Regardless of what party you support, you've got to be impressed by the level of turnout this year. If we are judging by early voting alone, this is going to be a historic election.
I hope that media outlets are careful on election day given the amount of mail in ballots that will be cast. The vote may not be certified for weeks after election day and I hope the media understands the responsibility they have in not bowing into claims that it somehow says something about the legitimacy of the results.
considering 61M ballots were requested in the reporting states.. and there were 128M votes in the last election, this may look like almost half of the voters plan to vote by mail ballot.
Unfortunately, on both sides of the media aisle, that is a far-fetched fantasy.
I too would hope, but in reality, the delay will only add to the turmoil. Regardless who leads on Election Day (or night, when the physical polls are counted), we’ll see civil strife.
Hunker down, avoid certain cities with a propensity for non-peaceful civil unrest, and wait.
Having recently moved from a northern blue state to a southern red state, I have one foot in a very liberal social circle up north, and another in a very conservative social circle in the south. My friends in the north have already made up their minds that they won't accept a Trump-Pence victory. My friends in the south have likewise made up their minds that they won't accept a Biden-Harris victory. The two sides talk and think very similarly to each other, and they're making similar plans.
This will definitely be a popcorn.gif kind of election.
The color chosen for the map makes it seem like it's saying something about the party that's winning in each state, when it seems to be just an indicator of the number of votes received. Maybe it should be green or something instead.
Might be a UX mistake to show the states as blue.. that's what I thought first-- but look at the tallies below:
Party Count Percent
Democrats 84,833 55.1
Republicans 24,210 15.7
So the earliest mail in voters are heavily skewed Democratic. Numbers like that make me want to say that Republicans are afraid of voting by mail this election, but it's way to early to say.. maybe it's just Democratic fear of the USPS slowing up ballots.
33.6% of requested ballots by 65 and over voters, a group which represent about 18% of total voters. I hope my generation is planning to vote in person.
Interesting. I wonder if it says more about who feels like they are able to safely show up to the polls?
I am in the 18-25 demographic and many people I talk with are concerned about the integrity of the USPS handling their vote after the crisis caused by DeJoy. They are scared of what shenanigans might be pulled with their mail in ballots and plan to show up in person to avoid that. Even at the cost of their health.
You might be looking at the tradeoff of people weighing their vote and their health risks.
> I hope my generation is planning to vote in person.
Why is that? BallotTrax lets me see exactly where my ballot is and if it has been received. It's about the same level of transparency as inserting my ballot into the polling machine. The only difference being that at the polling machine I can see the number of counted ballots increment.
I recently learned that Trump outspent, by a wide margin, Hillary in 2016 on Facebook ads. It's suspected his Facebook ads helped him beat the odds more than conspiracies of Russian interference.
Right now, I see significantly more Trump ads online than Biden ads. The polls show that Biden has a large lead over Trump, but Biden's lack of online ads could skew things.
Another odd thing: The Democrats are only doing phone canvassing, not door-to-door. Door-to-door is much more effective than phone. I don't know about the Republicans, but after seeing pictures of packed rallies, I suspect they will do some door-to-door canvassing.
So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win.
But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins.
>Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December?
Nationwide violent rioting[1] after Trump wins more comfortably than expected, including nationwide swings toward him even in states he doesn't win, like California, New York, and Illinois. Trump wins Minnesota, and does way, way better than expected in Washington and Oregon (the latter possibly being a surprise Trump win).
[+] [-] greenduck|5 years ago|reply
I hope that media outlets are careful on election day given the amount of mail in ballots that will be cast. The vote may not be certified for weeks after election day and I hope the media understands the responsibility they have in not bowing into claims that it somehow says something about the legitimacy of the results.
[+] [-] black3r|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] spacephysics|5 years ago|reply
I too would hope, but in reality, the delay will only add to the turmoil. Regardless who leads on Election Day (or night, when the physical polls are counted), we’ll see civil strife.
Hunker down, avoid certain cities with a propensity for non-peaceful civil unrest, and wait.
[+] [-] ed25519FUUU|5 years ago|reply
I don’t see why it should have to take longer than a few days to count ballots.
[+] [-] HhE3334R7hf1lLF|5 years ago|reply
This will definitely be a popcorn.gif kind of election.
[+] [-] beaner|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] frazbin|5 years ago|reply
Party Count Percent Democrats 84,833 55.1 Republicans 24,210 15.7
So the earliest mail in voters are heavily skewed Democratic. Numbers like that make me want to say that Republicans are afraid of voting by mail this election, but it's way to early to say.. maybe it's just Democratic fear of the USPS slowing up ballots.
[+] [-] cardamomo|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] korneliov444|5 years ago|reply
https://github.com/ElectProject/Early-Vote-2020G
[+] [-] 0xfaded|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] greenduck|5 years ago|reply
I am in the 18-25 demographic and many people I talk with are concerned about the integrity of the USPS handling their vote after the crisis caused by DeJoy. They are scared of what shenanigans might be pulled with their mail in ballots and plan to show up in person to avoid that. Even at the cost of their health.
You might be looking at the tradeoff of people weighing their vote and their health risks.
[+] [-] dqv|5 years ago|reply
Why is that? BallotTrax lets me see exactly where my ballot is and if it has been received. It's about the same level of transparency as inserting my ballot into the polling machine. The only difference being that at the polling machine I can see the number of counted ballots increment.
[+] [-] bluntfang|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rtx|5 years ago|reply
[+] [-] me_me_me|5 years ago|reply
I am too cynical - said me washing down McBurger with Coke before taking a drag of my Marlboro.
[+] [-] unknown|5 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] sleepysysadmin|5 years ago|reply
Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December?
[+] [-] gwbas1c|5 years ago|reply
I recently learned that Trump outspent, by a wide margin, Hillary in 2016 on Facebook ads. It's suspected his Facebook ads helped him beat the odds more than conspiracies of Russian interference.
Right now, I see significantly more Trump ads online than Biden ads. The polls show that Biden has a large lead over Trump, but Biden's lack of online ads could skew things.
Another odd thing: The Democrats are only doing phone canvassing, not door-to-door. Door-to-door is much more effective than phone. I don't know about the Republicans, but after seeing pictures of packed rallies, I suspect they will do some door-to-door canvassing.
So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win.
But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins.
[+] [-] TMWNN|5 years ago|reply
Nationwide violent rioting[1] after Trump wins more comfortably than expected, including nationwide swings toward him even in states he doesn't win, like California, New York, and Illinois. Trump wins Minnesota, and does way, way better than expected in Washington and Oregon (the latter possibly being a surprise Trump win).
[1] As in 2016