When I first read Monty Hall problem, I actually thought it was blindingly obvious to switch. The fact the presenter had 2 doors to chose from and the one he opens is a goat _should_ increase the chance of the other one being not(goat) right?
Only if he's not obliged to open all the goat doors.
That's where the "imagine there are 1000 doors" extrapolations fail. If there are 1000 doors and Monty can choose to open just one, then there's no point switching to one of the other 998. Those comparisons only work if he is obliged to open every goat door.
dingaling|5 years ago
That's where the "imagine there are 1000 doors" extrapolations fail. If there are 1000 doors and Monty can choose to open just one, then there's no point switching to one of the other 998. Those comparisons only work if he is obliged to open every goat door.