Epidemic modeler here. Do you consider the cases who carry the disease but not registered? (usually asymptomatic/mild symptomatic). Do you account e.g. for the delay between getting infected and being infective? Epidemic modeling is hard, risk estimation is harder, and combining it properly requires a lot of care.
Weird title, I didn't get quoted my micromorts! I think that projects like this owe people a slight debt of education.
They should at least list the odds of all conditional outcomes in a way consistent with total probability. For example instead of quoting a probability of contracting covid which the authors can't acertain they should quote the probability of being false negative/positive etc.
atemerev|5 years ago
alpineidyll3|5 years ago
They should at least list the odds of all conditional outcomes in a way consistent with total probability. For example instead of quoting a probability of contracting covid which the authors can't acertain they should quote the probability of being false negative/positive etc.