My pet theory (which is not intended to be taken too seriously) is that it is indeed a discarded light sail, and that light sail in particular was used to transport a Von Neumann probe which detached at some point after the object entered our solar system but before we first observed it. This detachment, in addition to leaving the sail tumbling, would have changed its trajectory, meaning our estimation of which direction the object originally came from is incorrect. In any case, the probe is now busy replicating, perhaps on the surface of Mercury. In a few years an army of robots will launch from there and invade the rest of the solar system!
Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe would first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it.
"Colonization of Mercury appears to be a very real and practical possibility, whereas colonization of Mars or the other planets, moons or asteroids is really more in the realm of fantasy."
A big advantage of Mercury over mars is higher light intensity: "One very important advantage is the high solar light intensity, which is stronger than on Earth by a factor of 10.6 at perihelion and 4.6 at aphelion"
> Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe would first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it.
It is based on TIME but our conception of it would be independent.
I think a lot of what's part of the drake equation is merited on overlap. It's entirely possible that other civilizations have been created and died out LONG before mammals even evolved.
IF you factor in just the last 200 years of human technological advancement it's plausible in another 200 we will have either destroyed ourselves or evolved into gods.
Either way we're not going to be talking to anyone in the universe.
I think it's plausible that a god would not want to talk to another intelligent civilization. Why would we? We would be to a god what bacteria is to us.
I don't really have a conversation with the bacteria infecting a wound. I just take antibiotics.
Mercury provides solar power but you need a lot more energy to get from there to earth. The asteroid belt still provides adequate solar power with I'd guess an easier ability to 'fall on the earth'. It wasn't clear whether the goal of your invader was destruction or takeover. Falling rocks would do the destruction job.
> Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe would first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it.
Are you sure it's a coincidence? Imagine you are an intergalactic species that advances yourself by invading other worlds and stealing the inhabitants' knowledge and technology. What would be the best time to invade? I would suggest waiting as long as possible in their technological advancement but just before they develop the ability to defend themselves.
I thought one of the main issues arising with the "alien tech" theory is that this object was moving too slowly to ever make it to our solar system in any timely manner? Thats not to say it couldn't have slowed down prior to us finding it, but if its a detached light sail why wouldn't the alien probe have detached it at higher speeds to have less mass to slow down?
> Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe would first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it.
Alternately, this implies that we're visited all the time, but usually by robotic probes flying through the solar system for brief visits before being disposed of responsibly and cleanly.
...and also first arrive so soon (comparatively speaking) after the publication of The Mote in God’s Eye — an excellent novel by Larry Niven whose plot starts with the arrival of a light-sail powered tube.
I thought you were going to say that’s the the discarded lightsail from a probe that’s thousands of years old, and all we were never the target of it. It’s just space trash now.
Speaking of pet theories, here is mine: There exists a sentry system of interstellar buoys that get sucked into star systems passing by. Perhaps with a solar sail, so they can control a bit which stars they want to take a closer look at. Our solar system become "recently" a candidate for obvious reasons. The probe made its analysis and plotted a fast escape, sending a tight laser beam to the next closest relay station. A fleet of planet biosphere erasing machine intelligence dispatch is on its way. Probably some ancient left over from AIGs engaged in eternal warfare. Hence a dead silent galaxy, a rather dark forest.
If we put half the energy we use up arguing about Oumuamua into detecting more interstellar objects we would have the data to end this debate.
I'm a fan of the pragmatic mathematical approach. This was the first thing detected. The chances that the first result is also any sort of outlier are very slim. Detect and track some more of these objects. I'd bet good money that Oumuamua's motion is very explainable once we get some better data from other, similar, objects.
> If we put half the energy we use up arguing about Oumuamua into detecting more interstellar objects we would have the data to end this debate
This HN comment was just the motivation I needed to get off my computer and rededicate myself to polishing eighteen 1.32m gold-plated beryllium hexagonal mirror segments.
Uh, the highest-funded terrestrial telescope project of the last 10 years has been the Rubin Observatory, which is intended to detect more interstellar objects (along with two other large goals - variability studies and galactic rotation curve studies to understand dark energy).
The effort spent arguing about Oumuamua is a tiny, microscopic fraction of grant money in astronomy.
(I work on software to detect interstellar objects)
We can just build a ship to chase down Oumuamua and end this debate. If it is no longer where a natural object with a passive trajectory should be well we have our answer. If it is there we can take a close look.
THe fact that another interstellar object was discovered so quickly made me lose hope in the artifact or ship idea though. Part of the appeal was the idea that interstellar meteors were not really a thing, but apparently they are.
Just like we're the only form of life that we've observed in the universe. The chances that the first result is also any sort of outlier are very slim. That's why with the decades of effort and sophisticated tools that we've employed, we've been able to find and study lifeforms on so many other planets.
If we put half the energy we use detecting more interstellar objects to building interstellar spacecraft we'd be able to fly to one to find out what it is.
If we put half the energy we use building interstellar spacecraft on neural implants we'd not worry about flying somewhere else to satiate our desires.
If we put half the energy we use working on neural implants on creating affordable housing and food production we wouldn't have people chasing after dreams of perceptual bliss.
If we put half the energy we put into affordable housing and food production into figuring out what Oumuamua was, we'd discover aliens and they'd solve all our problems.
> Asked if there is a clear leading candidate explanation for 'Oumuamua's acceleration, Loeb referred Live Science to a not-yet-released book he authored called "Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth," due for publication in January.
I don't know enough about the science to have an informed opinion, but it seems to me that if the main skeptic is also selling a book based in their exciting alternate theory, that's kinda a huge red flag.
First sign? The first was probably the irrigation canals spotted on mars. Then repeating radio signals. The face on mars. Tabby's star. Each had their day as the first sign. The first real detection won't be some slight variance that we debate for years but solid evidence. If Oumuamua was a triangle, that would be solid evidence. It isn't aliens until it is.
I follow the What da Math[0] channel on YouTube to keep up with the latest news on cosmology. I highly recommend it. Very thorough and with daily updates.
> Asked if there is a clear leading candidate explanation for 'Oumuamua's acceleration, Loeb referred Live Science to a not-yet-released book he authored called "Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth," due for publication in January.
Oh this is an article without substance just to promote a book?
Summary: hydrogen iceberg theory questioned as the expected lifespan of a hydrogen iceberg is likely too short, given the distance Oumuamua would have had to travel.
OK, suppose as proposed that the H2 in an object couldn't survive the journey. What makes us certain that Oumu is interstellar? Haven't seen that convincing argument (in human-readable form).
Voyagers I and II are leaving the solar system; they got the kinetic energy to do that. I'm not convinced that all plausible histories for that happening within the SS without human assistance have been explored. As for the makeup of the object ... that will remain hypothetical. Maybe if we'd seen it sooner ...
Are you suggesting that Oumu was some sort of Oort cloud object that was disturbed into a hyperbolic trajectory? That seems a lot less likely than Oumu originating outside of the sun's gravitational influence.
A nuclear powered probe could catch it assuming of course that it continues on a passive trajectory and doesn't change course. Obviously the longer we wait the harder it will get though.
This is pretty cool. I am constantly looking at current events and thinking to myself "what if aliens were watching this?". I feel like it sorta puts things in perspective for me. Seeing that this might be a possibility is sorta thrilling.
Why does it have to be a hydrogen snowball? Because no tail was detected that would have indicated a dirty methane-etc snowball? What about an stony asteroid-like object?
[+] [-] kentonv|5 years ago|reply
Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe would first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it.
[+] [-] monkeypizza|5 years ago|reply
"Colonization of Mercury appears to be a very real and practical possibility, whereas colonization of Mars or the other planets, moons or asteroids is really more in the realm of fantasy."
A big advantage of Mercury over mars is higher light intensity: "One very important advantage is the high solar light intensity, which is stronger than on Earth by a factor of 10.6 at perihelion and 4.6 at aphelion"
[+] [-] jameshart|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] knob|5 years ago|reply
I really enjoyed those!
[+] [-] burtonator|5 years ago|reply
It is based on TIME but our conception of it would be independent.
I think a lot of what's part of the drake equation is merited on overlap. It's entirely possible that other civilizations have been created and died out LONG before mammals even evolved.
IF you factor in just the last 200 years of human technological advancement it's plausible in another 200 we will have either destroyed ourselves or evolved into gods.
Either way we're not going to be talking to anyone in the universe.
I think it's plausible that a god would not want to talk to another intelligent civilization. Why would we? We would be to a god what bacteria is to us.
I don't really have a conversation with the bacteria infecting a wound. I just take antibiotics.
[+] [-] Kye|5 years ago|reply
https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Bajoran_lightship
[+] [-] NotSammyHagar|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bitwize|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jimhefferon|5 years ago|reply
Perhaps they observed I Love Lucy and Gilligan and came by to complain about spectrum pollution.
[+] [-] tobyjsullivan|5 years ago|reply
Are you sure it's a coincidence? Imagine you are an intergalactic species that advances yourself by invading other worlds and stealing the inhabitants' knowledge and technology. What would be the best time to invade? I would suggest waiting as long as possible in their technological advancement but just before they develop the ability to defend themselves.
[+] [-] LargoLasskhyfv|5 years ago|reply
The prologue is sufficient http://www.baen.com/chapters/W200203/0743435265___0.htm , the rest is a matter of taste.
Personally I found it to be hilarious :-)
[+] [-] Ancalagon|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] azernik|5 years ago|reply
Alternately, this implies that we're visited all the time, but usually by robotic probes flying through the solar system for brief visits before being disposed of responsibly and cleanly.
[+] [-] Florin_Andrei|5 years ago|reply
We've gained the ability to conceive of complex stuff only some thousands of years ago. Everything is "too soon" on that scale.
[+] [-] gorgoiler|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jonathankoren|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] novalis78|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hinkley|5 years ago|reply
Egg sac for a species of star-dwelling creatures. Hopefully they didn't arrive from Betelgeuse...
[+] [-] sandworm101|5 years ago|reply
I'm a fan of the pragmatic mathematical approach. This was the first thing detected. The chances that the first result is also any sort of outlier are very slim. Detect and track some more of these objects. I'd bet good money that Oumuamua's motion is very explainable once we get some better data from other, similar, objects.
[+] [-] themgt|5 years ago|reply
This HN comment was just the motivation I needed to get off my computer and rededicate myself to polishing eighteen 1.32m gold-plated beryllium hexagonal mirror segments.
[+] [-] spenczar5|5 years ago|reply
The effort spent arguing about Oumuamua is a tiny, microscopic fraction of grant money in astronomy.
(I work on software to detect interstellar objects)
[+] [-] misanthropian00|5 years ago|reply
THe fact that another interstellar object was discovered so quickly made me lose hope in the artifact or ship idea though. Part of the appeal was the idea that interstellar meteors were not really a thing, but apparently they are.
[+] [-] throwaway2019V|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|5 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] gfodor|5 years ago|reply
If we put half the energy we use building interstellar spacecraft on neural implants we'd not worry about flying somewhere else to satiate our desires.
If we put half the energy we use working on neural implants on creating affordable housing and food production we wouldn't have people chasing after dreams of perceptual bliss.
If we put half the energy we put into affordable housing and food production into figuring out what Oumuamua was, we'd discover aliens and they'd solve all our problems.
[+] [-] ekimekim|5 years ago|reply
I don't know enough about the science to have an informed opinion, but it seems to me that if the main skeptic is also selling a book based in their exciting alternate theory, that's kinda a huge red flag.
[+] [-] sandworm101|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] xyzzyz|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] henriquemaia|5 years ago|reply
[0] https://youtube.com/user/whatdamath
[+] [-] sulam|5 years ago|reply
The better version would be: "Journalism? Or Clickbait? Which idea makes less sense?"
"Scientific American" indeed.
[+] [-] ekianjo|5 years ago|reply
Oh this is an article without substance just to promote a book?
[+] [-] IAmGraydon|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] czzr|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] waynecochran|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] PopePompus|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] misanthropian00|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] m3kw9|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] elorant|5 years ago|reply
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24204323
[+] [-] 8bitsrule|5 years ago|reply
Voyagers I and II are leaving the solar system; they got the kinetic energy to do that. I'm not convinced that all plausible histories for that happening within the SS without human assistance have been explored. As for the makeup of the object ... that will remain hypothetical. Maybe if we'd seen it sooner ...
[+] [-] dodobirdlord|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rbanffy|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] aetherson|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] misanthropian00|5 years ago|reply
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