a computer argument at the end).
Stated like this this assertion is unprovable and unfalsifiable. Another person could state that luck is too overrated, who is right, who is wrong, and how do you decide?
In a controlled setup though, like backgammon or poker, luck is definitely overrated. Just try to play a single game of backgammon with a professional player, and see if you stand a chance. You can play 100 games, and without fail you would lose all of them.
So, how can a professional player of a game of chance consistently win? By maximizing the win when they get a lucky roll, and minimizing the loss when they get an unlucky one. In the long run the number of lucky rolls is roughly equal with the number of unlucky rolls, but they will manage to get a positive expected value.
Maybe real life is similar to a game of chance. Maybe not? I don't know for sure. But my hunch is this: both Mark Zuckerberg and I were faced with a long string of random events in our life. Many, many, many. After each such event, we both had a number of ways to respond. Somehow Zuckerberg got richer pretty much every day of his adult life, and he now sits at #3 at the top of the world. I, on the other hand, made whatever choices I made and sit currently at #1e9 or #2e9 (not sure). I can think that Zuckerberg has been dealt a luckier hand in life, or I can think he was much better at playing what he was dealt than me. Nobody will ever know for sure. But my personal belief is that he was a more skillful player than me.
When you ask how someone became a manager (especially if they are bad), a lot of it was luck. I'm not discounting that the worked hard to earn it, but a lot of people work hard but are unlucky. I count myself in the unlucky pile.
A few months ago I heard about the concept "return on luck". It seems to me that Apple had the highest return on the luck they had of any of their contemporaries, with the possible exception of Microsoft.
[+] [-] disgruntledphd2|5 years ago|reply
I absolutely adored that game as a child.
As an aside, this article was wonderful and if you haven't already done so, you should read it right now. (I especially liked the why you should get a computer argument at the end).
[+] [-] pstuart|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lonelygirl15a|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fendy3002|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] credit_guy|5 years ago|reply
In a controlled setup though, like backgammon or poker, luck is definitely overrated. Just try to play a single game of backgammon with a professional player, and see if you stand a chance. You can play 100 games, and without fail you would lose all of them.
So, how can a professional player of a game of chance consistently win? By maximizing the win when they get a lucky roll, and minimizing the loss when they get an unlucky one. In the long run the number of lucky rolls is roughly equal with the number of unlucky rolls, but they will manage to get a positive expected value.
Maybe real life is similar to a game of chance. Maybe not? I don't know for sure. But my hunch is this: both Mark Zuckerberg and I were faced with a long string of random events in our life. Many, many, many. After each such event, we both had a number of ways to respond. Somehow Zuckerberg got richer pretty much every day of his adult life, and he now sits at #3 at the top of the world. I, on the other hand, made whatever choices I made and sit currently at #1e9 or #2e9 (not sure). I can think that Zuckerberg has been dealt a luckier hand in life, or I can think he was much better at playing what he was dealt than me. Nobody will ever know for sure. But my personal belief is that he was a more skillful player than me.
[+] [-] apple4ever|5 years ago|reply
When you ask how someone became a manager (especially if they are bad), a lot of it was luck. I'm not discounting that the worked hard to earn it, but a lot of people work hard but are unlucky. I count myself in the unlucky pile.
[+] [-] MaysonL|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] petra|5 years ago|reply
That's one of the biggest business mistakes ever.So that's a huge amount of luck.
So I'm not sure Microsoft is so unique with regards to "return on luck".
[+] [-] api|5 years ago|reply
Too bad it's gone full circle. The cloud is the new mainframe.
[+] [-] everybodyknows|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] shadowprofile77|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|5 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] unknown|5 years ago|reply
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