I live in Manhattan and stayed put throughout the pandemic. Compared to months ago, NYC is doing quite well, culturally at least. Yesterday I took a walk from midtown to FiDi and back. Restaurants were open, diners were enjoying outdoor seating, families were out and about, stores were open, bikers were biking, and it really felt like something was back to some semblance of "normal." Not to mention that compared to the rest of the country, it feels like we've passed the worst of the pandemic storm.
There is a whole other financial issue affecting the city right now, however. Tax income is going to drop off a cliff, many stores have closed, and some percentage of wealthy people may leave, which will force the government to confront its sky-high spending and investments in social programs.
NYC will certainly look different, and may take several years to fully recover, but I think declaring it dead at the height of a globe-altering pandemic is premature.
There is also this issue of skyrocketing violent crime that many people are choosing to ignore. As an older person who lived through the "bad old days" of NYC in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s what's happening today is, unfortunately, very reminiscent. The pandemic aside, the utter and total leadership failures of Deblasio and the City Council have led us to where we are. The NYC that many people have come to know and enjoy for the last 25 years is sliding back into a very different kind of city, with our "leaders" doing absolutely nothing to address the issue.
Landlord raised the rent? Seems strange in a city where rents are down 10 to 20 percent and everyone is asking for concessions. Maybe you should renegotiate.
Rents are down, so that will eventually attract people back. A supply and demand problem in the classic case.
Office buildings can be converted to housing in the short run.
In the long run, in-person offices will probably beat distributed teams in many industries, like finance where small margins produce results. Especially since Goldman Sachs probably likes to discuss strategic plans like destabilizing national economies in private and in person.
Near-tautological cycles of real estate appreciation in high demand urban centers have prevented addressing major glaring problems, so a correction to the demand curve and valuations may enable zoning reform in order to get people back to the city.
Finally: why would anyone move to Phoenix with looming global warming?
> Office buildings can be converted to housing in the short run.
This is just not feasible in the short run due to huge costs of extra plumbing and other infrastructure changes. Hotel to housing conversions are much cheaper.
1. Manhattan is not NYC. There are five, count them, five boroughs. Didn’t Johnny T on Glove and Boots teach you numbskulls nothin’? Manhattan is one borough. The author would probably wet his pants if he stepped into Brooklyn, and require a full adult diaper if he found himself on Staten Island. (Exaggeration for humorous effect, but he should know better.)
2. The “how dare you kick my dog, he’s great" posts that show up when NYC is disparaged are par for the course here. They show an admirable love and loyalty for Manhattan and, who knows, they may have read about the Bronx in a book somewhere. There will always be a Manhattan unless they tow it out to sea and sink it. (Imagine the Environmental Impact Statement for that project.) Will the Manhattan of the mid and late 1900s still be around? Paris still thrives, but does the Paris of the 1920s still exist?
3. Waiting for the inevitable dumping on New Jersey that happens when NYC starts getting insecure...
You see this kind of reactionary pearl-clutching every day of the history of the human race. NYC will change, as will everywhere on Earth, it is not dead.
NYC has taxed the wealthy very aggressively to pay for cultural entertainment (to keep the wealthy) and social services that help reelect the politicians who set up this system. Clearly there will be changes coming.
[+] [-] cddotdotslash|5 years ago|reply
There is a whole other financial issue affecting the city right now, however. Tax income is going to drop off a cliff, many stores have closed, and some percentage of wealthy people may leave, which will force the government to confront its sky-high spending and investments in social programs.
NYC will certainly look different, and may take several years to fully recover, but I think declaring it dead at the height of a globe-altering pandemic is premature.
[+] [-] StanislavPetrov|5 years ago|reply
https://gothamist.com/news/49-people-shot-72-hours-wave-gun-...
[+] [-] greghausheer|5 years ago|reply
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-man-behind-bitcoin-geniu...
I wouldn't take anything he says seriously. There's probably a buck in it for him to flip to write something like this.
[+] [-] brooklyndude|5 years ago|reply
I went from phone call to CT Scan in 17 mins at NYP hospital.
Museums open August 24.
Whole Food delivers to my front door. Your local herb friend probably does too. And how many Apple Stores?
Got my new NYC lease. Landlord raised the rent. Guess he’s not buying the doom and gloom?
NYC will do just fine. We’ll figure it out.
:-)
[+] [-] hansvm|5 years ago|reply
He doesn't think you buy the doom and gloom anyway. You did pay after all.
[+] [-] anonu|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] AtlasBarfed|5 years ago|reply
Office buildings can be converted to housing in the short run.
In the long run, in-person offices will probably beat distributed teams in many industries, like finance where small margins produce results. Especially since Goldman Sachs probably likes to discuss strategic plans like destabilizing national economies in private and in person.
Near-tautological cycles of real estate appreciation in high demand urban centers have prevented addressing major glaring problems, so a correction to the demand curve and valuations may enable zoning reform in order to get people back to the city.
Finally: why would anyone move to Phoenix with looming global warming?
[+] [-] jgalt212|5 years ago|reply
This is just not feasible in the short run due to huge costs of extra plumbing and other infrastructure changes. Hotel to housing conversions are much cheaper.
[+] [-] dgudkov|5 years ago|reply
Rents themselves don't attract people. Jobs do. Many jobs now don't require people to be physically present in a large city.
[+] [-] jmeister|5 years ago|reply
Early 00s was “9/11 is an inside job”.
10s was “Goldman is a vampire”.
In 2020 it’s “Hollywood perverts and the CIA control the culture and program the people”.
[+] [-] onecommentman|5 years ago|reply
1. Manhattan is not NYC. There are five, count them, five boroughs. Didn’t Johnny T on Glove and Boots teach you numbskulls nothin’? Manhattan is one borough. The author would probably wet his pants if he stepped into Brooklyn, and require a full adult diaper if he found himself on Staten Island. (Exaggeration for humorous effect, but he should know better.)
2. The “how dare you kick my dog, he’s great" posts that show up when NYC is disparaged are par for the course here. They show an admirable love and loyalty for Manhattan and, who knows, they may have read about the Bronx in a book somewhere. There will always be a Manhattan unless they tow it out to sea and sink it. (Imagine the Environmental Impact Statement for that project.) Will the Manhattan of the mid and late 1900s still be around? Paris still thrives, but does the Paris of the 1920s still exist?
3. Waiting for the inevitable dumping on New Jersey that happens when NYC starts getting insecure...
[+] [-] PhantomGremlin|5 years ago|reply
I suppose it's different now, parts of Brooklyn might matter.
inevitable dumping on New Jersey
Mr. Richard Feder of Fort Lee, New Jersey, is that you? Roseanne Roseannadanna says "you belong in New Jersey".
[+] [-] CydeWeys|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cvhashim|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] infoaddicted|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bobosha|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] anonu|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kuang_eleven|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gridlockd|5 years ago|reply
My hunch is yes, because it is still a good brand.
[+] [-] gbronner|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jshaqaw|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] markrages|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Jaruzel|5 years ago|reply
Erm...? I think London, Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo would disagree.
I stopped reading at that point tbh.
[+] [-] gridlockd|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|5 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] scroogeydop|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] brooklyndude|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] 3327|5 years ago|reply
I try to never hire defeatists into my companies and screen for them.
the pendelum will swing back and corporates will see that culture and office also matters.
[+] [-] gridlockd|5 years ago|reply
History is rife with examples.